Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Jon Anderson has that job for Monday, August 10.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Masataka Yoshida 2+ H+R+RBI
- Reid Detmers Under 16.5 Outs
- MacKenzie Gore Under 16.5 Outs
- Orioles Moneyline
- Blade Tidwell 4+ Strikeouts, 5+ Strikeouts
- MIL/SDP Under 7.5
- COL/ARI Over 8.5
- Hughes Under 3.5 Strikeouts
- KC/LAD Under 7.5
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Picks
The Red Sox send Sonny Gray to the hill to oppose Jameson Taillon, who the Blue Jays picked up off waivers as they try to finish out a rough season with their World Series hangover going on.
Gray has been a great pickup for the Red Sox. He's given Boston a 2.78 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP in 119.2 innings so far. His best skill is limiting home runs. He's given up just 12 in 21 starts for a 0.9 HR/9. This Blue Jays team is fourth-lowest in baseball with 114 home runs hit this year, and since July 1st, they are second-lowest in the league.
On the other side is Taillon, who is no stranger to giving up the long ball. He has given up 26 homers in 80 innings, and that's the kind of stat that makes you lose your job. Taillon has given up 14 homers to lefties and 12 to righties, so it goes both ways.
The Blue Jays did make a change with Taillon after acquiring him, it seems. He threw his fastball a bit harder and dropped the changeup usage. He threw his four-seamer and cutter pretty evenly and then threw a curveball for the putaway pitch. And that ended up being 16 whiffs, the second-most he's gotten all season. That could just be a random blip that won't make any sense looking back on it, or it could be a sign of a change in approach that helps him get a few more strikeouts. But my projection is 4.2 strikeouts for Taillon and the betting line is at 4.5, so I can't really recommend that.
The best matchup on the hitting side for the Red Sox looks to be Masataka Yoshida. Against stuff like what Taillon throws the last few years, Yoshida has a .363 xwOBA with a tiny little 7.3% SwStr%. He makes a lot of contact, and hits it hard. With the Red Sox lineup rolling all around him, we're taking Yoshida in the H+R+RBI market.
Pick: Masataka Yoshida 2+ H+R+RBI -113
Rangers vs Angels Picks
It's a matchup of nasty, but frustrating, lefties. We have MacKenzie Gore going into LA to take on Reid Detmers.
A couple of notes on these two pitchers. Check out Gore's home/road splits:
- at home: 27% K%, 7% BB%, 3.27 ERA, 1.07 WHIP
- on road: 24% K%, 10% BB%, 5.79 ERA, 1.41 WHIP
There's something about that park in Arlington that makes it a lot easier to pitch, and Gore has not looked comfortable away from home. The Angels lineup doesn't look very good right now, but they will be able to throw seven right-handed bats at Gore if they want, which should help them get some extra batted balls into play. But they strike out a ton, so I don't want to bet the under on Gore's strikeouts. If he's going to struggle here on the road, it will probably be low efficiency and walks rather than an inability to fool anybody.
The story line on Detmers is that they might be easing up with his usage. We thought they might trade him at the deadline, but either they didn't try or didn't get the big return offer they wanted. So now he's looking like their SP1 for next year, and he's already doubled his innings total from last year when he was a reliever. We saw them pull after him just four innings and 81 pitches last time. I have a feeling this will be the next norm for him as they just make sure they get him to the offseason healthy.
So I like both pitchers to have short nights.
Pick: Reid Detmers Under 16.5 Outs (-109), MacKenzie Gore Under 16.5 Outs (-126)
Orioles vs Twins Picks
Trevor Rogers is very hot, you could say. Since June began, his 2.28 ERA is the sixth-best in the league for pitchers who have made at least ten starts. And tonight he gets to face a Twins lineup which has hit .203/.280/.360 since losing Byron Buxton to the IL again. It sets up very well for Rogers.
On the other side is Dean Kremer, who will face his former team. My projection likes him a little bit:
- 5.2 IP, 4.6 H, 2.4 ER, 6.1 K, 2.0 BB
But the Orioles know the guy well, and they have the advantage in this one even though their lineup is nothing special either.
All things considered, I like the Orioles to get a road win. The projections point toward Rogers out-dueling Kremer here, and his floor as a pitcher is way higher than what we have with Kremer.
So I'm backing the O's to beat their old friend Kremer.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline (-117)
Astros vs Giants Picks
It's two unknown pitchers going at it here — Hayden Wesneski for the Astros and Blade Tidwell for the Giants.
Tidwell is a guy we're keeping an eye on in the fantasy league discussion. He has a pretty big arm with some really good stuff; it just hasn't worked out very well since he's had to pitch mostly in the Pacific Coast League, the toughest league to pitch in.
He made a start on August 4th and got just three strikeouts against the Rangers. It wasn't a great outing strikeout-wise, but the pitch movement he has did keep the ball away from the barrel of the bat and he more than survived it.
His sweeper is very, very good. It grades out well in all regards and has a 18.1% SwStr% against Major Leaguers this year. That plus a 96mph fastball makes me think this guy is going to be a decent strikeout pitcher. But he's priced like a normal replacement minor league pitcher. I think there's some nice value there.
