NCAA Men’s Lacrosse Betting Odds & Picks: Best Bets for Notre Dame vs Duke (April 7, 2024)
PHILADELPHIA, PA – MAY 29: Notre Dame Fighting Irish attack Chris Kavanagh (50) shoots the ball during the NCAA Division I Men’s Lacrosse Championship game between the Duke Blue Devils and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on May 29, 2023, at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA. (Photo by Erica Denhoff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Sunday afternoon features a rematch of the 2023 NCAA men’s lacrosse championship that featured No. 1 Notre Dame and No. 3 Duke. On Tuesday, I layed out why both Duke and Notre Dame have a great chance at making another championship run in 2024. For Sunday, I’ll discuss why a particular player prop is my best bet for the title game rematch.
If you’re an avid bettor who’s new to lacrosse or a lacrosse fan who’s new to betting, check out my guide on how to bet on lacrosse for some tips to use when placing a lacrosse bet.
No. 3 Duke vs. No. 1 Notre Dame
| Duke (+1.5) Odds | +110 |
| Notre Dame (-1.5) Odds | -134 |
| Total | 25.5 |
| Time | Sunday · 12 p.m. ET |
| TV | ACC Network |
Odds via FanDuel
Notre Dame enters its rematch with Duke as the top team in the nation, and the defending champions are 1.5-point road favorites. The total for this meeting is 25.5 after a 13-9 score in the title game and 17-12 finish in their regular-season matchup.
The spread and total are spot on by my estimation. Duke ranks first in adjusted defensive efficiency and third in adjusted offensive efficiency, while Notre Dame ranks third and first in those respective categories. Neither team has a major edge at faceoff either, with Notre Dame ranking sixth and Duke ranking 12th in adjusted faceoff percentage, according to Lacrosse Reference. The total is difficult to gauge as well considering how efficient both teams are on offense and defense and their conflicting paces. Notre Dame’s offense is one of the slowest at 64th in pace, while the Blue Devils are much faster, ranking 24th.
Ultimately, the best bet available for this game is a player prop.
Chris Kavanagh quietly leads the Irish in points despite recording just one goal in each of his last two games. Notre Dame’s depth has allowed the Irish to thrive without Kavanagh. Yet, I expect he’ll be called upon in this matchup with Duke.
Despite his two most recent outings, the younger Kavanagh brother has scored multiple goals in four of seven games and has at least two goals in 18 of his last 23 games — including both games against Duke last season. In the 2023 championship, the Blue Devils prioritized keeping Pat Kavanagh in check, holding him to just a point. This opened up opportunities for other players like Chris Kavanagh, who scored five goals in the title game.
While I don’t expect Chris Kavanagh to score as many goals Sunday, I think the odds of him finding the back of the net at least twice are better than the odds FanDuel is offering. His goals prop is currently 1.5 and the over is priced at -146, implying a 59.35% chance that he goes over. Based on this season and last year, his chances are closer to 78%. Even if you only considered games against ACC or Big Ten opponents, he’s still scored at least two goals in 75% of those 16 games.
Don’t fear the juice and bet Chris Kavanagh to go over 1.5 goals against Duke on Sunday.
Pick: Chris Kavanagh Over 1.5 Goals
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