Updated 2022 American Express Odds, Betting Picks: Matthew Wolff & These Longshots Provide Value

Updated American Express Odds

The PGA TOUR returns to the mainland this week, with The American Express serving as year’s first California-based event.

Since this tournament was shortened to four rounds a decade ago, every winner has posted a total of at least 20-under 268, with 263 in play on half of those occasions.

While low scoring in the pro-am format is predictable, the winners themselves aren’t, as the past 10 years have proven this to be one of the most difficult to handicap on an annual basis.

During this time, we’ve witnessed everything from Rahm winning from the favorite position to Landry winning as a 200/1 longshot to three players winning who weren’t even individually listed in many books beforehand.

With that in mind, don’t be afraid to take some chances this week. I’ve listed plenty of players with big prices below, plus my favorite play on the board – a guy who appears ready to win once again.

Outright Winner

One player to win the tournament.

Matthew Wolff (+2800)

Anyone with even tangential knowledge of the subject understands that last year was a tough one for Wolff, both on and off the course, from his DQ at the Masters to an extended absence afterward.

What some might not realize, however, is that by year’s end, Wolff looked very much like the same player who’d previously been in the fast lane on the road to superstardom. He’s finished 17^th-or-better in all four starts so far this season, including a runner-up at the Shriners Childrens Open.

This week, at an event where birdies should be in abundance, the guy who ranks 11^th on the PGA TOUR in birdie average could go exceptionally low. I believe that next victory is coming soon for Wolff, a symbolic bridge of his return to relevance. In fact, I think he’ll not only win this year, but contend for a major again, climb back into the world’s top-10 and make the U.S. Presidents Cup roster.

With odds that aren’t too short this week, this is a high-ceiling play which should look like a great value when we review it in months to come.

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Other OADers

Potential selections for one-and-done options.

Justin Rose (+5500)/Will Zalatoris (+5500)

The opening odds Monday morning show a pair of big-time ball-strikers making their 2022 debuts as severely underpriced, though I’m guessing that by the time I finish typing this sentence, some early sharp money will move them to a more sensible number.

In any case, if you can get ‘em at something close to 55/1, I don’t mind it – just as I don’t mind either for what should be low-owned OAD plays with some obvious value.

Adam Hadwin (+6500)

While some of your fellow OADers are undoubtedly watching PGA TOUR events on a weekly basis and using the betting markets to help assess their choices, some of the less-involved poolers will simply examine recent history and make a decision based on prior results.

In those scenarios, Hadwin should be a very popular play, considering last year’s T-32 was preceded by four straight top-six finishes, including a pair of runners-up, one of which featured a third-round 59.

He’s obviously comfortable on these courses, but if you play him in OADs, just know that it could be a very chalky pick.

Luke List (+6500)

I’m on the record as saying that this will finally be the year when the 37-year-old breaks through for his first career PGA TOUR win. I don’t know that this is the perfect place for that prediction to come to fruition – he owns just one top-10 finish in seven starts and was T-21 last year – but List is a guy I’ll certainly be watching anytime he tees it up against a less-than-stellar field.

I don’t love him at 65/1 for betting purposes, but if you’re not burning one of the 5-10 top players in this one, he’s certainly a viable alternative for OADs.

Top-Five

One player to finish top-five.

Scottie Scheffler (+330 for top-five)

Plenty of players would be overjoyed at the prospect of a top-five finish this week, but those guys aren’t ranked 14^th in the world and without a victory yet. I’m guessing Scheffler might not say it publicly, but he’s gotta be growing tired of consolation prizes.

With three top-five finishes in his last four starts and an impressive 10 already in his young career – including a third-place finish at this one two years ago – it’s only a matter of time until Scheffler finally breaks through and claims a trophy. Until then, though, let’s keep backing him to pile up those potentially frustrating top-fives.

Top-10

One player to finish top-10.

