The Most Popular Best Picture Pick, A Best Actor Dark Horse & More 2020 Oscars Betting Data
Getty Images. Pictured: Joaquin Phoenix
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With the 92nd Academy Awards rapidly approaching, how is the betting market taking shape?
FanDuel released their internal betting data for the 2020 Oscars, including how much each of the 16 categories the book is offering accounts for of their overall handle, as well as the top-three nominees for each award based on the book’s betting percentages.
Let’s run through some key takeaways then dig into the full data set (which is as of Friday).
Odds and betting percentages as of Friday and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Most Popular Best Picture Pick
No surprise here: Best Picture accounts for 46% of FanDuel’s overall Oscars handle.
It’s also no surprise that, as the favorite, 1917 (-200) is the most popular pick with 33% of the award’s handle. The World War I film is followed by Parasite (+350), which has the second-best odds, with 26%.
The third-most popular film according to these percentages, however, may come as a shock — Joker (+1100) has garnered 15% of the handle.
Fading The Favorite For Best Actress
Renée Zellweger (-1667) is one of the biggest favorites on the board, having swept this award at other major award shows thanks to her performance in Judy, but she doesn’t even crack the top-three nominees attracting the most attention at FanDuel.
Scarlett Johansson (+900) leads the way with 50% of that award’s handle for her role in Netflix’s Marriage Story while Cynthia Erivo (+1600) and Saoirse Ronan (+2900) round it out with 25% and 10% of the handle thanks to their roles in Harriet and Little Women, respectively. Notably, Ronan has the longest odds of the five actresses nominated.
Still, this category accounts for only 3% of FanDuel’s overall Oscars handle.
A Dark Horse Pick for Best Actor
Other than 1917 (-6000) for Best Cinematography, Joaquin Phoenix (-3500) is the largest favorite on the board.
To say that Best Actor is his award to lose would be an understatement. But despite the fact he’s long been considered a lock for his leading role in the Joker, he’s only the third-favorite according to FanDuel’s betting data with 15% of the Best Actor handle.
It’s Adam Driver (+1400) — who starred opposite Johansson in Marriage Story — and Leonardo DiCaprio (+2000) who are tied with 36% of this handle each. This is DiCaprio’s fifth Best Actor nomination at the Oscars, which he earned for Once Upon A Time in Hollywood. He’s won only once before (in 2016 for The Revenant) after failing to win three straight times.
Like Best Actress, this award accounts for only 3% of the book’s overall handle.
The 3-Way Race for Best Director
The director accounting for the biggest piece of this handle (28%) has the third-longest odds in this category: Quentin Tarantino (+1400) for Once Upon A Time in Hollywood. He’s followed by Bong Joon Ho (+350) of Parasite and the favorite, Sam Mendes (-470) of 1917, with 24% of the handle each.
Best Director accounts for 7% of FanDuel’s overall handle — tied for the third-biggest percentage with the next award.
The Popular Underdog for Best Original Screenplay
The biggest underdog we’ll highlight here? 1917 (+1800) for Best Original Screenplay, which is bringing in 23% of the award’s handle despite having the fourth-longest odds among the five nominees.
Parasite (-210), though, is unsurprisingly attracting 46% as the favorite with Once Upon A Time in Hollywood (+138) rounding out the top three with 18%.
The Popularity of Best Animated Feature
This category owns the single-most popular pick across the board at FanDuel: Toy Story 4 (-112) with 70% of the handle for this award.
Curiously, Best Animated Feature is the second-most popular category at the book, accounting for 12% of the overall handle.