Brewers vs. Padres Odds & Betting Predictions - August 11, 2026

🎯 Mize -5 net bases prevented. Few fun SBs bets

Our model really likes the pitching in this matchup and projects just 6.2 total runs. Logan Henderson gets the ball for Milwaukee, and he has quietly been one of the better arms in baseball this season. Henderson enters tonight with a 2.70 ERA and a 2.61 xERA, 2.94 xFIP, and 2.82 SIERA. I love the way his stuff matches up with this Padres lineup. Henderson has legitimate swing and miss stuff and has shown an ability to generate strikeouts without giving away many free passes. His .201 xBA is elite and this Padres lineup owns just a 99 wRC+ against right handed pitching. On the other side, I think this is a really good bounce back spot for Casey Mize. His Padres debut was obviously a disaster, but I’m not going to let one start completely change how I view the pitcher he has been this season. Mize had a 2.70 ERA and 2.58 FIP across 86.2 innings with Detroit before being traded, and those numbers are much more indicative of how well he has pitched this year. He’s throwing strikes, missing more bats, and has done a much better job keeping the ball in the ballpark. I’m willing to buy low after one awful outing. I also like getting this game at Petco Park, where I’m much more comfortable backing two quality starting pitchers in a low total environment. Both bullpens are also elite Give me the Brewers vs Padres UNDER 7 tonight.

@Zerillo https://myaction.app/ztQiP41Cu5b

Write-Up action network.com

Bet to -135

(FD) Henderson 2.82 SIERA/2.60 xERA/106 Pitching+, Mize 3.86/3.32/99, most other aspects (offense, defense, bullpens) comparable, but MIL 8 BRR proj edge too.