Sahith Theegala (+1800 for top-10)

I very nearly swung for the fences and made this 250/1 longshot my favorite outright play this week. Instead, I’ll hedge just a bit and list Theegala for a top-10, but I obviously don’t mind a shot on him at that massive outright price, as well. An all-everything collegiate player at Pepperdine – he won the Haskins, Hogan and Nicklaus awards – the California native is on the verge of big things at the professional level and history suggests it could happen here in his home state. We won’t be able to get him at these current odds for much longer; I was worried that an opening 65 at last week’s Sony Open would hurt his number for this week, but three subsequent rounds of “only” 69 left him in a share of 48^th place and left his price untouched. I strongly encourage a play on him in some form until the books finally realize his impending potential.

Bet the American Express at Caesars and get a $5,000 risk-free first bet.

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Top-20

One player to finish top-20.

Brandon Hagy 

Last year’s FRL at this event, Hagy finished T-21 for the week. His past results suggest he’s more of a course horse than most others; essentially, he tends to play well at some of the same events each year. One of the game’s longest hitters and a guy with plenty of firepower, I like him when scores are low and birdies can be made in bunches.

There is a little caveat emptor at play here, though. Hagy was brutal in seven starts to begin this season, with just four made cuts and nothing inside the top-50. Here’s hoping he turned things around during the lengthy break.

Top-30

One player to finish top-30.

Trey Mullinax

If we’re holding our nose this week while playing Hagy, due to those latest results, then we’ll be doing the same with Mullinax, who hasn’t made a paycheck since the second week of October.

Then why should we like him here? Well, the price is right, first of all, but he’s also got a few other trends helping him out. He’s never missed the cut in three previous starts at this event and while he failed to reach the weekend at Waialae, his ball-striking numbers were all above field average, suggesting he’s primed for some better things.

Top-40

One player to finish top-40.

Kevin Tway 

Look, I’ll admit it: There’s a lot to sneer at in these prop plays. A runner-up finish in Houston last fall remains Tway’s only finish better than 30^th in his past 10 starts.

Again, though, against this field, I’m looking for some big prices to pop and Tway is a guy who could/should be on the rise after a couple of tough years.

DFS Free Bingo Square

A safe plug-and-play option for DFS.

Patrick Cantlay

With plenty of solid lower-priced options this week, there’s a decent chance you’ll want to spend up for one of the studs. Well, here’s the part where I attempt – perhaps unconvincingly – to recommend Cantlay over tourney fave Jon Rahm in DFS platforms.

Now, don’t get me wrong: This isn’t some “Fade Rahm” position. He’s obviously talented enough to beat up on fields superior to this one; in fact, he won this event in 2018 and was solo sixth the following year, which was the last time he played here. There are, however, two reasons why I won’t necessarily target him. The first is that I’m always wary of a player who fared well at a specific event, then took it off his schedule. Maybe Rahm just felt like he needed an extra week of rest in the past two years, maybe he didn’t want to suffer through the pro-am format. There have been other events in the past few seasons where Rahm might have been playing for reasons other than getting the competitive juices flowing and going after a victory; this might be one of those circumstances or it might not. But it leads to the second reasons why I’d rather not play Rahm here.

Since he first reached No. 1 in the world a year-and-a-half ago, he’s played 31 tournaments. He’s only missed three cuts during that span, but they’ve been three curious ones. Instead of majors or other big-time events, he’s MC’d at the Wells Fargo Championship, Fortinet Championship and the Estrella Damm Andalucia Masters. That’s not a huge sample size, but there’s at least some results to suggest that he might not be fully committed against inferior competition. That brings us to Cantlay, whose record during the same time period isn’t quite as sterling – of course, nobody’s is compared to Rahm – but he has shown a desire to grind out results when he’s not necessarily playing against his fellow elite-level stars.

Last year’s runner-up finish at this event is only one of those examples, but there’s certainly reason to value the reigning POY in these types of situations over the guy he beat last season. I’ve written many times already that I’m very bullish on Cantlay this year.

