NCAA Men’s Lacrosse Betting Picks: Best Bets for College Lacrosse Week 8

We’re already entering Week 8 in college lacrosse and there are plenty of conference matchups occurring this weekend as conference play heats up. This weekend, I’m targeting four conference matchups and a big out-of-conference showdown that could have at-large NCAA Tournament implications.

Let’s dive into my top five NCAA lacrosse best bets and betting picks for Week 8.

If you’re an avid bettor who’s new to lacrosse or a lacrosse fan who’s new to betting, check out my guide on how to bet on lacrosse for some tips to use when placing a lacrosse bet.

North Carolina vs. No. 6 Army

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Both North Carolina and Army are coming off upset losses in which both were big favorites. Army dropped a Patriot League matchup with Boston, 14-9, while the Tar Heels blew a six-goal lead in a 12-11 loss to High Point. Army enters Saturday’s contest as a 2.5-point favorite at some sportsbooks.

Yet, I think the matchup favors North Carolina.

UNC’s collapse featured their offense stalling in the fourth quarter and defense allowing five straight unassisted goals before a wild behind-the-back pass and backhand goal gave High Point the lead and eventual win. The Tar Heels struggled at the faceoff—which could happen again against Army—but they prevented any potential fast breaks off the draw and were aggressive on ground balls despite often losing the clamp.

The Tar Heel ride was also effective against High Point, forcing five failed clears, and could cause some issues for an Army team that had four failed clears against Boston and turned the ball over multiple times early in the shot clock.

Army still boasts the 7th-best adjusted offensive efficiency during competitive situations, but their defense ranks 50th in adjusted efficiency and has shown cracks despite the team’s 7-1 record. North Carolina on the other hand ranks 30th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 14th in adjusted defensive efficiency according to Lacrosse Reference. The Black Knights 6th-best faceoff unit has been key in many of their wins, but Boston overcame a possession disadvantage in their multi-goal win last weekend and the Tar Heels faceoff ranks just one spot behind Army’s.

Even if Army’s Will Coletti is able to give the Black Knights a slight possession advantage, I trust North Carolina’s offense to have success. Army’s defense will be the third-worst they’ll have faced this season in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency and is prone to giving up goals around the crease—an area the Tar Heels have had success scoring from.

Bet North Carolina +2.5 at -125 on Caesars.

Pick: North Carolina +2.5

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Navy vs. Colgate

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

In the Patriot League, Navy hosts a Colgate team whose one of only two wins last season was a 17-8 win over the Midshipmen. The game is priced near a pick ‘em at most sportsbooks with Colgate as the slight underdog at a couple sportsbooks.

While I’m not sure if we’ll see the Raiders double up Navy again this year, they should leave Annapolis with a victory on Saturday.

In addition to being incredibly inconsistent, Navy ranks 48th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 35th in adjusted defensive efficiency during competitive situations according to Lacrosse Reference. Meanwhile, Colgate’s offense ranks 29th and their defense ranks 23rd in those same situations. While Navy’s faceoff unit ranks 11th compared to Colgate’s 59th, Navy has lost two games despite facing off at better than 52%. On the other hand, four of Colgate’s wins came despite facing off at worse than 45%.

Colgate outmatches Navy enough on both the offensive and defensive end to overcome a potential possession disadvantage and get the outright win (-105 on Caesars or FanDuel) on Saturday afternoon.

Pick: Colgate ML

Bucknell vs. Lafayette

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

We move to another Patriot League matchup featuring Lafayette and Bucknell. Last year, Lafayette won a 14-13 overtime thriller and this season they enter the rematch as a 2.5-point favorite. I expect them to not only win again this year, but also cover the spread.

Lafayette’s defense really struggled in their past five games, ranking 61st in adjusted defensive efficiency during competitive situations. Yet, their 10th-ranked offense and 31st-ranked faceoff unit have made up for their shortcomings on defenses. They also matchup really well against Bucknell, who during competitive situations ranks 66th in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency and 55th in adjusted faceoff percentage according to Lacrosse Reference.

Lafayette should be able to generate faceoff wins into quality offensive possessions and play “make it, take it” en route to a win and cover.

Bet Lafayette -2.5 at -115 on BetMGM and DraftKings.

Pick: Lafayette -2.5

No. 1 Notre Dame vs. No. 3 Syracuse

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

In a game that could determine next week’s top-ranked team, current No.1 Notre Dame hosts No. 3 Syracuse in an ACC showdown. The Irish are 2.5-point favorites at most sportsbooks and the total is 26.5.

The spread is right in my eyes, but this total is a tad too high even considering how efficient both offenses are. While Syracuse and Notre Dame both rank in the Top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency, this total overlooks how efficient both defenses have been. The Orange rank 3rd in adjusted defensive efficiency during competitive situations, while the Irish rank 7th. The faceoff battle should be fairly even between both teams, meaning we could also see both teams value longer possessions and a slower tempo.

Speaking of tempo, Notre Dame’s pace ranks 65th and while Syracuse’s is on the faster end at 15th, they’ve played slower in games against ranked opponents and also when there is not as big of a faceoff disparity. Both defenses have held their last three opponents to 10 goals or fewer and I wouldn’t be shocked if at least one of these defenses does so again on Saturday.

Bet this ACC matchup to stay under 26.5 goals at -115 on DraftKings.

Pick: Under 26.5

No. 4 Penn State vs. No. 12 Maryland

Odds via FanDuel

The weekend wraps with a Sunday showdown between Penn State and Maryland. Penn State is a short as a 1.5-point favorite, but the total of 23.5 is where the real value lies.

Both teams rank in the Top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency, with Penn State ranking fourth and Maryland ranking 10th during competitive situations. Both defenses are also anchored by goaltenders that rank in the Top 15 in adjusted save percentage according to Lacrosse Reference.

While the Nittany Lions also rank 5th in offensive efficiency, Maryland’s 14th-ranked faceoff unit could limit the amount of possessions Penn State’s high-powered offense gets. Even considering the efficient Nittany Lions offense, both the Penn State and Maryland offenses play at extremely slow paces, with the Nittany Lions ranking 2nd-slowest and the Terps ranking 15th-slowest in the nation.

Expect this Big Ten meeting to be a slugfest and bet it to stay under 23.5 at -115 on BetMGM or FanDuel.

Pick: Under 23.5

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