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Angels vs. Rangers Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Mike Trout, Angels to Jump On Texas Early (Tuesday, May 17)

Angels vs. Rangers Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Mike Trout, Angels to Jump On Texas Early (Tuesday, May 17) article feature image
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Carmen Mandato/Getty Images. Pictured: Los Angeles Angels star Mike Trout.

Angels vs. Rangers Odds

Angels Odds -130
Rangers Odds +115
Over/Under 8.5
Time 8:05 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Texas Rangers look to keep the ball rolling Tuesday after handing Los Angeles Angels starter Noah Syndergaard a first-inning exit in a Monday night’s 7-4 win.

The teams combined for nine runs in the first inning, but Jon Gray was able to mitigate damage and took home his first win as a Ranger.

The Angels will turn to Reid Detmers, fresh off his no-hitter against the Tampa Bay Rays a week ago. The Rangers will match with a southpaw of their own in Taylor Hearn.

So, can the Angels even the series at a game apiece on the back of their rookie southpaw or will the Rangers steal another one at home in this spot?

Los Angeles Angels

There’s no denying Detmers has all the potential in the world. 

The no-hitter was obviously a step in the right direction and huge accomplishment, but it’s one that might blind fans from his otherwise sluggish start to the season. 

The southpaw sits right around league average in hard-hit percentage, xERA, barrel rate and xBA, among other metrics. Despite a no-hitter, his xERA for the season sits at 3.84 and his xFIP (4.36) is a half-run higher. 

Opponents also have a .174 BABIP versus Detmers, which is an unsustainable number and should negatively regress toward league average BABIP of around .300 this season.

One thing to note is Detmers is lights out against lefties. In 26 at-bats, he has given up just one hit — a single — while striking out four. He has limited right-handed hitting, too, as they slash .205/.283/.373 against Detmers. 

On the road this season, Detmers has given up eight runs over eight innings, compared to a sparkling 1.96 ERA at Angels Stadium. He does draw a weaker Texas offense, which could play into his favor.

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Texas Rangers

Taylor Hearn is a bit of an enigma in 2022. The left-hander enters off back-to-back strong outings, giving up just two runs over 10 innings, but he grades out poorly when it comes to advanced metrics. 

Outside of his above-average strikeout rate, Hearn struggles with location and is in the bottom three percent in barrel rate. He also ranks in the bottom 15 percent of all pitchers in hard-hit percentage, xERA, xwOBA and chase rate.

Opponents have a .293 xBA against Hearn, who has only had success with his four-seam fastball this season.The rest of his pitches have been ineffective, to put it lightly:

Hearn doesn’t have a significant advantage when facing a lefty either. Despite a lower average, left-handed hitters have a higher slugging percentage against Hearn. Right-handed hitters get on-base more often, hitting .295 with a .385 OBP this season.

There aren’t many signs pointing toward positive regression or a quick turnaround for Hearn, who’s xERA (5.97) remains over a half-run higher than his actual ERA (5.26) overall.

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Angels-Rangers Pick

I think there are two angles you can take when playing this matchup.

The first, which is my favorite play in this game, is backing the over. I do think Detmers has a chance to kickstart his no-hitter into a strong rookie season, but his underlying metrics do alarm me a bit.

Tack on the fact that the Rangers have slightly more success against left-handed pitching, and I think Texas should be able to score a few runs on Detmers.

And of course, for every reason I mentioned earlier, I think Los Angeles is going to be able to beat up on Hearn. Over the last 14 days, the Angels rank inside the top 10 in wRC+ and are hitting the ball better.

A favorable matchup against a southpaw who has been hit hard all season is the perfect recipe for an early exit for Hearn.

The other angle is backing the Angels over the first five innings. The Rangers bullpen isn’t bad by any means, but I think there’s a clear advantage with Detmers on the mound compared to Hearn.

At nearly an even price, you can get Detmers and the Angels offense — both the better options — against Hearn and the Rangers offense over the first half.

Back the Halos in the first half en route to another high-scoring bout.

Pick: Angels F5 ML (-120 | Play to -130) | Total Over 8.5 Runs

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