National Lacrosse League Betting Picks: NLL Week 5 Best Bets for Saturday & Sunday
December 16, 2023: Albany Firewolves vs Philadelphia Wings at the Wells Fargo Center. Photo courtesy of NLL
Week 5 in the National Lacrosse League continues with four more games to wrap up 2023 and ring in the new year. On Friday, we went 5-0 for +4.925 units, bringing our 2023-24 NLL season record to 15-8 for +7.775 units so far. Let's take a look at my four best bets for the rest of the weekend and keep the streak going.
If you’re an avid bettor who’s new to lacrosse or a lacrosse fan who’s new to betting, check out my guide on how to bet on lacrosse for some tips to use when placing a lacrosse bet.
Toronto Rock vs. New York Riptide
| Toronto Odds | -380 |
| New York Odds | +270 |
| Total | 22.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 4 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via bet365. Sign up with Action's bet365 bonus code to get bonus bets for all the upcoming National Lacrosse League matches!
The Toronto Rock, along with the Calgary Roughnecks, are drawing the rare -3.5 this weekend against a floundering New York Riptide team. Meanwhile, the total is sitting at 22.5, which is both a sign of respect for the Rock defense and an indictment of the Riptide offense.
The Rock should cover the 3.5-point spread, but they let both Philadelphia and Panther City hang around in both their wins, despite covering the spread in both. In fact, they needed an empty netter in the final minute to cover against Panther City and were just 2.5-point favorites then. I am as high as anyone on this Toronto team, picking them as my favorite at the beginning of the season, but there are better ways to back them to win than betting them on the spread.
The first angle is betting the total to go over 22.5 (-110 on bet365.) The Rock should be able to put up at least 13 points against a New York defense that has allowed 13 and 14 in two games this season. Judging by the Rock’s offensive metrics, 13 points is more likely the floor for this offense in this matchup. Despite two multi-goal wins, Toronto has struggled to capitalize on the quality scoring opportunities they’ve generated. According to LaxMetrics, their first order conversion percentage (the rate that quality chances become goals) is second-worst in the league at 20.8%. Considering the league average for the last three years has been 33%, I think we’ll see some positive scoring regression against a weak Riptide defense.
Meanwhile, New York has been one of the league's worst offenses across the board, scoring just six goals in their last game. Their -7.10 goals over expectation ranks last in the league and their offensive rating of 90.77 is second-worst in the NLL according to LaxMetrics. These numbers are surprising considering the talent on their roster that saw little turnover from last season and still features one of the best players in the league in Jeff Teat. The offense hasn’t been finishing the quality opportunities they have been generating and while they’ll have a tough test against Toronto, the Rock defense has been susceptible to giving up breakaway chances and New York tends to push in transition. I expect us to see a better showing from the Riptide and think they can do their part to push this total over 22.5.
The other angle is betting Mark Matthews to surpass 5.5 points (-140 on bet365.) The vig has moved from -110 to -140 to bet the over, but there is still an edge given the matchup and his role on this offense. Matthews has averaged exactly 5.5 points through two games but will face a Riptide defense that is allowing a 19.1% shooting percentage to opposing offenses. New York has also allowed six or more points to an opposing player in 13 of their last 15 losses, with Matthews as the prime candidate to continue that trend on Saturday.
Picks: Over 22.5, Mark Matthews Over 5.5 Points
Colorado Mammoth vs. Vancouver Warriors
| Colorado Odds | -158 |
| Vancouver Odds | +128 |
| Total | 22.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 9 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. When betting lacrosse, register with Action Network's FanDuel Sportsbook promo code today for a sign-up offer.
Later on Saturday, the Colorado Mammoth hosts the Vancouver Warriors. Despite an 0-2 record, Colorado is a slight favorite against the 1-2 Vancouver squad. While Vancouver didn’t come through for us last week, I think this is another good spot to bet an undervalued Warriors team on the road.
Colorado’s offense has been lackluster and sportsbooks tend to overvalue them in the regular season based on their back-to-back NLL Finals appearances. The Mammoth have missed Ryan Lee’s presence and even though Connor Kelly has been a welcomed addition, the offense struggles to generate quality chances in settled five-on-five sets. Colorado lacks a forward in the top-25 of LaxMetrics’ most outstanding player score rankings and they’ll face a Vancouver defense that is aggressive in settled sets.
Furthermore, Colorado’s defense has allowed a shooting percentage on contested shots of 24.3%, which is last in the NLL. Even with Dillon Ward in net, Colorado has struggled to help their goaltender, allowing 15 one-on-one chances to Georgia last week and averaging 30.5 goals against through two games, ironically both against Georgia. Now they’ll face a Vancouver team that loves to generate one-on-one chances in transition and upset the 3-1 Georgia Swarm two weeks ago.
I’d make Vancouver a slight favorite in this game, so I love betting Vancouver to win outright at +128 on the moneyline on FanDuel.
Pick: Vancouver Warriors Moneyline
Saskatchewan Rush vs. Albany FireWolves
| Saskatchewan Odds | -110 |
| Albany Odds | -110 |
| Total | 23.5 |
| Time | Sunday · 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. When betting lacrosse, register with Action Network's FanDuel Sportsbook promo code today for a sign-up offer.
The final NLL game of 2023 is on Sunday and features the 3-0 Albany FireWolves taking on the 1-2 Saskatchewan Rush. The total ranges from 23.5 to 24.5 depending on the sportsbook and is a pick'em on the moneyline.
I’ve bought into the Albany FireWolves team that looks like a legitimate contender despite being overlooked in the preseason. Yet, I think Saskatchewan can give them a competitive game, so I’d rather back these prolific offenses instead by betting the total.
The Rush lead the NLL with a team offensive rating of 163.13, while the FireWolves are second with 156.71 according to LaxMetrics. Both offenses have been extremely efficient on offense and each average more than 14 points per game. Additionally, while both defenses feature solid goaltending, they’ve allowed a combined average of 11.8 goals per game. Excluding the games when each team faced Las Vegas (the league’s worst offense), you’re left with four games with an average total of 28.5 goals scored.
This is a prime spot to bet over 23.5 at +100 on FanDuel.
Pick: Over 23.5
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