We have a 10-game Major League Baseball slate tonight to start the week.
Our staff of baseball bettors has expert picks from the first game, Red Sox vs. Blue Jays (7:07 PM ET at Rogers Center), to the last one, Royals vs. Dodgers at 10:10 PM ET (Dodger Stadium).
Read on for our 5 MLB Best Bets Today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:07 PM | |
  | 7:40 PM | |
  | 9:38 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
  | 10:10 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Mike Ianniello's Red Sox vs Blue Jays Best Bet
Monday night should be a home run fest for a Boston team that ranks second in the league in slugging percentage over the last month. The Red Sox have hit 35 home runs in their last 25 games and have 20 dingers in the last 14 games.
They clearly have a massive advantage in starting pitching, but that advantage does not get any smaller when the starters exit. They have the best bullpen in baseball. According to B.A.R.T.O.L.O., the Boston bullpen ranks No. 1, and Toronto’s sits at No. 21 in their current form.
The Blue Jays are coming off back-to-back extra-inning games in Philadelphia, putting a tax on their relievers. Closer Louis Varland is likely unavailable, as are Braydon Fisher, Brendon Little, and Spencer Miles.
Just like on the mound, Boston has a massive advantage at the plate right now. The Red Sox have scored the most runs and sit fourth in team OPS over the last month. Toronto ranks in the bottom five in runs, OPS, and home runs over that stretch and on the season as a whole.
Expect the Red Sox to bounce back with Sonny Gray on the mound and continue their winning ways. Toronto has been one of the worst teams in baseball all season. Given Boston’s sizable advantage on offense and in pitching throughout this game, I am willing to lay the juice with them here.
Pick: Red Sox ML (-146)
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Jon Anderson's Orioles vs Twins Best Bet
By Jon Anderson
Trevor Rogers is very hot, you could say. Since June began, his 2.28 ERA is the sixth-best in the league for pitchers who have made at least 10 starts.
Tonight, the Orioles starter gets to face a Twins lineup which has hit .203/.280/.360 since losing Byron Buxton to the IL again. It sets up very well for the lefty.
On the other side is Dean Kremer, who will face his former team.
My projection likes him a little bit:
- 5.2 IP, 4.6 H, 2.4 ER, 6.1 K, 2.0 BB
However, the Orioles know the guy well, and they have the advantage in this one even though their lineup is nothing special either.
The projections point toward Rogers out-dueling Kremer here, and his floor as a pitcher is way higher than what we have with Kremer.
So I'm backing the O's to beat their old friend.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline (-111)
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Sean Zerillo's Rangers vs Angels Best Bet
By Sean Zerillo
My model shows solid value on the total for this Rangers vs. Angels matchup.
BARTOLO projects the Rangers for 3.91 runs and the Angels for 3.69 tonight, which would bring the total under the line.
If you want to dive deeper into this matchup, it'd be wise to check out our new PRO baseball tool, BARTOLO, which gives you access to all the input data he uses to project games every day.
Pick: Under 8.5 (Play to 8)
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John Feltman's Brewers vs Padres Best Bet
By John Feltman
I’m backing Milwaukee tonight, and a big part of the handicap comes down to buying Logan Henderson while continuing to look for regression from Casey Mize.
Mize’s 3.40 ERA looks perfectly respectable, but I’m not convinced he’s been as dominant as the surface numbers suggest. There are definitely legitimate improvements in the Padres starter's profile, but some of what we saw earlier this season screamed regression.
Now he draws a Milwaukee lineup that doesn’t solely rely on the long ball.
The bigger edge for me is Henderson.
The kid has been straight-up dealing. Henderson enters 6-1 with a 2.70 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 62 strikeouts against only 10 walks in 50 innings.
He owns a 2.61 xERA, 3.09 FIP and 2.94 xFIP, with an 11.16 K/9 and just 1.80 BB/9. This is the type of pitcher that I want to back.
Give me the Brew Crew to cash this one.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline (-112)
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Charlie Wright's Royals vs Dodgers Best Bet
This is a strong pitching matchup. Tarik Skubal was his usual dominant self in his Dodgers debut, cruising through six innings in an extremely tough spot against the Cubs at Wrigley.
Meanwhile, Royals SP Noah Cameron has allowed just one earned run over his last three outings, which have spanned 23 innings pitched. He's permitted just six hits in this stretch.
The main change has been more cutters and sliders instead of 4-seamers. It's a good choice, as his fastball has been hammered (51.1% hard-hit rate).
Cameron isn't this good, but he's been missing bats at a massive clip and keeping the ball on the ground.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5 (-148)
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