Golf's oldest major returns to England's Golf Coast this week as Royal Birkdale hosts The Open Championship for the 11th time, more than any venue in the modern era except St Andrews.
The course is renowned as perhaps the fairest test on the Open rota, a reputation rooted in Frederick G. Hawtree's 1930s redesign, which routed fairways through natural valleys between the dunes to minimize blind shots and lucky bounces.
Players will encounter a noticeably different Birkdale than the one Jordan Spieth conquered in 2017. A sweeping renovation by Tom Mackenzie of Mackenzie & Ebert, the course's most significant in decades, was completed between autumn 2023 and spring 2025.
Every hole was touched, with rebuilt tees, restored rugged-style bunkers and refined green surrounds, while the 5th, 7th, 14th and 15th holes were transformed entirely.
The short par-4 5th is now a compelling risk-reward hole, a brand-new 241-yard par-3 15th adds variety, and the old 14th was converted into a short-game practice facility. The course's identity remains intact, but its strategic questions are sharper.
The course will play as a par 70 at 7,223 yards. With only two par 5s, four par 4s of 450-plus yards, and just 32-yard average fairway widths, Birkdale demands precision over power.
Roughly 110 revetted bunkers, many positioned squarely in preferred landing zones between 280 and 330 yards, punish even small errors, while wind off the Irish Sea remains the course's ultimate defense.
In 2017, Spieth won at 12 under and the field averaged nearly two over par per round, though Branden Grace's record 62 showed how vulnerable the course can be in calm conditions.
The early forecast calls for warm, dry weather, which could firm up the links and produce a winning score similar to or lower than 2017's.
Statistically, the championship is expected to hinge on approach play, historically the most predictive skill at Birkdale, along with driving accuracy, scrambling and bogey avoidance.
With added length pushing many approaches into the 150-to-200-yard range and greens that reward positioning over dramatic putting, the Claret Jug will likely go to the player who combines elite ball striking with disciplined course management and the imagination to adapt as conditions shift.
Open Championship Outright Picks
Open Championship Pick: Viktor Hovland (+3400)
Hovland's game is in as good a place as it's been in years. Two weeks ago at the Travelers, he went toe-to-toe with Scottie Scheffler and beat the world No. 1 in a playoff, the kind of win that validates everything he's been building toward.
He followed that up with a T13 at the Scottish Open, gaining nearly five strokes on approach, which happens to be the single most important stat at Royal Birkdale this week.
Hovland has been patiently waiting on his first major, knocking on the door for years, and it's hard to imagine a better time or place to break through than a region of the world where he's consistently played some of his best golf. Confidence, form, and course fit are all pointing in the same direction.
Open Championship Pick: Robert MacIntyre (+3600)
Bob Mac just knows how to win. Plain and simple. The Scot has been on a tear lately, finishing T10 at the Travelers before a T3 at the Scottish Open in front of his home fans, where he gained close to ten strokes on approach across the week. That's not a typo. Ten.
This week at Birkdale is going to be decided by iron play, and pair that with his links pedigree, his comfort in these conditions, and a proven ability to close, and this number is a no-brainer.
Open Championship Pick: Justin Rose (+4100)
Justin Rose only shows up for the big boy events nowadays, and honestly, can you fault him for it? Just look at the resume this season: a win at the Farmers, T3 at the Masters, T10 at the PGA Championship, T12 at the Memorial, T11 at the U.S. Open.
He's at the stage of his career where he's chasing majors and marquee titles, and he keeps putting himself in the mix at every single one of them. The one glaring hole on his Hall of Fame resume? An Open Championship.
He famously announced himself to the world as a 17-year-old amateur at Birkdale in 1998, and the writing is on the wall for a full-circle moment. At this number, with this form, it's an easy click.
Open Championship Pick: Russell Henley (+5400)
This was the first click of the week. Henley has quietly become one of the most reliable performers at this championship, with a 5th and a T10 in his last two Open starts. It's clear he loves it over here and that links golf caters perfectly to his game. And Birkdale might be the best fit of all.
You need to keep it in the fairway? Check. Henley is one of the most accurate drivers in the world. You need to be dialed on approach? Check.
He’s gained on approach four straight weeks, including his win at Colonial where he gained eight. For a player who has proven he can win at the highest level, this is a prime spot, and there is so much win equity baked into this price.
Open Championship Pick: Keita Nakajima (+44000, Longshot Special)
One of the most reliable trends at the Open Championship is form the week prior in Scotland, and Nakajima just finished T3 at the Scottish Open. Talk about a player who knows how to paint fairways, which is exactly the skill set Birkdale demands off the tee.
The form line is trending hard too: T3, T46, T20, T28 in recent starts. There should be no world where this number is this long. Didn't even have to think when I saw it, pounced heavy.
At 440/1, even a whiff of weekend contention makes this one of the best value plays on the board.