While I won’t be chasing his low price in the betting markets this week, if I’m spending up in DFS, I’ll clench my teeth and take him over Rahm.

DFS ‘Dog

A lower-priced option for DFS.

John Huh

We all have a blind spot and I’ll admit that among my many of ‘em, I’m terrible at predicting DFS ownership percentages. Luckily, our folks at Fantasy Labs take that task out of our hands each week. When those percentages are revealed, my guess is that Huh won’t have a big number next to his name. He often goes overlooked, as if his last name is the reply to any question about rostering him. He’s got some nice metrics this week, though, having made 6/7 cuts at this event, including a T-21 last year.

As for recent form, well, he MC’d last week, though it was largely due to an ice-cold putter; prior to that, he’d finished top-15 in two of his previous three starts. In what should be a week with some unforeseeable names on the leaderboard, I don’t mind taking some chances. With a guaranteed three rounds this week, you're assured of 54 holes anyway.

This one could pay off nicely.

First-Round Leader

One player to post the low score Thursday.

Rickie Fowler

Let’s start this section with a caveat: I’m writing this preview on Monday morning, more than 24 hours before this week’s tee times will be released, so I’m taking a bit of a guess here.

Last year, with no pro-am portion of this event due to COVID, it was played on two different courses – the Nicklaus Tournament Course and the Stadium Course. This year, it's back to the usual three-course rotation, with La Quinta involved, as well. Going back to 2020, the last time all three venues were used, La Quinta owned the lowest scoring average, followed by the Nicklaus, then the Stadium.  Without question, my suggestion is to wait on FRL plays until those tee times are out, then give a little more thought to those with the little (LQ) next to their names.

I’d like to have a little equity on Fowler this week; should he indeed be one of those starters on La Quinta or even the Nicklaus, I think FRL is a decent way to get involved. It’s no secret that Rickie hasn’t had his best stuff over the past few years, but this tends to be a good spot for him, even when he’s struggling elsewhere. Two years ago, his T-10 result ranked as his second-highest finish of the entire year; last year, a T-21 was better than each of his previous eight starts.

My outlook on Fowler for the entire year is what I would term “cautious optimism,” but this is a decent week to buy more than you’ll sell.

Matchup Man

One player who should beat comparable players.

Talor Gooch (+2000)

As I’ve so often written, my favorite matchup bets are those which give us two chances to win. What do I mean by that? I want a player who usually makes the cut, meaning H2Hs against trunk-slammers will pay out on Friday.

I also want a player who can climb the leaderboard on the weekend, winning these bets on Sunday, too. OK, fine – we’re all looking for that high-ceiling/high-floor on a regular basis, but it’s an especially valuable combination for these plays. In any case, Gooch has it.

He currently ranks sixth on the PGA TOUR in consecutive cuts made with 10, which is more than anyone else in this week’s field. He’s also finished 21^st-17^th-4^th at this event over the past three years. That’s enough to warrant a look in various type of bets, but I’ll especially target him in matchups this week.

Also Receiving Votes

Other players who should provide value.

Doug Ghim (+13000), Dylan Frittelli (+15000), Wyndham Clark (+15000), Taylor Pendrith (+18000), Nate Lashley (+30000)

The Big Fade

One top player to avoid at this tournament.

Sungjae Im (+1800)

I’m reversing course on Sungjae after he was one of my favorite plays last week, only to MC at the Sony Open. Not to be overreactive, but there are plenty of signals that when he misses a cut, it usually takes a while for him to find his game again. Over the past two years, there have been eight previous instances of Im failing to reach the weekend. In those circumstances, these are his results in his next start: 39^th-9^th-56^th-14^th-13^th-17^th-MC-35^th.

None of that is terrible, of course – and I’m not sure there are a ton of players with better records following an MC – but for a player who’s fourth on the board entering this week’s event, I’m not exactly optimistic about his chances of retaining value at this one. I’ll need to see a solid finish or two before I hop back on the Sungjae train.