The San Diego Padres host the Milwaukee Brewers on August 10, 2026. First pitch from Petco Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on SDPA.
The Brewers are favored by -108 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Padres are +100 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Brewers vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Brewers vs Padres Prediction
- Brewers vs Padres Pick: Brewers ML (-112)
My Brewers vs Padres best bet is on Milwaukee to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Brewers vs Padres Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 7.5 -100o / -122u | -108 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -178 | 7.5 -100o / -122u | +100 |
- Brewers vs Padres moneyline: Brewers -108, Padres +100
- Brewers vs Padres over/under: 7.5 (-100o / -122u)
- Brewers vs Padres spread: Brewers -1.5 (+146), Padres +1.5 (-178)
Brewers vs Padres Probable Pitchers
| Logan Henderson (RHP, MIL) | Stat | Casey Mize (RHP, SD) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | W-L | 4-7 |
| 1.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.8 |
| 2.70 / 2.61 | ERA / xERA | 3.40 / 3.33 |
| 3.09 / 2.94 | FIP / xFIP | 2.81 / 3.95 |
| 27.1 | K-BB% | 17.6 |
| 29.7 | GB% | 32.7 |
| .250 | BABIP | .282 |
| 105 | Stuff+ | 89 |
| 105 | Location+ | 108 |
Brewers vs Padres MLB Betting Preview
I’m backing Milwaukee tonight, and a big part of the handicap comes down to buying Logan Henderson while continuing to look for regression from Casey Mize.
Mize’s 3.40 ERA looks perfectly respectable, but I’m not convinced he’s been as dominant as the surface numbers suggest. There are definitely legitimate improvements in his profile, but some of what we saw earlier this season screamed regression.
His underlying indicators have been less convincing at different points, including a SIERA sitting roughly a full run above his ERA earlier this year, and that’s important when evaluating whether the breakout is completely sustainable.
We finally saw some of that regression hit him like a truck in his Padres debut.
Arizona absolutely shelled Mize for eight earned runs, nine hits and three walks in just 3 and 1/3 innings. That wasn’t some cheap BABIP death-by-a-thousand-cuts outing, either. He simply didn’t have it.
Now he draws a Milwaukee lineup that doesn’t solely rely on the long ball.
The Brewers rank just 30th in home runs, but they’re still fifth in MLB in runs scored, seventh in OPS and fourth in stolen bases. They hit .253/.337/.398 as a team and manufacture offense as well as almost anybody. This is a lineup built to grind at-bats, get traffic on the bases and create chaos once runners reach.
Yes, Milwaukee is banged up. Cooper Pratt is on the IL, Sal Frelick remains out, and Joey Ortiz has been dealing with neck tightness, but there is still plenty of production that can make the lineup pay.
The bigger edge for me is Henderson.
The kid has been straight-up dealing. Henderson enters 6-1 with a 2.70 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 62 strikeouts against only 10 walks in 50 innings. More importantly, the advanced numbers aren't waving a giant regression flag.
He owns a 2.61 xERA, 3.09 FIP and 2.94 xFIP, with an 11.16 K/9 and just 1.80 BB/9. This is the type of pitcher that I want to back.
Brewers vs Padres Pick, Betting Analysis
San Diego's offense has improved recently, but over the full season this has still been a bottom-tier unit, ranking 25th in OPS and 22nd in runs scored. Henderson's ability to miss bats while limiting free passes is a nasty combination against a lineup that hasn't consistently generated offense.
And if this turns into a battle of the pens, Milwaukee can hang there too. The Brewers enter with a 3.49 bullpen ERA, fourth-best in baseball, while their pitching staff overall ranks second with a 3.47 ERA.
Mize has pitched better in 2026, but I'm selling the idea that he's suddenly an ace. Henderson gives Milwaukee the starting-pitching edge, and the Brewers have been the better baseball team all year.
Give me the Brew Crew to cash this one.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline (-112, FanDuel)
