Every January, millions of Americans set New Year’s resolutions. They plan to work out more, eat better, save money, or build healthier routines. And every year, many of those goals fade faster than expected.
To understand where New Year’s resolutions are hardest to keep, Action Network surveyed 2,629 U.S. adults about their resolution behavior and combined those responses with state-level data on work demands, stress, and lifestyle pressure across all 50 states.
We first measured a Resolution Break Rate, based on the share of respondents in each state who said they have broken a resolution in the past or expect to break one in the coming year. We then layered in work and lifestyle pressure indicators, including average weekly work hours, stress, and well-being rankings, along with post-January drops in self-improvement search interest observed since 2020.
Action Network’s odds experts combined these factors into implied probabilities and American moneyline odds to create the final rankings. Implied probability reflects how likely residents are to break a New Year’s resolution, while American odds express that likelihood in familiar betting-style terms.
Key Highlights
- Louisiana ranks first overall, with a 30.9% implied probability of residents breaking a New Year’s resolution. Long average work weeks at 36.5 hours and a 46% resolution break rate create the toughest environment for follow-through.
- Nebraska and Alabama follow closely behind, both posting survey-based resolution break rates of 46% or higher. Nebraska’s 47% rate is the highest in the study, while Alabama pairs high break rates with above-average work hours.
- Texas stands out among large states, ranking seventh overall. Texans report a 42% resolution break rate and show the steepest post-January drop in self-improvement searches in the country at 8.3%.
- Massachusetts leads the Northeast, placing fifth overall. Despite moderate work hours, a sharp drop in self-improvement search interest, and a 44% resolution break rate push, its implied probability above 27%.
- California and New York both rank in the bottom 10, despite their reputations for high-pressure lifestyles. Both states show lower resolution break rates and more stable post-January self-improvement interest than much of the country.
- Nevada and Connecticut anchor the bottom of the rankings, with implied probabilities below 9%. Connecticut ranks last overall, combining the lowest resolution break rate in the study with relatively stable self-improvement search behavior.
Top 10 States Most Likely To Break A New Year’s Resolution
These states combine high survey-based resolution break rates with above-average work and lifestyle pressure, putting them at the top of the rankings nationwide.
1. Louisiana
Louisiana ranks first overall, driven by a 46% resolution break rate and the longest average work week in the top 10 at 36.5 hours. Weaker overall well-being and limited recovery time further compound the challenge of sticking to new routines.
- Implied probability of breaking a New Year’s resolution: 30.93%
- American odds: +223
2. Nebraska
Nebraska places second, anchored by the highest resolution break rate in the study at 47%. While work hours are more moderate, a stress and well-being ranking of 26.7 out of 50 and faster post-January disengagement still push it near the top.
- Implied probability: 29.87%
- American odds: +235
3. Alabama
Alabama ranks third, pairing a 46% resolution break rate with above-average work hours at 34.7 per week. Elevated lifestyle pressure makes consistency harder once early motivation fades.
- Implied probability: 28.96%
- American odds: +245
4. Mississippi
Mississippi lands fourth, combining a 44.5% resolution break rate with a stress and well-being ranking of 26.7 out of 50. Longer weeks and fewer recovery buffers make sustained habit-building more difficult.
- Implied probability: 28.43%
- American odds: +252
5. Massachusetts
Massachusetts rounds out the top five with a 44% resolution break rate and a 6.2% post-January drop in self-improvement search interest. Despite moderate work hours, motivation appears to fall off faster than in many other states.
- Implied probability: 27.51%
- American odds: +264
6. Arkansas
Arkansas ranks sixth overall, supported by a 41% resolution break rate and long average work weeks at 34.9 hours. Ongoing work pressure leaves less flexibility for maintaining new goals.
- Implied probability: 26.59%
- American odds: +276
7. Texas
Texas places seventh, pairing a 42% resolution break rate with the largest post-January drop in self-improvement searches in the country at 8.3%. Fast disengagement after January reinforces its high ranking.
- Implied probability: 25.81%
- American odds: +287
8. Oklahoma
Oklahoma ranks eighth, combining a 41.5% resolution break rate with average weekly work hours of 35.0. Higher overall lifestyle pressure limits follow-through once routines normalize.
- Implied probability: 25.51%
- American odds: +292
9. Montana
Montana sits ninth overall, driven by a 41% resolution break rate and a stress and well-being ranking of 22.9 out of 50. Broader well-being challenges weigh more heavily than work hours alone.
- Implied probability: 25.45%
- American odds: +293
10. Kansas
Kansas completes the top 10, pairing a 42% resolution break rate with a 6.4% post-January drop in self-improvement search interest. Motivation appears to taper off earlier than in much of the country.
- Implied probability: 24.77%
- American odds: +304
States Least Likely To Break A New Year’s Resolution
These states show lower survey-based resolution break rates alongside more favorable work or lifestyle conditions, making residents more likely to stick with their New Year’s goals.
50. Connecticut
Connecticut ranks last overall, with the lowest resolution break rate in the study at 28% and a relatively favorable stress and well-being ranking of 21.3 out of 50. More stable routines appear to support longer-term follow-through.
- Implied probability of breaking a New Year’s resolution: 8.79%
- American odds: +1037
49. Nevada
Nevada places second from the bottom, anchored by a 29% resolution break rate and a stronger stress and well-being ranking of 19.9 out of 50. Despite higher work hours, residents show steadier post-January engagement.
- Implied probability: 8.81%
- American odds: +1035
48. South Dakota
South Dakota ranks among the least likely states to see resolutions break, pairing a 29.5% resolution break rate with moderate average work hours at 33.3 per week. Lifestyle balance appears to help sustain new habits.
