This week's Travelers Championship comes on the heels of an eventful U.S. Open.
Taking place at TPC River Highlands in Cromwell, CT, the Travelers is a limited field of play with only 72 players. Last year, Keegan Bradley came away with the win, his second in his past three appearances.
Let's dive into our Travelers Championship picks and PGA Tour best bets for this week.
Top-20 Pick: Alex Fitzpatrick (+152)
By Kyle Murray:
There are a few guys that I think are pretty significant values in the top-20 market.
I would say that there's maybe five to ten guys who are falling behind on an already short field.
Perhaps this comes back to bite me, but Brian Campbell and Johnny Vegas are guys that don’t grade out very well in my model this week.
They have very long outright numbers, which opens up a soft spot in my opinion.
And Alex Fitzpatrick slides in there.
When I ran the model this week, Fitzpatrick was jumping off the page. Obviously, I had to do some calibrating and fine-tuning just based on the small sample. But when initially running it off of the 26 rounds, I believe that I had for him, he was inside the top 10.
I think he was actually like seventh or eighth in my model this week. Obviously, that's a little bit hot based on the small sample.
So after reworking things, he settled in at 13th in my model this week. And I feel like that still might be a tad hot, but there are a lot of things that point towards some solid play for him.
Obviously, his approach play has been very good since we've seen him on the PGA Tour pretty consistently over the last five or six events.
The one thing that he has struggled with is his short game. But it's worth noting that from a ceiling perspective, this is a very strong field.
And for him to be in the top seven of a ceiling metric that I have for him this week, that goes to show that this top twenty number, you don't necessarily need a massive ceiling week.
We've seen him get it done already in signature events. And I think that right around two to one.
He just has some solid value there. And I do think that there's a chance that he sort of falls back to a more normal baseline on some of these numbers. But the approach play has been really carrying him, especially throughout the model process.
So he's someone that I'm happy to take a chance on here, right around two-to-one, for a top 20.
Top-10 Pick: Eric Cole (+500)
By: Derek Farnsworth
Cole is one of the few golfers in this week's field who didn't qualify for the U.S. Open last week.
Unlike everyone else who had to grind out 36 or 72 holes at Shinnecock, he comes into the week well-rested. He's one of the streakiest golfers on Tour, and has been in tremendous form over the last few months.
He's finished in the top 10 in four of his last six starts. He's always been a good iron player and an elite putter, but the off-the-tee game is finally starting to come around.
If he can find the short grass off the tee this week, I see no reason why he can't post another top 10 finish.
Outright Winner Pick: Ludvig Aberg (+2000)
By: Spencer Aguiar
For me, I don’t have a top-20 pick, but I have three outright picks lined up.
Kim, Ludvig Aberg, and Tommy Fleetwood.
However, out of the three, I also think Aberg is more enticing for a top-10 pick as well.
Anything that you could find in the twenties is still going to play for him.
Aberg is an intriguing pick because he's top-10 in strokes gained on approach in birdies or better gains.
And he's one of eight players who check the box across strokes gained anywhere in that 125-yard to 175-yard window, which, given this course history, is perfect for him.
On the flip side, his short game is what can often unravel for him, which is why he’s going to have to hit his greens.
So, if you shop around and find something that’s 22-to-1, I’d absolutely take a flier on it.
It’s a 72-man slate and the bottom half of this slate is really weak, which is why there’s an opportunity here.
Outright Winner Pick: Justin Rose (+4200)
By: Jake Zach
Justin Rose’s entire career tells the same story: when the stage gets bigger, he gets better. Major championships, elevated events, strong fields, Rose has a remarkable knack for showing up precisely for bigger events.
At a course that rewards intelligence, precision, and experience over raw power, his veteran savvy becomes a genuine weapon.
He knows how to manage a tournament, protect a lead, and close. If he’s anywhere near the leaderboard heading into the weekend, I think he’ll have a great chance to win here.
