It’s coming. The videogame release expected to outearn every movie and music album this year. Rockstar’s first new game in 13 years. The return of one of gaming’s defining names: GTA. Digital preload for Grand Theft Auto VI started Nov. 10, and the game’s reported review embargo lands in 6 days, on Nov. 18, one day ahead of the Nov. 19 release.
Prediction markets are already treating the Metacritic score like the last big open question before launch. Kalshi and Polymarket both run live markets on the number: the bar is set incredibly high, and the question now is whether GTA 6 reviewers say whether it’ll live up to Rockstar’s past games.
Gta 6 Review Odds: The 96+, 97+ and 98+ Lines
Both Kalshi and Polymarket are running Metacritic prediction markets on GTA 6, and traders on both platforms seem confident the game will clear the high bar Rockstar has set for itself with its past releases. Polymarket’s GTA VI Metacritic Score market has traded close to $89,600 so far. Here’s where its ladder sits this week:
| Score threshold | Implied odds |
| 90+ | 98% |
| 92+ | 99% |
| 94+ | 95% |
| 96+ | 78% |
| 97+ | 59% |
| 98+ | 29% |
That’s a market expecting GTA 6 to land comfortably in the high 90s, though sentiment on the top end has cooled a little: both the 96+ and 98+ lines ticked down in the past day. Kalshi takes a different shape, with a single forecast number instead of a ladder, and that figure currently sits at 96, up slightly from where it had been.
Scores like these would put GTA 6 among the best-reviewed games of the year, on par with The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time remake, which has averaged a 96 on Metacritic since its Nov. 5 launch, and would make it a serious contender for Game of the Year at The Game Awards.
New: Polymarket College Football Picks, Odds and Combos for Week 11
GTA 6 Review Embargo: Reported for Nov. 18 Around 6 to 7 a.m. ET
None of those numbers mean anything until reviews actually post, and the timing on that is still a rumor rather than an announcement. Industry insider NateTheHate said on X that Rockstar had begun sending review code to outlets, writing simply that the “review embargo is November 18th.”
Insider Gaming says it independently verified that date. A separate post attributed to a leaker narrowed the window further, putting the lift around 6 to 7 AM ET, one day ahead of launch, with some outlets possibly held back until release day itself. Rockstar and Take-Two haven’t confirmed any of this publicly, so treat the hour as an educated guess, not a fixed schedule.
Don't forget to grab the Kalshi promo codeandread our Kalshi review.
GTA 6 Preload: Dates and What It Means for Refunds
The preload calendar has moved since it was first announced. Rockstar originally set Nov. 12 for both digital and physical preorders. A newer post on the studio’s own Newswire blog pushed the digital download up two days, to local midnight on Nov. 10 for PS5 and midnight GMT for Xbox Series X/S, with the file reported at 212 GB.
The physical edition doesn’t ship on a disc: the box comes with a download code instead, and that code unlocks the same Nov. 12 preload once it arrives. Preloading only lets the files sit on your drive early: it doesn’t charge anything extra, and it doesn’t lock in the purchase; standard cancellation terms for whichever storefront you used still apply.
Download the Action Network app for more GTA VI, videogames and prediction markets analysis.
GTA 6 vs. GTA V: The Metacritic Benchmark
Rockstar’s track record is a big part of why the market leans high instead of average. Grand Theft Auto V scored a 97 on PS3 back in 2013, and Grand Theft Auto IV still holds the studio’s best mark at 98, with Red Dead Redemption 2 also landing a 97. Hitting 97 would put GTA 6 level with two of Rockstar’s best-regarded games; hitting 98 would make it the studio’s best-reviewed release yet, which is a big part of why that particular line trades so much lower than the rest.
| Game | Year | Metacritic |
| Grand Theft Auto III | 2001 | 97 |
| Grand Theft Auto: Vice City | 2002 | 95 |
| Red Dead Revolver | 2004 | 74 |
| Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas | 2004 | 95 |
| Grand Theft Auto IV | 2008 | 98 |
| Red Dead Redemption | 2010 | 95 |
| Grand Theft Auto V | 2013 | 97 |
| Red Dead Redemption 2 | 2018 | 97 |
| Grand Theft Auto VI | 2026 | TBD |
What Else the Markets Price: PC Release, Album Features and Radio Songs
The score isn’t the only GTA 6 outcome with real activity behind it.
- PC release: Polymarket runs a date ladder putting a PC version out by Dec. 31, 2026 at just 3%, by March 31, 2027 at 33%, by June 30, 2027 at 57%, and by the end of 2027 at 78%. Kalshi has a related but separate contract asking whether Rockstar ships the PC version before August 2027, currently at 43%: a reminder that the two platforms aren’t always pricing the exact same question.
- Soundtrack: a Polymarket market on which artist lands on the in-game album has Kodak Black as the clear favorite at 92%.
- Radio: separate Polymarket contract on which songs make it onto the game’s radio stations at launch has Farruko’s “Pepas” out front at 76%.
If reviews do land on Nov. 18 as reported, the Metacritic odds above will have real scores to react to within hours, and given how much they’ve already moved this week, don’t expect them to sit still.
If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.
