With only a few events to go before the U.S. Open, the best in the world are at Muirfield Village for the last elevated tournament that features a cut.
Seventy-two players will be trying to place within the top 50 and ties over the opening two rounds.
Jack Nicklaus' unwavering belief that professional golf should test players throughout the year on certain tests has been admirable, and it should be interesting to see what he has in store when we consider the onslaught of single-digit victories we've seen here over the years.
Let's dive into my 2026 Memorial Tournament picks and PGA Tour best bets for this week's event.
2026 Memorial Tournament Outright Picks
Outright Pick: Rory McIlroy (+1500)
I found this week's betting board very tough for a handful of reasons.
- Most of the targets I wanted to back were priced down into territories that I found it hard to get into for the event. It doesn't mean they don't win at their reduced totals. However, it does present a 72-man field, with pricing that will already be condensed.
- None of the drift I would want to see is here as of Tuesday. Want to price me out of Ludvig Aberg at 16-1? That sucks, but let me at least get a 25-1 or 30-1 on Xander Schauffele. Can Patrick Cantlay be 40-1 or longer? Unfortunately, none of those factors has entered the mix. I just don't see a ton of openings to feel extremely bullish at this point.
- Does Scottie Scheffler make all of this a moot point and three-peat? If you can get 4-1 (or higher), that might be the cleanest answer, although I still don't personally like entering this range for my own wagers. Exchanges make it a little easier when you can treat golfers as if they're stock options, but I'm not day-trading prices and building extended portfolios.
My model believes that despite all the sizzling form from everyone right next to Scheffler and McIlroy on the board, those two men still carry the top win equity in my sheet.
The answer for Scheffler is an expected return. The response for McIlroy isn't quite as strong in the market if you ask around.
I had McIlroy somewhere in the middle of getting to Scottie or up to Aberg. The fair price for me on Rory is about 10.5-1 with Scottie at 3.75-1 and Aberg at 18-1.
That's a stronger projection than you'll see from most people in the space, but I do believe that the back-to-back Masters winner is being too negatively affected by Muirfield Village being the only course on tour where he has made 10-plus starts without a victory.
We saw that change quickly at the Masters, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him win as an under-the-radar commodity this week.
The one difference between Rory and those around him is that I believe his floor is the lowest in the mix. That might matter for other contests, but it won't come as much into play here as an outright. Upside will be king.
Outright Pick: Si Woo Kim (+2500)
I feel like a broken record talking about Ludvig Aberg and Si Woo Kim every tournament. Those two have been the best on tour this season without a victory, and I continue to chase the duo in the outright market during a lot of these events.
Both were under consideration for me. I might regret not getting the early 20-1 totals on Aberg before that number crashed.
It's a constant race on Monday to beat the onslaught of movement that enters early in the day. My hesitation on what to do with Rory played a big factor there.
The math on Kim in my sheet is very clean. Some of the "Difficult Scoring" totals might raise an eyebrow on his overall playability, but three top-fours in his last five and four top-15s here in his past five are legitimate finishes for someone playing the best golf of his career.
Kim's around-the-green profile is stout, the approach play looks good, and my favorite retort for any negative comments about him would be this recent uptick in putting.
If he can be better than half this field (as we've seen recently), the sky is the limit.
2026 Memorial Tournament Matchup Pick
Mac Meissner (-125) Over Pierceson Coody
Pierceson Coody is trending up entering this tournament, posting three top-24 finishes in his last four starts. That profile shows strength for a test that will assess a player's current skill set.
However, I thought there were a ton of red flags within the data points for Coody, so I wanted to try to oppose this weekend at Jack's masterpiece.
While my model sees how he finds success with his ranking of third in GIR and 18th in Proximity 200+ Yards, it's the wide misses he makes off the tee and his short-game woes that make me question his playability over four days of golf.
Coody didn't crack the top 50 for wide sprays and ranked dead last for Expected Around the Green, Overall Around the Green and Sand Save Expectation.
There's a blueprint for him to follow to achieve high-end success, but I think trying to counter that volatility in a matchup makes a ton of sense, especially if books want to boost his outlook given recent form.
It wouldn't be the first time the American has faceplanted when faced with a tougher test.
