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2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds: McIlroy, Hovland and DeChambeau the Favorites at Bay Hill

2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds: McIlroy, Hovland and DeChambeau the Favorites at Bay Hill article feature image

Ross Kinnaird/Getty Images. Pictured: Viktor Hovland

The Florida Swing continues this week as the PGA TOUR heads to Bay Hill for the 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Although the field is a bit weaker compared to the what we saw the last two weeks, there is still plenty of starpower at the top of the board.

The Favorites

Oddsmakers have installed Rory McIlroy as the favorite at +900. Now going on almost 15 months since his last win, we’ve seen Rory at nearly double these odds recently. That said, McIlroy finished T6 at last week’s WGC-Workday Championship so there’s no real concerns about his form and he’s a former winner here, so it’s no shock that he’s at the top of the board.

Perhaps most encouraging about McIlroy’s performance at the WGC is that it came after he missed the cut at The Genesis two weeks ago. That was his first MC since the 2019 Open Championship, a streak that spanned 30 events.

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There’s a case to be made that Viktor Hovland is in the best form of anyone on TOUR at the moment. Hovland hasn’t won in 2021 (though he did win at Mayakoba in December), but he’s contended in nearly every event he’s played since then, including last week’s WGC-Workday where he finished T2 behind Morikawa. It was Hovland’s  second T2 and fourth top-six finish in his last four starts, so yeah he deserves to be the second-choice in this field.

Bryson DeChambeau was a bit of an unmade bed at The Concession. On the surface it looks like Bryson quietly finished T22 at 6-under, but he really took a bizarre route to get there. DeChambeau opened with a 77 then was 13 shots better in Round 2. It will be interesting to keep an eye on DeChambeau’s odds at THE PLAYERS and The Masters. If Bryson continues to play unremarkable golf, we could see him drift in these elite fields.

Defending champion Tyrrell Hatton (+1800) and Patrick Reed (+1800) round out the top-5.

Beyond the Top 5

International players have won each of the last five Arnold Palmer Invitationals, so it’s not surprising that eight of the top-10 players on the oddsboard hail from overseas. Included on that list are five players between +2500 and +2800:

  • Sungjae Im (+2500)
  • Paul Casey (+2500)
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick (+2500)
  • Louis Oosthuizen (+2500)
  • Hideki Matsuyama (+2800)

Matsuyama is probably the most interesting case of that quintet. A sluggish start to 2021 saw the 29-year-old’s odds plummet towards +6000 for the WGC-Workday. Matsuyama responded with a T15 at The Concession, though he didn’t strike the ball particularly well, so who knows which way Hideki goes at Bay Hill.

Billy Horschel caught some longshot love last week and nearly paid it off. Unfortunately, Morikawa was too good for the Florida Gator, so all those 100/1 tickets on “Bermuda Billy” are now nothing more than just story-fodder. Anyways, Horschel is down to +3000 for the API.

Jordan Spieth didn’t make the field for the WGC-Workday but bettors won’t forget that the three-time Major champion flashed some vintage form over the past few weeks. Spieth has finished T4-T3-T15 in his last three starts and joins Horschel at +3000.

Two more recent winners, Francesco Molinari and Jason Day, are next up at +3500 along with Jason Kokrak, who is coming off a top-10 finish at The Concession. Molinari seems to be trending in the right direction after a peculiar 2020, while Day has popped up here and there but has yet to put things completely together.

Tommy Fleetwood (+4500), Sam Burns (+4500) and Will Zalatoris (+5000) are the only other golfers at 50/1 or shorter at the time of writing.

Notable Longshots

While this field does have some starpower at the top, it is definitely more open compared to the last two events. That should allow for more shopping down the board and there are a few intriguing names as you scroll into the deep waters.

No matter the tournament, Corey Conners (+9000) will get some play when he’s listed at this kind of number. The Canadian is a ball-striking crackerjack who struggles near the flag, so if you catch him on a week where he and his putter are in sync, you could get paid off handsomely. Speaking of ball-striking kings who can’t putt, Byeong-hun An is +11000.

