As someone who builds models and gives my opinion on sports betting and fantasy sports, I try to be as transparent as possible. I've been doing this full-time for over 15 years and have a documented history of success at both. However, this has been my worst year of golf betting that I have ever had.
I've always liked to bet on golf with a mix of modeling and gut feeling. It has always worked in the past (I've been profitable betting outrights in each of the last five years). However, a brutal first half of the year motivated me to change the way I look at golf betting. As noted in my last two event previews, I built simulations into my model.
It's going to take a large sample to know how accurate the simulations are, but the first two weeks were encouraging. We had a few golfers in the mix at the John Deere Classic, and we cashed two of our seven bets at the Genesis Scottish Open. I'm hoping that's a sign of things to come the rest of the year.
For The Open Championship, I upped the simulations to 20,000 runs rather than 5,000 runs. First, we'll dive into the course preview, and then we'll get to the picks.
Let's take a look at The Open Championship picks and PGA Tour predictions for this week's major tournament at Royal Birkdale GC.
The Open Championship Preview
This will be the 11th Open Championship hosted at Royal Birkdale Golf Club. Many view this as the fairest test of links golf on the Open rota.
There are fewer blind shots, and you aren’t as much at the mercy of the golf luck gods as you are at some other courses. Good shots tend to be rewarded here, and bad shots tend to be punished.
Golfers will obviously still need some breaks to find themselves in contention on Sunday, but this course should provide us the most deserving winner after 72 holes.
Royal Birkdale is a Par 70 that measures 7,223 yards. The length may not seem daunting overall, but there are two Par 3s over 200 yards, three Par 4s over 500 yards, and two Par 5s over 550 yards.
Early reports on the ground suggest that the fairways are extremely firm, and with no rain in the forecast, we should see drives roll out quite a bit (especially if it’s sunny all week). I was already emphasizing accuracy over distance before this news, so that’s even more the case now.
The course has undergone significant renovations since we last saw it in 2017, when Jordan Spieth won. The course has new tee boxes, rebuilt bunkers, elevated greens, and two redesigned holes (14 and 15). The course is now 70 yards longer in total. While golfers will hit plenty of drivers this week, staying out of trouble is more important than having a slight distance advantage. Many of the fairways are surrounded by towering dunes, which really punishes severe misses off the tee.
As is the case with most links courses, avoiding the fairway pot bunkers will be critical off the tee. These are some of the deepest pot bunkers on the Open rota, and they essentially serve as a half or full shot penalty.
Golfers won’t be reaching the green on their approach shots from the fairway pot bunkers. The greens here are fairly small (6,000 square feet) and were tough to hit in regulation in 2017. Scrambling was also very difficult and requires creativity and the ability to hit different types of shots.
The difficulty of the course hinges on the weather. It’s early in the week, but the current forecast looks more like Myrtle Beach than the United Kingdom. There’s not expected to be more than 10 MPH wind (including gusts) on any of the four days of the tournament.
It’s also expected to be warm and fairly sunny, so if that forecast holds, this is not going to be a typical links event. The course should play a little easier, and I think it opens the door for all types of golfers to contend.
The Open Championship Predictions, Picks
Here are the results from my 20,000 simulations. The graph below shows my probabilities in the first three columns, the market odds in the next three columns, and the betting value in the last three columns.
Collin Morikawa to Win (+3300, DraftKings)
I'll never forget the year Morikawa won The Open Championship.
Much like this week, the weather was essentially perfect. And the week before the event, he was worried about his approach play on the tough turf.
Royal Birkdale is going to be extremely firm this week, which means accuracy is going to matter more than distance off the tee.
When you combine Morikawa's accuracy with his elite iron play, it's hard not to like his chances this week. Prior to the back injury at The Players Championship, he was playing some of the best golf of his career.
He seems to be rounding back into form, as he finished third in his last start (Travelers Championship) by gaining over 10 strokes ball striking that week.
Tyrrell Hatton to Win (+3800, DraftKings)
As you can see from the graphic above, my model has Hatton as the best outright value on the board (at his current odds).
He's coming off a T17 finish at the Genesis Scottish Open despite making a triple bogey on the first hole. Before that, he finished T7 at the U.S. Open and won the LIV event in Spain.
Over the last six years, nobody in this field has a better average finish on links courses than Hatton. On top of that, he's won the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship three times — a feat no other golfer has ever accomplished.
I love the form, I love the course fit, and I love the price on Hatton this week.
Patrick Reed to Win (+6300, DraftKings) and Top 10 (+550, FanDuel)
You never want to count Reed out at major championships.
He won the Masters in 2018 and has a total of eight top 10 finishes at majors in his career, while also finishing in the top 12 at two of the three majors this year.
He also picked up two wins on the DP World Tour earlier this year, so we know the win equity is there and he is also coming off a strong T13 finish at the Genesis Scottish Open.
I'm sprinkling on the outright and betting the top 10.
Alex Fitzpatrick Top 10 (+675, bet365) and Top 20 (+290, bet365)
If I could only recommend one bet this week, it would be Fitzpatrick to finish in the top 10 and/or top 20.
He's coming off a missed cut last week at the Genesis Scottish Open, but I'm not concerned in the slightest.
For whatever reason, he has never faired well at that course (0-for-3 in cuts made), but he's had one of the best overall years of any professional golfer.
He won on the DP World Tour, he won the team event with his brother, and he's posted numerous top 10 and top 20 finishes on the PGA TOUR.
In his lone appearances at The Open Championship, he finished T17.
Si-Woo Kim Top 10 (+480, bet365)
Kim doesn't have an elite track record on links courses, but he's having his most consistent season on the PGA Tour and is coming off a strong top 10 finish at the Genesis Scottish Open.
It's hard to find a better golfer more equipped for what Royal Birkdale is going to ask this week. Kim is one of the most accurate drivers of the ball in the world; he's an elite iron player, and he's an excellent scrambler.
The putter is a wildcard, but he's actually improved on the greens over the last three months.
Russell Henley Top 20 (+220, FanDuel)
It has taken a long time for Henley to figure out links courses.
Despite his game fitting nicely on paper, he struggled mightily at The Open Championship up until a couple of years ago.
He's posted back-to-back top 20s at the event, so I'm hoping he can continue that success this week. Once again, accuracy off the tee, good iron play, and a tidy short game are expected to go a long way this week at Royal Birkdale.
Henley has contended in a lot of big events over the last two years, so a top 20 finish shouldn't be asking too much at +220.
Patrick Cantlay Top 20 (+280, bet365)
The final bet of the week is Cantlay to finish in the top 20.
He's been one of the most frustrating golfers to bet on this year, because every time it looks like he has turned a corner and is going to contend, he ends up missing the cut in his next event.
However, his ball striking continues to be excellent and his long-term skill set suggests that his short game should improve sooner rather than later.
I'm trusting the model on this one, as he projects as one of the best bets (relative to current odds) on the entire board.
Let's have a week!
