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Aaron Judge Home Run Odds & Expert Analysis: Will Yankees Star Notch Number 61 Thursday vs. Red Sox?

Aaron Judge Home Run Odds & Expert Analysis: Will Yankees Star Notch Number 61 Thursday vs. Red Sox? article feature image
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Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Judge (Yankees)

Aaron Judge’s home run quest has dominated the headlines in the MLB over recent weeks, and the Yankees star will look to hit number 61 tonight against the Red Sox.

That would tie Roger Maris’ 61 home run mark as an American League record, a number that also represents the current Yankees season record.

FanDuel currently has the best odds on the market for Judge to hit a home run Thursday vs. the Red Sox, with the slugger listed at +240 to go deep on the Sox.

Judge has the shortest odds of any player in the game, with Rafael Devers and Anthony Rizzo listed at +320 and Giancarlo Stanton at +350.

Judge is listed at +200 to hit one out of the park at Caesars and PointsBet, and just +195 at DraftKings.

If you want to take the under 0.5 on Judge homers tonight, you can find him at -275 at DraftKings and BetMGM.

As you might expect, the over market is dominating in terms of public tickets. At MGM, Judge’s home run over has received 93% of the tickets and 73.6% of the betting handle.

For expert analysis on what you should be playing in the Judge home run market, read on for Sean Zerillo’s thoughts.

Zerillo’s Home Run Analysis for Aaron Judge

Sabersim (which I’m assuming is weather-neutral) puts Judge at an estimated 0.35 for tonight. That would be a 56.7 full-season home run pace.

Break even odds at that price would be around +186.

Considering you can get +195 at DraftKings, or +240 at FanDuel, the over market is not bad on the surface.

However, Judge is 0-14 against Red Sox starting pitcher Michael Wacha with 9 K’s (1 BB). I don’t put a ton of stock into Batter vs. Pitcher head-to-head stats, especially over a limited sample, but striking out nine times in 14 at-bats against any pitcher is actually a bit concerning.

Wind is technically blowing out to right field tonight, but considering the temperature in New York and the rain all day, the park should be playing about 8% below league average, and about 7% below the baseline for Yankee Stadium.

I’m on under 8.5 runs in the matchup, and the total actually moved down to 8 overnight, so there was enough action for the over/under to dip.

As a result, I would drop Judge’s projection closer to 0.32 homers for tonight, putting the fair odds closer to +213.

I think a play at +240 is potentially justifiable, as I would seek +233 (30% implied probability) or better in order to bet it at a 2% edge compared to what I consider a break-even price (32%).

If you want to get in tinfoil-hat mode, I think MLB sent some juiced up baseballs to Yankee Stadium to make this thing happen over the past few days; the ball is absolutely flying out of that park.

The Oswaldo Cabrera grand slam yesterday had a .760 xBA and the Stanton slam had a .790 XBA on Tuesday. The ball just seems to be going about 10-15 feet further than it should over the past few days.

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