Justin Thomas’ 2018 Major Odds Are Still Way Off

Justin Thomas’ 2018 Major Odds Are Still Way Off article feature image
Credit:

Justin Thomas via Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

The Honda Classic came down to the wire, but the best player in the field, Justin Thomas, took down the title in a playoff over Luke List.

Thomas opened the week at +1100 behind Rickie Fowler and Rory McIlroy, and in hindsight, he was undervalued.

Thomas now has seven wins in his last 31 tournaments. He’s the reigning FedEx Cup champion and the winner of the most recent major.

At this point, any double-digit odds should probably be strongly considered. His ability to close out tournaments is on par with Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth, but right now, we’re still getting double the odds.

Per Bovada, Thomas is +1600 at the Masters, +1800 at the U.S. Open, +2000 at the Open Championship and +1600 at the PGA Championship. However, Johnson and Speith are no worse than +1000 at any major and are both in the +700 range at Augusta.

Given that Thomas has won at a 22.6% clip over the last 16 months (and is atop the FedEx Cup standings), his major odds are off when compared to the other top players in the world.

Thomas may be known as Jordan Spieth’s friend, but he’s past Spieth in the world rankings now, and it probably won’t be long before he’s ahead of his friend on betting odds as well.

Other Betting Notes

I think we can also take something away from how Tommy Fleetwood and Alex Noren performed this week. Fleetwood seemed to be at his best when the conditions were most difficult on Thursday and Friday. He looked very comfortable in a situation in which he was forced to grind out pars. I added him at the U.S. Open at +6600 a few weeks back and still think his current number of +4000 is worth a look. He finished fourth last year in that major and never really backed up in the tournament; Brooks Koepka just took that one from the field. Fleetwood has the ball-striking ability to win a major.

Noren has come close twice now in just a few weeks, losing to Jason Day in a playoff at Torrey Pines and finishing one shot out of a playoff this week. He’s still available at some big numbers for all the majors: +5000 at the Open Championship, +6600 at the Masters and U.S. Open and +7500 at the PGA Championship.

Most of Noren’s major success has come at the Open Championship, where he’s notched a couple of top 10s. I’ve added him for everything but the Masters, where he’s only played once and missed the cut. He’s shown that he can compete on tough courses and is worth a look at those prices.


Top Photo: Justin Thomas

Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports