The MLB Home Run Derby will take center stage at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania at 8:00 p.m. ET on Monday, July 13. Our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, has locked in his top betting prediction for tonight's event.
Let's dive into the data-driven breakdown of his MLB Home Run Derby pick for Monday, July 13.
MLB Home Run Derby Betting Preview, Odds
Our Top Home Run Derby Prop: Jordan Walker to Win Home Run Derby (+800)
I’m up to nearly 400 official plays since the NFL season wrapped up. Did you really think I wasn’t going to have a Home Run Derby play?
Baseball was one of the main sports I played growing up, and I’ve watched the Derby for 30+ straight years now. It’s always been one of my favorite novelty events. It’s important to still treat it that way and not as some get-rich-quick scheme.
Having said that, I think Walker is being overlooked here. He has one of the lowest ticket percentages in the field, so his odds have drifted enough that I think there’s value.
I also think the new format helps him, especially with longest home run distance serving as the tiebreaker in the opening round. There’s a decent chance he finishes top 2 in longest HR, which is a sneaky edge.
But one of my favorite parts of handicapping the Derby, and one of the most overlooked factors, is who is pitching to each hitter.
There’s a ton of pressure on the pitcher to simply groove pitches into the exact spot the hitter wants. They don’t have to be great. They just can’t get the yips and throw the hitter’s timing off.
The Derby pitcher isn’t going to win it for you, but they absolutely can lose it.
Ben Rice and Jac Caglianone will each have their dads pitching to them, which I actually love. There’s obviously a ton of chemistry there, and Bryce Harper’s dad pitched to him when he won the 2018 Derby, so having your dad throw to you certainly isn’t a bad thing. But it does introduce a wider range of outcomes.
The national stage can put just enough nerves on anyone where they’re a little less consistent than normal, and that’s all it takes to throw off a hitter’s rhythm.
Harper is another interesting case. Since his dad hasn’t thrown in a few years, he’ll have Dodgers 3rd base coach Dino Ebel pitching to him. They worked together at the WBC, but they don’t have nearly the same chemistry as a typical Derby pitcher/hitter duo.
Walker, meanwhile, is going with Cardinals bullpen catcher Kleininger Teran, who already has Derby experience after pitching to Albert Pujols during his 2022 run to the semifinals.
Walker has been taking BP from Teran this season and specifically mentioned how consistently he can throw the ball middle-in, exactly where he wants it.
Everyone thinks of the Derby as just eight guys trying to hit the ball as far as possible, and obviously that’s the biggest factor. But who is throwing those pitches matters a lot more than people realize.
More than anything, I want a pitcher with a high floor, and I think Walker may have one of the better setups in the field in that regard. At +800, I think he’s being overlooked.