After a terrific start to the year that saw him capture a title at The American Express, Si Woo Kim has floated into the abyss a bit and now sits at +11000. Kim has had some success in Florida in the past, so don’t be surprised if you see his name get bandied about as a potential sleeper over the next few days.

Shane Lowry (+11000) didn’t really impress at the WGC-Workday but he was offered at basically the same price in that elite field as he is in this one, so he may be worth consideration if you can stand the ups and downs that come with a bet on the affable Irishman.

2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds

Odds via DraftKings and current as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Monday.

Player Odds
Rory McIlroy +900
Viktor Hovland +1200
Bryson DeChambeau +1300
Tyrrell Hatton +1800
Patrick Reed +1800
Paul Casey +2500
Matthew Fitzpatrick +2500
Sungjae Im +2500
Louis Oosthuizen +2500
Hideki Matsuyama +2800
Billy Horschel +3000
Jordan Spieth +3000
Jason Day +3500
Jason Kokrak +3500
Francesco Molinari +3500
Sam Burns +4500
Tommy Fleetwood +4500
Will Zalatoris +5000
Max Homa +5500
Marc Leishman +5500
Kevin Na +5500
Harris English +6000
Lanto Griffin +7000
Justin Rose +7000
Emiliano Grillo +7000
Kevin Kisner +7000
Cameron Davis +8000
Corey Conners +9000
Cameron Tringale +9000
Talor Gooch +9000
Rickie Fowler +9000
Keegan Bradley +10000
Adam Hadwin +10000
Charley Hoffman +10000
Zach Johnson +10000
Matt Jones +10000
Ian Poulter +10000
Brendon Todd +10000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +11000
Byeong-hun An +11000
Branden Grace +11000
Chris Kirk +11000
Russell Knox +11000
Luke List +11000
Shane Lowry +11000
Sebastian Munoz +11000
Matthew NeSmith +11000
Alex Noren +11000
Henrik Norlander +11000
Si Woo Kim +11000
Wyndham Clark +13500
Maverick McNealy +13500
Robert MacIntyre +15000
Victor Perez +15000
J.T. Poston +15000
Andrew Putnam +15000
Kyle Stanley +15000
Brendan Steele +15000
Cameron Champ +17500
Joel Dahmen +17500
Dylan Fritelli +17500
Lucas Glover +17500
Bo Hoag +17500
Tom Hoge +17500
Charles Howell III +17500
Patton Kizzire +17500
Keith Mitchell +17500
Cameron Percy +17500
Patrick Rodgers +17500
Rory Sabbatini +17500
Charl Schwartzel +17500
Henrik Stenson +17500
Sepp Straka +17500
Nick Taylor +17500
Steve Stricker +17500
Harold Varner III +17500
Matt Wallace +17500
Lee Westwood +17500
Bernd Wiesberger +17500
Danny Willett +17500
Aaron Wise +17500
Erik Van Rooyen +17500
Doug Ghim +20000
John Huh +20000
Chez Reavie +20000
C.T. Pan +25000
Austin Cook +25000
Will Gordon +25000
Mark Hubbard +25000
Martin Laird +25000
Adam Long +25000
Peter Malnati +25000
Graeme MacDowell +25000
Doc Redman +25000
Brian Stuard +25000
Richy Werenski +25000
Kyoung-hoon Lee +27500
Denny McCarthy +27500
Robby Shelton +27500
Brandt Snedeker +27500
Sung Kang +27500
Hudson Swafford +27500
Danny Lee +40000
Jason Dufner +50000
Tyler Duncan +50000
Brian Gay +50000
Kramer Hickok +50000
Jazz Janewattananond +50000
Anirban Lahiri +50000
Tyler McCumber +50000
Kristoffer Ventura +50000
Matt Every +60000
Padraig Harrington +60000
Jim Herman +60000
Matthias Schmid +60000
Robert Streb +60000
John Augenstein +60000
Camilo Villegas +60000

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