Pick: Blade Tidwell 4+ Strikeouts (-132), Blade Tidwell 5+ Strikeouts (+176)
Brewers vs Padres Picks
A big series for the Padres as they host one of the best teams in the league. They'll send Casey Mize to the hill to face Logan Henderson.
Mize did not impress Padres fans in his debut, giving up eight runs on nine hits for his worst start of the year (by far). But for the year, he has a nice 3.40 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP. And the key point here — he's given up just six homers in 90 innings. He has this way about him where all of the fly balls he gives up go way, way up in the air. His command is very good and he knows where to put the fastball to minimize damage of the hitter does catch up to it.
His 6% HR/FB is ridiculously low. So low that it can't continue. It's one of the five lowest HR/FB rates of the last six seasons in the Majors. But I think it's going to stay there after this one, because he has a lot going for him in this matchup.
First, the home park. It's one of the toughest parks to homer in you'll find. And the Brewers are dead last in homers in the league with 109. Amazingly, they've won as many games as they have with so little ability to score runs in one swing. They're extremely good at every other facet of the game.
But yeah, Mize is very likely to put another zero up in the "HR" column in this start.
And then you have Logan Henderson going for the Brewers. He has a 2.70 ERA this year on a 32% K% and a 5% BB%. The one thing he struggles a bit with is the home run (1.26 HR/9), but this is a major park upgrade for him in that regard.
I think both pitchers are going to have a game here. Runs are going to be hard to come by in this series. The Padres maintained their league-best bullpen through the deadline, so things just get tougher for the Brewers as they get later into the game.
Plus, we have this stuff going on with the baseball again. I'll let you look into the details of that, it's not hard to find. But the long story short is that it seems like the baseball has been different in the second half. EVs are down which brings home runs down.
MLB PA/HR First Half: 32.5
MLB PA/HR Second Half: 33.9
That's just a 1.4 PA/HR difference numerically, but it's significant when you extrapolate that out. I think this is a homerless game. Both bullpens are good, neither offense packs a ton of punch, and it all points toward some kind of 3-2 Brewers win.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-122)
Rockies vs Diamondbacks Picks
Gabriel Hughes is a better pitcher than what the Rockies usually throw out there. He has a 4.25 ERA this year, which is like a 3.25 ERA for the Rockies. But he's a sinker-heavy pitcher and it looks like the league has started seeing him a bit better after they've gotten some tape and experience against him.
Hughes' K% is 23%, but the Diamondbacks lineup is one of the best in the league, and the second-best on this slate, at keeping strikeouts to a minimum. They have a team 19% K%, an elite number, and it's even better than that over the last couple of months as they've gotten all their regulars together. Perdomo is at 12% since June began, Moreno at 12%, Marte at 16%, Vargas at 10%. It goes on and on, this is a lineup built for contact and base running.
So I'm fading Hughes on the road here. It's Mike Soroka returning for the Diamondbacks. He hasn't been on a Major League mound since June 19th, and he made just one rehab outing before getting back here (four innings, one strikeout in that one).
I don't like either pitcher, and the bullpens are bad as well. I have two picks.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-115), Gabriel Hughes Under 3.5 K (+110)
Royals vs Dodgers Picks
The Dodgers just broke a seven-game losing streak, and now things lighten up as they head home to open a series with the Royals behind their new SP1 Tarik Skubal.
But you know a lefty who has pitched better (results-wise) than Skubal in the last couple of weeks? That's Royals starter Noah Cameron. His last three:
- 7 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 8 K, 3 BB vs. DET
- 8 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 7 K, 2 BB vs. MIN
- 8 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 9 K, 1 BB vs. MIN
Facing down the Dodgers is a little bit different than the Tigers and Twins right now, but Cameron has found a groove. And it's not the first time, either. He's had some runs of being nearly untouchable in his two seasons in the Majors. It usually ends ugly, but right at the beginning of this three-game streak, he started calling his own pitches. That was a big change that was followed immediately by production.
Are we backing Cameron against the Dodgers and up against Skubal? As a +256 underdog, I don't hate it that much. The Dodgers just aren't hitting like they usually do. They're in the middle of the pack with a .712 OPS since the All-Star Break, and they're a little bit worse against lefties. They also have some bullpen issues with Will Klein hurt and Edwin Diaz really struggling again.
So if you want a potential 3.5 to 1 return on a moneyline, there you go. I think that's pretty nice value. But unlikely to hit since it's Skubal on the mound.
My take is the UNDER 7.5. Betting on Cameron to keep his streak going and for Skubal to be Skubal.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-107)
Anderson's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, August 10
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Masataka Yoshida 2+ H+R+RBI
- Reid Detmers Under 16.5 Outs
- MacKenzie Gore Under 16.5 Outs
- Orioles Moneyline
- Blake Tidwell 4+ Strikeouts, 5+ Strikeouts
- MIL/SDP Under 7.5
- COL/ARI Over 8.5
- Hughes Under 3.5 Strikeouts
- KC/LAD Under 7.5
