Chelsea vs. Sevilla Odds, Picks, Betting Predictions for Wednesday Champions League (Dec. 2)

Chelsea vs. Sevilla Odds

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The Champions League group stage is nearing its completion, with the top two teams in Group E battling for the top spot on Wednesday.

Chelsea and Sevilla have both already qualified for the knockout stage, but this match will likely determine who wins the group. Sevilla needs a draw (1-1 or higher scoring) or win to clinch the tiebreaker over Chelsea and be in the frontrunner spot to take the group edge.

Meanwhile, the Blues need a win or a goalless draw to pull ahead of Sevilla entering the final round of matches next week.

Chelsea

As we saw on Sunday when Chelsea and Tottenham played to a goalless draw, this Chelsea attack still hasn’t quite figured out how to break down teams who don’t look to come out of their shell and press higher up the pitch. That’s exactly what Sevilla will do here, especially given the qualifying circumstances.

Spurs neutralized Chelsea’s attack in the game on Sunday as Timo Werner was forced too wide and too deep to get on the ball. The Blues did not commit their fullbacks forward at the risk of being exposed on the counter, and thus viewers were left to a stale game.

In many ways, that’s not much different from how the first matchup between these two sides played out at Stamford Bridge. Sevilla and Chelsea played to a goalless draw and Chelsea had the better of the chances, but neither side created much. The Blues expected goals numbers have steadily improved on defense since Thiago Silva and Edouard Mendy have become first XI regulars, and N’Golo Kanté is playing as deep as ever to prevent counters and doing so effectively.

All of this makes me pretty confident in saying that Chelsea should be able to contain Sevilla’s middling attack so far in 2020, and that this game probably will not feature lots of goals and wide-open play.

Sevilla

Munir’s goal in stoppage time against Krasnodar secured them a spot in the Round of 16, and is a continuation of their excellent play in Europe. Sevilla thrashed Rennes, put up an impressive come-from-behind yet deserved win against Krasnodar in the reverse fixture, and then won it late last Tuesday.

Their form and performances in the league are middling, but you can always count on Sevilla’s defense to bring it when they need to. They’re a well-drilled defensive side who are happy to let Chelsea have the ball. I’m sure the approach will be similar to Mourinho’s come Wednesday afternoon.

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Analysis

Chelsea are in the better league form as they sit in fourth in non-penalty expected goal difference in the EPL, compared to sixth for Sevilla. Both leagues are a jumbled mess at the top right now, and neither has consistently put up great performances in domestic or European play.

I’m expecting a similar redux of the first meeting between these two teams, where chances were hard to come by. Chelsea will push for a goal, but manager Frank Lampard still doesn’t exactly have his front attacking group connecting right.

Because I like this game to go under, I’ll also look to play a draw here at +220 or better. If this game is tied late, I don’t see either team selling out to try to get all three points, and those are exactly the kind of games I like to take draws. Especially ones I already believe are more likely to go under.

The pick: Draw (+240), Under 2.5 goals (-107)