National Lacrosse League Betting Picks: NLL Week 12 Best Bets

The National Lacrosse League season is now past the halfway point and the playoff race is starting to heat up. This weekend only features five games, but I still have three bets for as many games.

Let’s break down my NLL best bets for Week 12.

If you’re an avid bettor who’s new to lacrosse or a lacrosse fan who’s new to betting, check out my guide on how to bet on lacrosse for some tips to use when placing a lacrosse bet.

Halifax Thunderbirds vs. Buffalo Bandits

Odds via Bet Rivers

Halifax hosts the Buffalo Bandits on Friday night with Thunderbirds riding a three-game win streak. Both teams appear to be getting hot at the right time and I don’t see much value on either side of the spread. Instead, I’m targeting the total of 24.5.

Despite some offensive efficiency issues, Halifax boasts the best goals per game average with 13.1. Right behind them is Buffalo, who has scored an average of 13.0 goals per game this season and has the league’s second-best offensive rating. Both offenses are getting hot at the right time and I expect this recent success to continue against two inconsistent defenses.

Buffalo’s defense has really struggled this season, ranking bottom five in shots defended with an opposing shooting percentage of 18.1% according to LaxMetrics. They’ve also allowed an average of 14 goals per game in their last four games.

Meanwhile, the Thunderbirds have put together two of their better defensive efforts during their current win streak, but this defense still has lapses that I expect to rear their head once more against this Buffalo offense. Halifax’s 17.5% shooting percentage allowed isn’t much better than Buffalo’s and they’ve been particularly prone to allowing transition chances, which Buffalo can easily exploit.

Bet this total to surpass 24.5 at -113 on BetRivers.

Pick: Over 24.5

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New York Riptide vs. Toronto Rock

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

The NLL returns to Montreal for a marquee matchup between the red-hot New York Riptide and NLL Finals favorite Toronto Rock. Toronto is a 1.5-point favorite in the neutral site game and the total is between 22.5 and 23.5 depending on the sportsbook.

New York’s four-game win streak is no fluke. During that stretch, the Riptide has managed to beat the three best defensive teams this season (Georgia, San Diego, Calgary) and the team with the second-highest ranked offense (Buffalo) behind only New York themselves. New York is a playoff team that is going to be favored in more games than not in the back half of the season.

Yet, I expect this will be the week they come back to earth a bit.

Despite losing two of their last three games and some recent struggles on offense, I still rate Toronto as the best team in the league. Toronto ranks top four in both shots defended and goals over expectation according to LaxMetrics.

Nick Rose has been the best goaltender in the league so far this season. He leads all starting goalies in save percentage and goals against average and is fourth among starters in saves per 60 minutes. New York has been able to have success against other equally good goaltenders, but the story of New York’s recent success has been their defense. 

Players like Callum Jones and Zack Deakan have been impactful additions to the Riptide defense this season and starting goalie Cameron Dunkerly has been one of the best netminders during their recent 5-1 run. New York’s trust in Dunkerly has allowed them to play more aggressive and that was evident particularly in the second half of their game against the Seals when San Diego struggled to generate quality shots. The Seals' failure was their over reliance on players to win their one-on-one matchups and I don’t think Toronto will make the same mistake.

While the Rock offense has stalled in their past two games (both against Calgary) they faced a tougher Roughnecks defense and still displayed great ball movement and generated quality scoring chances. The Rock should be able to beat New York via ball movement and pick play and I expect Toronto to also take advantage of the Riptide’s typically porous transition defense. 

The time to bet the Riptide is coming, but this game is a great buy-low on Toronto and sell-high on New York. Bet Toronto Rock -1.5 at -120 on Caesars.

Pick: Toronto Rock -1.5

Calgary Roughnecks vs. Halifax Thunderbirds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

We successfully faded the Roughnecks on short rest two weeks ago and now I’m backing them against a team on short rest this weekend. We discussed Halifax’s first game of the weekend and why it should feature an offensive onslaught. While Halifax will have more than 24 hours between games this weekend, they’ll have to travel to Calgary for their second game of the weekend.

Meanwhile, Calgary finally earned a much-needed win on the road against the aforementioned Toronto Rock. No team’s record has been less indicative of how good they are than Calgary. The Roughnecks are one of the most balanced teams, ranking third in both shots defended and goals over expectation according to LaxMetrics. Despite their 3-5 record, they hold a +4 goal differential and 2023 NLL MVP Christian Del Bianco ranks fourth in save percentage among starters.

Calgary has also been the best in generating and scoring on transition chances, generating a league high 29 breakaways and scoring on 12 of them. The next closest team is Georgia with 22 breakaways and just eight breakaway goals. Expect the Roughnecks to be able to score on more than a couple of transition opportunities against a Halifax team prone to giving up breakaway chances.

I’d bet Calgary at this number and price even if Halifax wasn’t on short-rest, so getting a Thunderbirds team in their second game of the weekend is a bonus. Bet Roughnecks -1.5 at +120 on DraftKings.

Picks: Calgary Roughnecks -1.5

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