Most of the top players in the world will be taking this week off in preparation for the last major of the year in two weeks, but it doesn't mean we get the week off on the betting slate!
Let's dive into my John Deere Classic picks and PGA Tour best bets for this week's event.
John Deere Classic Outright Picks
Pierceson Coody 55/1
You are going to notice a trend with all four names I have here this week. The safety marks will have red flags. The ceiling outputs are where I am throwing a dart.
It is important to remember that this field is not as strong as some events. Scottie Scheffler not being present is the obvious answer, but we are also missing the majority of the high-end contenders and are being led by the co-favorites in my model, Jackson Koivun and Ben Griffin. No slight to either of them, but a kid making his PGA Tour debut being the man to beat does say something about the inconsistency of this field. Maybe that is why one of those two will inevitably win, but I decided to throw my darts at this board and hope for the best.
Coody's form is probably not as bad as public perception makes it out to be. A capped ceiling of production, sure. But six top-40 finishes over his last eight contests should not be something to sneeze at when we are trying to find hidden win equity from a field that hasn't done a ton of winning on tour.
The American placed 12th in my Weighted Scoring model and brings an elite combination of Easy GIR Approach and Bentgrass Putting. If he can put those two features together, the upside is there for him to break through on tour.
Mac Meissner 60/1
This won't be the first time you have seen Mac Meissner mentioned in one of my articles. I feel as if he is the secondary version of what you get from me weekly when I talk about Alex Smalley, Si Woo Kim, etc.
Meissner is a notable ball-striker who landed as a top 10 projected win equity candidate for me on the slate because of that profile. A third-place rank for Weighted Strokes Gained Total led the way for someone who also carried a fourth-place mark for Weighted Scoring.
The recent returns have left something to be desired, which is why this simulated output in my model is as boom-or-bust as it is. But, like Coody before him, that is a projected risk we can take on when winning the event is the ultimate goal.
Blades Brown 66/1
For all the talk about Jackson Koivun making his PGA Tour professional debut, 19-year-old Blades Brown has gone under the radar.
Brown has been really good in action so far this season. I worry a little bit about the limited data and what that means for any of these markets, but back-to-back top-15 finishes, including at a similar birdie test when he took on the CJ Cup six weeks ago, should give some confidence that his fit for TPC Deere Run is higher than the market perceives it to be early in the week.
Brown's iron play graded fifth in this field over the small sample size of data that I do have for him, plus the birdie-making talent is very close to the top of the field.
Zachary Bauchou 105/1
Zach Bauchou has some of the most volatile splits of any golfer in this field. The tough course metrics are concerning. We see the birdie-or-better potential slip through the floor. Fortunately, this is not a tough tournament, and the pure upside in the data for him on straightforward contests might give us an option that will go widely ignored because of the recent missed cut on his resume.
Bauchou ranked first in my model for the difference in scoring between hard and easy production. That metric carried over into three sectors of the game: off the tee, approach, and putting. It also revealed a hidden upside that many might miss when purely diving into his overall birdie-or-better percentage.
None of that suggests he will capitalize on that potential, although it is a good sign for why the movement up is occurring. I don't mind being on my own island here.
John Deere Classic Matchup Pick
Blades Brown +100 over Aldrich Potgeiter
I understand some of the intrigue around Aldrich Potgeiter. TPC Deere Run is a total driving test that can reward distance off the tee. Still, I do think there has been an overcorrection in the market on him after a really nice two months of golf. All of that is great if you have faith in Potgeiter and this newfound consistency, but I do think there are a few red flags in the John Deere profile when we dive into the numbers. It isn't as extreme as it may sound, given that he is 45th overall and 17th for safety in my model, but the data isn't perfect.
For starters, some of the comp course returns are troubling. His top-10 at TPC Toronto (RBC Canadian Open) will give you a sense of the TPC similarities we always receive. However, that venue heavily rewarded long-iron play and allowed his distance to fully shine through.
Potgeiter is someone who sees his proximity marks shrink compared to the field when he gets closer to the hole. That is a weird explanation for someone who bludgeons drives and often finds himself using length to his advantage, but birdie-fest tests that aren't as driver-heavy can put him in a spot where his biggest strength gets negated. There is probably a reason some of these TPC contests have been hit-and-miss for him in the past.
Maybe I am wrong, but I still view Potgeiter as a rather one-dimensional prospect. The putting and short game are all over the map. The short iron stuff fails to impress the naked eye. His scrambling is bottom-of-the-barrel by PGA Tour standards. You could convince me that these greens are easy enough for him to hit that his top-notch driving could reach a massive ceiling, but I don't know how safe he actually is on the surface of this answer because of the hit-and-miss data profile.
His first two rounds at this course last year will show tournament-winning upside. I don't want that to be lost in translation, but the floor for head-to-head bets does matter for the overall appeal of a wager. Blades Brown is someone my model viewed as one of the more mispriced players on the board, so I am hoping we have a few potential outs for this bet. Either Potgeiter struggles. Or Brown's upside shines even higher. I will take either route here. I don't mind being wrong on Potgeiter and getting a win from being correct on Brown.
