The Scottish Highlands are colder than ever as Season 4 of The Traitors enters its prime. Since the explosive three-episode premiere on January 8, 2026, the game has evolved into a masterclass in betrayal. With the finale set for February 26, the current market on Kalshi reflects a season dominated by one name: Rob Rausch.
This reality TV prediction market on the Kalshi app is one of the trending markets out there, having amassed $130,758 in trading volume as of the time of publication.
If you're interested in trading on the winner of Season 4 of The Traitors, use the Kalshi promo code for a $10 new-user offer:
Live Odds for the Winner of The Traitors Season 4
Check out these live odds from Kalshi for the winner of The Traitors Season 4:
Prediction markets apps such as Kalshi verify results via official sources—for this market, the prediction market will use Peacock as its source of truth.
The Frontrunner: Rob Rausch
Rausch, the Love Island USA breakout, is the overwhelming favorite to win Season 4 of The Traitors. Operating as a Traitor, Rob has navigated the field with surgical precision. His most audacious move came in Episode 6, where he cast a vote against his fellow Traitor, Lisa Rinna, to bolster his "Faithful" credentials. By sacrificing unity for longevity, Rob has positioned himself as the player most likely to reach the end undetected.
The Chasers
While the market is heavily favoring Rob Rausch, other contenders that still have a chance to win it all include:
Candiace Dillard Bassett: A fellow Traitor who has proven she can "kill with a smile." While her odds have dipped due to the tension between the Traitors, her social maneuvering remains top-tier.
Mark Ballas: The Dancing with the Stars alum is the highest-rated Faithful. His low-profile strategy has kept him off the Traitors' murder list, though he’ll need to start hunting successfully to stay relevant.
Lisa Rinna: Despite Rob’s betrayal and intense scrutiny from Colton Underwood, Rinna is still fighting. Her survival likely hinges on the "Black Banquet" twists and her ability to deflect suspicion.
How The Traitors Works
In The Traitors, 23 contestants compete for a prize pot of up to $250,000. Host Alan Cumming secretly selects a small group of "Traitors" who must "murder" one "Faithful" player each night.
The Faithful must use the daily missions and "Round Table" discussions to identify the saboteurs. Each evening, the group votes to banish one person they believe is a Traitor. If any Traitors remain at the finale, they steal the entire pot; if only Faithful contestants remain, they split the gold.
What Is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
