After an eventful close to the U.S. Open, we head to TPC River Highlands in Cromwell, CT, for the Travelers Championship.
While the world's best compete for the third major championship of the season, there are more ways to bet on the tournament than just who will emerge victorious on Sunday.
For more instant gratification, we turn to the first-round leader market to find value on who will sit atop the leaderboard when play comes to an end on Thursday.
Here are my favorite Travelers Championship first-round leader picks and PGA Tour predictions for Thursday's opening round.
Travelers Championship First-Round Leader Picks, Predictions
First-Round Leader Pick: Matt Fitzpatrick (+2900, DraftKings)
With TPC River Highlands measuring under 6,900 yards, this event turns into a mid-iron and putting contest. Last season, 25.6% of approach shots came from the 150-175-yard range, which was six percentage points higher than any other 25-yard grouping.
This setup makes Matt Fitzpatrick a strong option this week. One of the tournament favorites, Fitzpatrick enters in outstanding form with three wins and two runner-up finishes over his past 10 tournaments.
Fitzpatrick is one of the best iron players in the world, gaining true strokes on approach in each of his past 10 tournaments. Entering this week, he ranks in the 98th percentile in strokes gained: approach and in the 96th percentile in strokes gained: approach from 150-200 yards.
First-Round Leader Pick: Ludvig Aberg (+2500, FanDuel)
Another golfer worth targeting in Thursday’s opening round is Ludvig Aberg. Like Fitzpatrick, Aberg fits this course well.
Entering this week, he ranks in the 96th percentile on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approach and in the 94th percentile in strokes gained: approach from 150-200 yards. He is also a strong starter and enters this tournament in good form.
Aberg ranks above the PGA Tour average in first-round scoring and has posted six top-eight finishes over his past 10 tournaments.
As noted, the ease of hitting greens turns this week into a putting contest. Last year, each of the top eight finishers ranked inside the top 27 in the field in strokes gained: putting.
No other strokes-gained category showed a similar trend.
Aberg has proven capable on the greens, ranking in the 90th percentile on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: putting. He performs well across all key putting ranges (2-5 feet, 5-30 feet and 30-plus feet), ranking in the top quarter of the Tour in each.
