National Lacrosse League Betting Picks: NLL Week 10 Best Bets for Saturday

Week 10 in the National Lacrosse League continues with four more games on Saturday night and I have four bets for two of those contests. Let’s take a look at the side, total and two player props I’m betting.

If you’re an avid bettor who’s new to lacrosse or a lacrosse fan who’s new to betting, check out my guide on how to bet on lacrosse for some tips to use when placing a lacrosse bet.

Buffalo Bandits vs. Rochester Knighthawks

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

The Buffalo Bandits host their crosstown rivals in Rochester as 2.5-point favorites following a statement win against Toronto last week. Meanwhile, the Knighthawks are looking to snap a three-game losing streak that included a 15-13 loss to Buffalo in January.

The Bandits knocked off the previously undefeated Rock last week in a 16-14 shootout and their offense has been consistently finishing the high-quality chances that they were leaving on the table earlier in the season. Buffalo currently ranks third in offensive rating and their reward for last week’s performance is facing a Rochester defense with the worst defensive shooting percentage in the league, allowing goals on 20% of opposing shots according to LaxMetrics.

Yet, I have some concerns still with this Bandits defense that can’t manage to string together complete games. They currently rank ninth in defensive shooting percentage and have been far too inconsistent for me to trust them to beat Rochester by three or more goals. Rather than bet Buffalo -2.5, I’d rather play the total once again.

We cashed over 23.5 in the last meeting between these two teams and we’re going back to the well for this game.

While there are concerns about Rochester’s offense from an efficiency stand point, they’re still extremely opportunistic in earning extra possessions through loose balls and have averaged 13 goals per game this season—tied for first in the NLL. They should be able to do their part to push this total over against a Buffalo defense allowing goals on 19.2% of opposing shots.

Three of the last four games between these teams have surpassed 23.5 goals, with an average of 26.5 goals scored in those four meetings. Bet this game to go over 23.5 (-115 on DraftKings or ESPN Bet) once again.

I’m also targeting a Buffalo forward Josh Byrne’s points prop of 6.5. Byrne has scored at least eight points in his last three games against Rochester and has surpassed 6.5 points in five of seven games this season. When including last season, Byrne has gone over 6.5 points in 15 of 25 games that he didn’t leave with an injury.

Bet Josh Byrne to record at least seven points again (-135 on bet365) on Saturday night.

Picks: Over 23.5, Josh Byrne Over 6.5 Points

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Calgary Roughnecks vs. Toronto Rock

Odds via ESPN Bet

The Calgary Roughnecks let us down last night with a 11-10 loss to New York Riptide, but fortunately we get to fade them tonight in a spot I was already targeting prior to last night’s game. Calgary is a 1.5-point home underdog against Toronto, who is coming off their first loss of the season.

The Roughnecks have been statistically one of the more efficient offenses and defenses, ranking second in both offensive rating and shots defended entering this weekend. Yet, the cracks are starting to show against quality opponents. They played sloppy against New York last night and their offense will have an even tougher test against a Toronto defense that ranks fifth in defensive shooting percentage at 16.6% according to LaxMetrics.

The Roughnecks are better than their 2-4 record indicates and will bounce back, but don’t expect them to do so against a Rock team that I still power rate as the best in the NLL. This is a great bounce back spot for Toronto, not Calgary.

Despite last week’s loss, Toronto’s offense ranks fourth in offensive rating and got a boost when 2023 NLL MVP finalist Tom Schreiber returned from injury last week. Calgary’s defense is very good, but the Schreiber-led offense should be able to exploit this matchup enough to build and sustain a multi-goal lead. Factor in the rest advantage Toronto has over Calgary and this is a great opportunity to back the Rock.

Bet Rock -1.5 at -110 on ESPN Bet.

I’m also looking to fade Roughnecks star forward Jesse King by betting him to stay under 6.5 points. King is the focal point of this Calgary offense and has seven or more points in four of six games this season. Yet, he’s played some relatively weak defenses so far and Toronto will by far be the toughest defense he’s faced.

Furthermore, when considering games last season, King has stayed under 6.5 points in 18 of his last 28 games, making -130 on bet365 a great price to bet him to stay under this mark again on Saturday, especially when factoring in the short rest.

Picks: Toronto Rock -1.5, Jesse King Under 6.5 Points