2024 National Lacrosse League Playoff Picks: NLL Quarterfinals Best Bets

The 2024 National Lacrosse League playoffs are here, with three games on Saturday and another on Sunday. I have picks for all three Saturday games, including a side, total and three player props.

Let’s take a look at my best bets for the NLL Quarterfinals. 

No. 1 Toronto Rock vs. No. 8 Rochester Knighthawks

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

The top-seeded Toronto Rock hosts the Rochester Knighthawks, who had less than a 4% chance of making the playoffs prior to last weekend. Toronto beat Rochester 13-6 just two weeks ago and I expect another big win for the Rock on Saturday.

Rochester snuck into the playoffs thanks to an MVP-like effort by Connor Fields, but their defense has played poorly regardless of who has been in net. Rylan Hartley was the team’s starter entering the season before going on injured reserve for months. While he’s played well in his return as the starter in the past two games, the defense in front of him still gives up far too many quality chances.

Furthermore, Rochester’s usually high-powered offense is still not producing at the rate they were accustomed to in the first half of the season and could fail to reach double-digits again against Toronto’s top-ranked defense. Toronto possesses the best opposing shooting percentage allowed in the NLL at 15.3% according to LaxMetrics. The Rock offense has also been active in pushing transition and Rochester has been prone to allowing breakaway goals in recent weeks.

Bet the NLL Cup favorites to cover the 2.5-point spread at -125 on BetMGM.

Pick: Toronto Rock -2.5

No. 4 Buffalo Bandits vs. No. 5 Georgia Swarm

Odds via bet365

The Buffalo Bandits host the Georgia Swarm in what could be the most competitive game of the season. Buffalo is once again a 1.5-point favorite despite losing to Georgia outright earlier in the season. Rather than bet a side or total, I’m targeting two player props in this Saturday showdown.

Buffalo has righted the ship, winning their final four games of the season. Their defense has played much better than it did to start the season, but all four of those wins came against non-playoff teams so I’m not sure if we can declare the defending champions full back just yet. Meanwhile, Georgia has quietly entered the playoffs tied for the second-lowest opposing shooting percentage allowed according to LaxMetrics. I wouldn’t fault anyone betting Georgia to defeat Buffalo for the second-straight time this season, but I think there is a better way to fade the Bandits.

Buffalo’s two best players are Josh Byrne and Dhane Smith, who both finished the regular season leading the league in points with 135 and 134 respectively. Yet, I think their props are overinflated heading into this playoff matchup.

We’ll start with Byrne’s points prop of 7.5. Byrne is a goal-scoring machine, but he only went over this mark in six of 18 games this season. Furthermore, Georgia held him to a season-low four points in their matchup earlier this season. It may sound crazy, but there is a ton of value in betting Byrne to stay under 7.5 points at -120 on bet365.

Now, let’s take a look at Dhane Smith’s assists prop of 5.5 assists. While Smith recorded seven assists in his last meeting with Georgia, the Swarm held him to no goals in a 9-8 Georgia win. While Smith has still been a prolific passer, he’s been much more involved as a goal-scorer during Buffalo’s recent stretch. Furthermore, Georgia’s defense has allowed a single player to tally six or more assists in only five of 18 games this season 

Despite setting the regular season-record for assists, bet365 has posted great odds to bet Smith to stay under this mark on Saturday night. Smith has stayed under this 5.5 assists in half of his games this season, so there is a ton of value at its current price of +190. Bet a half unit on Dhane Smith to stay under 5.5 assists.

Picks: Josh Byrne Under 7.5 Points, Dhane Smith Under 5.5 Assists (0.5 unit)

No. 2 San Diego Seals vs. No. 7 Panther City Lacrosse Club

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

To cap off the Saturday games, second-seeded San Diego hosts the Panther City Lacrosse club. The Seals are 2.5-point favorites after winning both regular season matchups against Panther City. Despite the second-best record in the NLL, San Diego has not covered as a favorite often this season—including their first game against Panther City—and is 3-6 against the spread in their last nine games as a favorite. While I think there’s a good chance that they cover on Saturday, I’d rather bet San Diego’s playoff futures and think there are better ways to fade Panther City.

A big absence for the team from Fort Worth, Texas is 2023 NLL Rookie of the year and star forward Jonathan Donville, who was moved to the injured reserve with an upper body injury sustained in their regular season finale. That’s a big loss for purple prowlers and I expect it to impact not just Panther City’s chances at winning, but the total and one of his teammate’s points prop.

The total is as high as 23 and I’d expect a low-scoring affair more akin to the 10-9 game between these teams than the most recent 14-10 outing. San Diego and Panther City’s defenses both rank in the top-five in opposing shooting percentage allowed according to LaxMetrics and Chris Origlieri and Nick Damude also rank in the top-five of starting goalies in save percentage. In San Diego’s 18 games this season, 11 have stayed under this total and three more have landed right on 23 total goals. Panther City has also played in 11 games that have stayed under 23 and two more have seen 23 goals exactly.

Furthermore, Panther City has activated defender Pat Foley in Donville’s absence. Foley has been a scratch a few times this season, but has actually been one of Panther City’s better defenders during their existence and has been a casualty of a deep position for the team. Ultimately, I expect both San Diego and Panther City’s defenses to lead the charge on Saturday and recommend betting this game to stay under 23 goals at -130 on Caesars.

I’m also targeting Panther City forward Will Malcolm’s points prop of 5.5. The elder Malcolm brother has stayed under this mark in 11 of 18 games (61%) this season. While he had five points in their first meeting and six in their most recent, he’ll receive added attention with Donville out of the lineup. San Diego held Donville to his lowest two point totals in their previous meetings and with him absent on Saturday, you can expect they’ll have their sights on limiting Panther City’s points leader. 

Bet Will Malcolm to stay under 5.5 points at +110 on bet365.

Picks: Under 23, Will Malcom Under 5.5 Points