ALDS Game 2 Player Props: Carlos Carrasco Over/Under Six Strikeouts?

Credit:

Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco (59) reacts with catcher Yan Gomes (7) in the first inning against the Chicago White Sox at Progressive Field.

Matt LaMarca

Oct 06, 2018, 02:53 PM EDT

There are two props offering value in Saturday's ALDS games between the Cleveland Indians and Houston Astros (4:37 p.m. ET, TBS) and New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox (8:15 p.m. ET, TBS)
This piece will focus on Andrew Benintendi, Miguel Andujar and Carlos Carrasco

Prop bets can be a great way to get action on a game. Bookmakers don’t have to worry about taking a lot of action on them, so there isn’t as great an incentive to post a competitive line.

As a result, props can be some of the most exploitable bets on the board.

These props can become downright unfair when you combine them with the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool.

We leverage props from five of the most popular sportsbooks against our projections and award each prop a grade. The most exploitable props earn a Bet Quality of 10 out of 10, and those props have historically crushed during NBA and NFL season.

Saturday’s props focus on MLB, specifically the ALDS showdowns between the Indians and Astros at 4:37 p.m. ET and Yankees and Red Sox at 8:15 p.m. ET. Both contests will be broadcast on TBS.

Let’s dive in to two props that I feel are offering significant value.

Red Sox OF Andrew Benintendi vs. Yankees 3B Miguel Andujar

The pick: Benintendi more total bases (-115)

Both of these batters appear to be in nice spots today. The Yankees are taking on David Price, who has been their personal whipping boy for the past few seasons.

He’s been roughed up in four starts vs. the Yankees this season, resulting in an astronomical ERA of 10.34. Andujar will also be on the positive side of his batting splits after posting a .341 wOBA and .245 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months.

That said, Benintendi might be in an even better spot against Masahiro Tanaka. He owns a superior splits-adjusted wOBA at .376, and Tanaka has surrendered six HRs in just 19.0 innings vs. the Red Sox this season.

Benintendi also has the edge in Vegas data, and his biggest edge comes in the lineup: He’s expected to bat second for the Red Sox, while Andujar is expected to bat seventh. An extra at-bat for Benintendi could ultimately be the difference.

Zylbert: Can Carlos Carrasco Contain Astros’ Live Bats in Game 2?Read now

Astros P Carlos Carrasco

The pick: Over six strikeouts (+100)

Carrasco struggled to start the season, but has looked as dominant as ever over the second half. He’s posted a 2.52 ERA since the All-star break, while increasing his K/9 to 11.99.

He’s been even better which pitching away from Cleveland, owning a FIP of just 2.13. The Indians will need a big performance from him to avoid falling behind 0-2 in the series, so expect them to lean on their star pitcher.