2019 World Series Odds Tracker: Phillies, Rays Falling Fast at Halfway Mark

Credit:

Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Blake Snell.

Jun 27, 2019, 11:48 AM EDT
  • The 2019 MLB season is halfway over and there have been some interesting changes in the World Series odds over the past month.
  • Both the AL and NL East have featured some significant changes in the standings, which has caused the Rays and Phillies to both fall from +1200 to +2500 since early June.

Summer is in full swing and the MLB all-star break is less than two weeks away. The majority of teams have played between 80 and 82 games, reaching that halfway point of the 162 campaign. I think the players and bettors alike are looking forward to that break coming up.

Over the past month, there have been some significant swings on the World Series odds list.

Many of the contenders have held pat, but a couple in particular have fallen off in a big way since the beginning of June.

2019 World Series Odds Tracker

Risers

New York Yankees: +500 to +400 (+3.3% Implied Probability)

These Yankees have fought through adversity to become the American League’s top World Series contender in the eyes of the oddsmakers. It’s basically like when you need to fight off waves of incoming enemies while you wait for reinforcements to come in a video game. They maintained an excellent record for weeks and weeks despite having hoards of star players on the injured list, and finally, some of those guys are coming back.

They’ve slowly gotten themselves a cushiony 7-game lead in the AL East over the Rays and are on pace for 105 wins. Can they be even better in the second half once they’re healthier?

Los Angeles Dodgers: +350 to +300 (+2.8% IP)

Despite some doubts in the spring, the Dodgers are once again proving that they are the team to beat in the National League. With a 12-game lead over the Rockies, they have the easiest path to a division title and could push for 110 wins at the pace they’re on.

Atlanta Braves: +1600 to +1200 (+1.8% IP)

Though they had the fourth-best odds to win the division at some books despite taking the crown last year, the Braves have snuck out to a 5.5-game lead over the Phillies thanks to the latter’s recent troubles. Since the last odds update, Atlanta has gone a boisterous 16-6 while Philly has gone just 9-12.

By adding Dallas Keuchel, they can have a veteran arm to fall back on and a guy who knows what it takes to win a World Series. Their young arms have done them well so far, but you can never have too much pitching — especially Cy Young winners and World Series champs.

Fallers

Philadelphia Phillies: +1200 to +2500 (-3.9% IP)

As I just mentioned, the Phillies have had an ugly stretch over the past few weeks. I think they may have reached rock bottom when they were swept by the Marlins, as they were able to sweep the Mets to start off the week.

Not only did they lose a lot of games recently, but they also lost Andrew McCutchen for the rest of the season with a torn ACL. McCutchen was having a strong season at the plate and the Phils will rely on the newly acquired Jay Bruce to fill his void in the lineup.

Tampa Bay Rays: +1200 to +2500 (-3.9% IP)

The Rays are having tough times of their own, going just 10-13 since the last update after starting off with a 35-22 record. Their record is still solid, but a sweep at the hands of the Yankees in addition to their mediocre stretch of play has caused them to fall back in the standings big time.

What’s perhaps more troublesome is how Blake Snell has pitched recently. In his past three starts, he’s gone a combined 7 innings with 16 earned runs, 9 walks and 7 strikeouts. That stretch of ugliness has caused his ERA to skyrocket from 3.50 to 5.01 — a legitimately difficult thing to do at this point of the season.

The Rays are a crafty team that has milked everything they can out of their roster, but they need their Cy Young winner to pitch like one for the rest of the season.

Houston Astros: +400 to +450 (-1.8% IP)

The ‘Stros are still legit, but have been overtaken by the Yankees at the top of the list. Much like New York, they have dealt with some key injuries and had to play without Jose Altuve, George Springer and Carlos Correa for a lengthy bit of time. They’ve gotten back Altuve and Springer so we shall see if they can keep up or even improve on their 100-win pace after an uncharacteristic couple of weeks which included a 6-game losing streak.

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