- Implied probability: 11.85%
- American odds: +744
47. South Carolina
South Carolina lands just above the bottom three, driven by a 31.5% resolution break rate and a stress and well-being ranking of 27.7 out of 50. While pressure exists, follow-through remains stronger than in most states.
- Implied probability: 12.35%
- American odds: +709
46. Indiana
Indiana places 46th overall, combining a 32.5% resolution break rate with one of the smallest post-January drops in self-improvement search interest in the country. Motivation appears to hold more consistently past January.
- Implied probability: 13.21%
- American odds: +657
45. Michigan
Michigan ranks fifth from the bottom, pairing a 31.5% resolution break rate with a notably strong stress and well-being ranking of 12.6 out of 50, one of the best in the study. Stronger recovery and balance support habit-building.
- Implied probability: 13.68%
- American odds: +632
44. New York
New York appears in the bottom 10 with a 33% break rate and shorter average work weeks at 32.8 hours. Despite its high-pressure reputation, residents show relatively stable resolution behavior.
- Implied probability: 13.75%
- American odds: +627
43. New Hampshire
New Hampshire ranks 43rd overall, supported by a 32.5% resolution break rate and moderate work hours at 33.3 per week. Consistency appears stronger than in much of the country.
- Implied probability: 14.34%
- American odds: +597
42. Georgia
Georgia lands just outside the bottom 10, combining a 36.5% resolution break rate with longer average work hours at 34.3 per week. Despite heavier workloads, follow-through remains stronger than in many states.
- Implied probability: 14.38%
- American odds: +595
41. California
California completes the bottom 10, pairing a 34% resolution break rate with a stress and well-being ranking of 22.1 out of 50. More stable self-improvement engagement helps offset work and lifestyle pressure.
- Implied probability: 14.52%
- American odds: +589
What Separates the Top and Bottom States
The strongest differences between states most and least likely to break New Year’s resolutions show up in the likelihood of following through, stress, and how quickly engagement fades after January.
- Resolution break rates show a wide and consistent gap.
The top 10 states' post-resolution break rates range from 41.0% to 47.0%, with most clustered in the mid-40% range. By comparison, the bottom 10 states record resolution break rates ranging from 28.0% to 36.5%, with several states at or below 31%. This creates a clear 10–15 percentage-point gap in resolution failure. - Stress and well-being are a stronger divider than work hours.
Top-10 states generally rank worse on stress and well-being, most commonly landing in the 20s or higher, while bottom-10 states more frequently post stronger well-being rankings, including multiple states in the teens. Average weekly work hours differ only modestly—about 1 hour more per week in top-10 states—indicating workload alone does not explain the gap. - Post-January momentum fades faster in high break-rate states.
States in the top 10 experience larger drops in self-improvement search activity after January, often between 4% and 8%, signaling a quicker loss of engagement once the new year begins. Bottom-10 states generally show smaller declines, typically closer to 2%–4%, pointing to more sustained follow-through. - Regional patterns add context.
The top 10 are heavily concentrated in the South, while the bottom 10 are more geographically mixed, with stronger representation from the Northeast and Midwest, regions that also tend to score better on stress and routine-stability measures.
Bottom line:
The data indicates that higher stress levels and faster post-January drop-offs in self-improvement engagement are the key factors that separate states with the highest New Year’s resolution break rates from those with habits that are more likely to stick.
Is your state not listed in the top or bottom rankings? Check the table below to see where your state ranks in our full list, from most to least likely to break a New Year’s resolution.
All odds and probabilities presented in this study are for analytical and entertainment purposes only and do not reflect individual outcomes. If you are interested in how odds are used in real-world markets, you can explore our guide to the Best Prediction Market Apps or learn more about the Kalshi referral code.
Methodology
To identify and rank U.S. states where residents are most likely to break New Year’s resolutions, Action Network combined survey-based data on resolution behavior with state-level work and lifestyle pressure indicators into a single, comparable ranking.
Survey-Based Resolution Behavior
Action Network analyzed results from the Better Collective – USA New Year’s Resolutions Survey, conducted online by Research Without Barriers (RWB) between December 10 and December 16, 2025. The sample comprised 2,629 U.S. adults.
Survey respondents were asked two questions:
- Have you ever broken a New Year’s resolution in the past?
- Do you expect that you may break a New Year’s resolution in the coming year?
Responses to these questions were combined to calculate each state’s Resolution Break Rate (%), reflecting both past resolution behavior and expected future behavior.
All research was conducted in accordance with the MRS Codes of Conduct (2023) and the ICC/ESOMAR World Research Guidelines. Research Without Barriers is registered with the Information Commissioner’s Office and is fully compliant with GDPR and the Data Protection Act (2018).
Work and Lifestyle Pressure Indicators
To account for external pressures that can make resolutions harder to maintain, we incorporated three additional state-level indicators:
- Average Weekly Work Hours (2024), where longer hours suggest less time for recovery and habit-building
- Stress and Well-Being Rank (1 = Best, 50 = Worst), capturing employment and income stress, commuting burden, sleep quality, physical and emotional health, work environment conditions, and community factors
- Drop in Self-Improvement Search Interest (%), measuring how quickly interest in fitness, diet, and productivity topics declines after January, based on search trends observed since 2020
Rankings and Odds
All indicators were normalized and combined into a single scale, with higher scores indicating greater difficulty maintaining New Year’s resolutions. Action Network’s odds experts then translated those results into implied probabilities and equivalent American moneyline odds, which determine the final state rankings.
You can find the full data set here.
