Perry’s Valero Texas Open Betting Picks & Preview: Cameron Davis, Sam Burns Highlight Value Plays
Sam Greenwood/Getty Images. Pictured: Cameron Davis.
We went into Sunday with a chance at both events. But neither Victor Perez in the WGC Match Play or Rafael Campos at Corales could quite get over the hump on Sunday.
The tour will hang out in the Lone Star State for one final Masters tuneup at the Valero Texas Open.
TPC San Antonio's Oaks Course has been good to us the past couple years, cashing Corey Conners the last time the event was held in 2019 along with Davis Riley last year when the Korn Ferry Tour came to town.
The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio tends to be one of the tougher tests on tour although the past two times, 17- and 20-under won the event. It’s a 7,435-yard par-72 where if we get some wind, the scoring tends to get much more difficult.
The course plays pretty long and tends to favor strong drivers.
The aforementioned Conners, Charley Hoffman, Adam Scott, Kevin Chappell, Brendan Steele and Jimmy Walker have all won here. It’s not the strongest group of champions because of where the tournament has been placed on the schedule in recent years, but they all would consider their tee ball one of the strongest parts of their game at the time of their victories.
In what's been a regular occurrence it seems in recent weeks, one of the top names pulled out early and threw the top of the board into flux. Dustin Johnson's withdrawal made Tony Finau the favorite at +1100.
He's followed by Jordan Spieth and Scottie Scheffler at +1400. It wouldn't be a surprise if Scheffler also pulled out after a grueling match play event last week and the Masters lying ahead.
The defending champ Conners comes in at +1800, along with Hideki Matsuyama. Abraham Ancer, Ryan Palmer and Cameron Tringale close out this range in the +2000s.
I'm not really looking at anyone here. Instead, just note the odds shift when a guy like Johnson withdraws. We've seen now multiple weeks where only the top names really see a noticeable drop. So if you're planning on getting someone under +4000, then see if you can jump in and get that value before the shift. But there hasn't been a need to back those triple-digit guys quickly in this spot because their odds don't dip.
I'll pepper this range with a handful of guys.
We'll start with one of our old favorites, Cameron Davis at +5000 on DraftKings. He hit a rough patch in Florida but seemed to bounce back at the Honda where despite finishing 33rd, he gained nearly eight strokes ball striking. I'll keep going back to him when the big names are absent as long as the driver and irons keep gaining ground at a decent rate.
Speaking of old friends, we'll dial up Sam Burns at +6000 on DraftKings. His window might have closed. He's been trending down for a month now, but his strength is the driver usually and he had a strong result the last time he played in Texas, finishing seventh in Houston. I'll take one more shot here.
Next up, we'll go to Aaron Wise at +7500 on FanDuel. He was the only one who really had a chance to knock off Matt Jones at the Honda, but he eventually collapsed and slid down the board a bit during that final round. For his career, the driver is his best club, gaining him about a stroke per round. His lone win came at another Texas stop at the Byron Nelson.
I'll close out here with current Texas resident and SMU alum Harry Higgs at +9500 on FanDuel. Higgs has gained on approach in every event he's played dating back to the Zozo in October. He's usually been a solid driver, but that club has gone awry for much of 2021. It did, however, return to field average at the Honda, so hopefully it's trending in the right direction as he heads to a more comfortable location for his game.
I'll start here with former Longhorn Doug Ghim at 100/1 on DK. We tried Ghim at the Honda where he missed the cut by a decent margin, but that was largely due to the putter, which cost him five shots. The ball striking was still in a decent place, so I'll go to him one more time.
The Valero Texas Open Card
- Cameron Davis +5000 (.66 units)
- Sam Burns +6000 (.55 units)
- Aaron Wise +7500 (.44 units)
- Harry Higgs +9000 (.37 units)
- Doug Ghim +10000 (.33 units)
Total Stake: 2.35 units