The best Monday Night Football predictions for Week 1 center on Broncos vs. Chiefs, with Denver trying to extend its three game winning streak against Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC and ESPN, and prediction markets are pricing the matchup much closer than a typical Chiefs home opener.
Our Monday Night Football predictions lean toward Denver at its current price, while new users can also activate the Kalshi promo codeACTION to receive a $25 bonus after completing $25 in qualifying trades.
Kansas City remains the favorite, but injuries along the offensive line give Denver's pass rush a legitimate path to controlling this matchup. Below, we'll break down the current Kalshi prices, our Broncos vs. Chiefs pick and how the Kalshi welcome offer works. Keep in mind, that this is a great alternative to NFL betting promos in states without sports betting.
Best Monday Night Football Predictions for Broncos vs. Chiefs
Kansas City enters Monday night as the favorite, but the prediction market is giving Denver a meaningful chance to pull the upset.
| Outcome | Kalshi Price | $100 Buy Pays |
|---|---|---|
| Chiefs to Win | About 56¢ | About $179 |
| Broncos to Win | About 44¢ | About $227 |
A Chiefs contract around 56¢ represents roughly a 56% implied probability of a Kansas City victory. Denver's contract carries the larger potential return at approximately 44¢.
These prices can change throughout the day as traders enter and exit positions, so confirm the live market before making a trade.
Denver's biggest advantage is its pass rush. Kansas City will be without left tackle Josh Simmons, leaving undrafted rookie Khalil Benson in line to protect Patrick Mahomes' blind side in his first NFL start.
That is a difficult assignment against a Broncos front led by Nik Bonitto. Denver produced one of the NFL's most disruptive pass rushes last season and should have opportunities to pressure Mahomes without consistently committing extra defenders.
The Broncos have also won three consecutive meetings with Kansas City. Mahomes only played in one of those games, so the streak deserves some context, but Denver has shown it can match up with the Chiefs defensively.
At roughly 44¢, Denver offers enough upside to make the outright winner contract my preferred play among the Monday Night Football predictions.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction
The matchup along Kansas City's offensive line is the biggest reason to consider Denver.
Benson is moving to the left side after primarily playing right tackle in college, and his first NFL start comes against a defense built to create pressure. That becomes even more important with Mahomes returning from the knee injury that ended his 2025 season.
Kansas City still has several advantages. Arrowhead Stadium gives the Chiefs one of the league's strongest home field environments, Mahomes remains the best quarterback in the matchup, and Kansas City added Kenneth Walker III to strengthen the backfield.
Denver has enough talent on the other side to keep the game close. Bo Nix now has Jaylen Waddle as another explosive receiving option, while the Broncos defense gives Denver a chance to shorten the game and create favorable field position.
- Prediction: Broncos to win at 44¢ or better
Kansas City deserves to be favored, but the gap between these teams may be smaller than the names involved suggest. Denver's defensive front creates enough problems for the Chiefs' reshuffled offensive line to make the Broncos the more attractive contract at the current price.
Kalshi Promo Code ACTION: Trade $25, Get $25
The Kalshi promo code ACTION gives eligible new users $25 in bonus credit after completing $25 in qualifying trading volume.
| Kalshi Promo Code | Kalshi Offer | States Available |
|---|---|---|
| ACTION | Trade $25, Get $25! | AK, AL, AR, CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, FL, GA, HI, IA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, ME, MN, MO, MS, NC, ND, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NY, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, VT, WI, WV, WY |
Kalshi operates differently from a traditional sportsbook. Users buy and sell event contracts whose prices generally range from 1¢ to 99¢, with a winning contract settling at $1 and a losing contract settling at zero.
The price therefore reflects the market's current probability of an outcome. A Broncos contract trading around 44¢, for example, implies approximately a 44% chance of Denver winning.
Users who want to compare prediction market promos can also review the Kalshi vs. Polymarket breakdown before opening an account.
How to Claim the Kalshi Promo Code ACTION
- Register through the Kalshi promo code ACTION sign up link.
- Create your account and complete the required identity verification.
- Confirm that Kalshi is available in your location.
- Fund your account using an eligible payment method.
- Complete at least $25 in qualifying trading volume.
- Receive the $25 promotional credit after satisfying the offer requirements.
The bonus can be used beyond Broncos vs. Chiefs, giving new users access to other eligible NFL and event markets available on Kalshi.
Polymarket Terms and Conditions
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
