Breece Hall Fantasy Football Outlook: Jets Cap His Upside, But Hall Is Still the Top Rookie To Target In Drafts
Justin Casterline/Getty Images. Pictured: Jets rookie RB Breece Hall
- Action's fantasy football expert Samantha Previte partnered with longtime NFL GM Randy Mueller to forecast expectations for Breece Hall.
- Keep reading to see Samantha's landing spot grade for the Jets rookie RB as well as Randy's pre-draft evaluation below.
Who Is Breece Hall?
by Samantha Previte, fantasy football analyst for Action
As exciting as the 2022 NFL Draft's wide receiver class was, the most talked about player in the fantasy football space was a running back, despite not a single one being drafted in the first round.
Running backs are interesting because, unlike other positions that can have sharper learning curves when transitioning to the NFL level, running backs can be immediately impactful and their value for fantasy football often outweighs their actual NFL value.
Enter: Breece Hall, who did not have to wait long to hear his name called on Day 2 and could be the most valuable rookie for fantasy in 2022.
On paper, the 20-year-old Hall is a flashy prospect who checks all the boxes. Standing at 5-foot-11 and 217 pounds, he possesses a solid build to be a workhorse back.
Hall has a proven track record at the collegiate level, recording 718 rushing attempts for 3,941 yards and 50 touchdowns in three seasons at Iowa State. He is also a talented pass-catcher who had 82 passes for 732 yards and six touchdowns over that span.
Hall garnered significant hype at the NFL Combine and recorded a swift 4.39-second 40-yard-dash and a massive 40-inch vertical jump. Hall has drawn criticism as a NFL prospect, though, because of his massive 800-touch tenure for the Cyclones. Later in this article, former NFL GM Randy Mueller calls out Hall’s inconsistency on tape and calls him “an enigma” and “scout’s nightmare.”
Breece Hall Fantasy Football Outlook
by Samantha Previte, fantasy football analyst for Action
Landing Spot Grade: B-
It almost goes without saying that Hall’s stock takes a hit ending up on the Jets, who have had a top four pick in four of the last five drafts and have not had a winning season since 2015.
Their lack of success has not lent itself to game scripts that favor the run: They ranked bottom six in rushing yards per game (98.1), bottom two in rushing play percentage (36.7%), and dead last in rushing attempts per game (22.4) last season – all of which could negatively impact Hall’s fantasy production.
It's worth noting that Hall does get a slightly higher grade than the Jets' first-round selection, Garrett Wilson (C+), since running backs are less impacted than wide receivers by subpar quarterback play.
The Jets selecting a running back so early in the draft was a bit of a head-scratcher given their other positional needs and Michael Carter’s success. Carter, 23, was drafted two rounds later than Hall a year ago and showed promise both on the ground and through the air. Carter recorded 183 total touches for 964 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns in 14 appearances during his rookie campaign.
Tevin Coleman, 29, and Ty Johnson, 24, are next on the running back depth chart. The pair combined for just north of 1,000 scrimmage yards last season.
Carter – who is three inches shorter than Hall – will likely be shifted into more of a third-down role. Hall is a competent receiver as well, but all signs point to this becoming a committee, which could be problematic with only 22 attempts per game to go around.
2022 Fantasy Potential: High-End RB2 Upside
In spite of all the discourse on Hall as a prospect, I am much more concerned with his landing spot.
While it’s true the Jets have made numerous offseason upgrades, they have produced exactly one 1,000-yard rusher in the last nine seasons (Chris Ivory in 2015). They will need to find themselves in significantly more positive game scripts for Hall to see enough touches to reach his apex for fantasy football.
Hall carries even more value in dynasty formats and is the consensus 1.01 in rookie drafts.
Breece Hall Pre-Draft Evaluation
by Randy Mueller, former NFL general manager and team executive
Hall is a scout's nightmare when it comes to separating numbers on paper from what's on tape.
He has size, runs fast (4.39), has a 40-inch vertical and 10-foot-6 broad jump. Some analysts point to his TCU game as the neon sign of his skills. Having watched that game, it may have been the single-most dreadful effort of tackling by a college team that I have seen in years by a TCU defense that flat out quit.
I see flashes with Hall.
He has north-south burst and body control to spin and make defenders miss, but I see a lot of runs on which he is easily brought to the ground with arm tackles. I see a back who picks his spots in pass protection and lacks details in his route running as a receiver. He does have soft hands, can adjust outside his frame to extend and catch, and is shifty at his break points. But I don’t see power or tackle-breaking ability. He does have natural vision to bounce to the edge when his hole is not defined, but other times, he goes down too easily.
Hall is an enigma for me as an evaluator, which sounds crazy for a guy with 715 career rushing attempts and a 5.5 career average per carry. There should be plenty of reps to evaluate, right? Hall just picks his spots in the film that I watched.
Because of this inconsistency, Hall is not a first-round value in my book. I don’t see a back who plays to that 4.39 speed or the explosion that those jump numbers should transfer to on the field.
I like him because I see the flashes, but I don't trust him 100% to give everything on every play.
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