The Golden Globes kicked off awards season, but now attention turns to one of its biggest stages: the Grammys. The 68th Annual Grammy Awards will be handed out on Sunday, February 1, 2026, during a ceremony at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles.
Kendrick Lamar’s “Not Like Us” swept all five of its nominations last year, including Record of the Year. Nominated once again in the category, the rapper faces stiff competition from a deep field of established stars, all vying to take the crown.
Polymarket, a prediction marketplace that blends traditional financial mechanisms with cutting-edge forecasting systems, allows users to wager on which song will win the Grammy for Record of the Year. With the market beginning to take shape, here’s a look at the leading contenders and who bettors currently favor.
Record of the Year Odds
Odds are via Polymarket and update every hour.
“Luther,” by Lamar and SZA, has emerged as the clear frontrunner to win the award. Holding a 42% implied probability, it has led the Polymarket market for the past three months and opened the year at nearly 50%.
The track capped off a dominant 2025, spending 13 weeks atop the Billboard Hot 100, becoming the most-streamed song in the U.S. across major platforms.
Several of its main challengers have lost ground in recent weeks. “APT.,” the infectious collaboration between Rosé and Bruno Mars that was initially released as a single and became one of the most-streamed songs worldwide, sits at 19% and is still viewed as a potential upset pick.
Just behind, at 18%, is “Abracadabra” by Lady Gaga. The singer enjoyed a hugely successful year with her album Mayhem, which also included the Bruno Mars duet “Die With a Smile,” and she’ll be looking to cap it off with a Grammy win in this category.
When it comes to standout years, however, few can rival Bad Bunny. The Puerto Rican superstar, who is set to headline the Super Bowl halftime show next month and finished 2025 as Spotify’s Global Top Artist, holds a 16% chance of winning Record of the Year with “DTMF.”
Further down the board is a group of long shots sharing 3% odds: “Anxiety” by Doechii, “Manchild” by Sabrina Carpenter, and “Wildflower” by Billie Eilish. Rounding out the list of nominees is “The Subway” by Chappell Roan, currently priced at 2%.
