The Cincinnati Reds host the Philadelphia Phillies on July 8, 2026. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on ESPN.
The Reds are favored by +139 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Phillies are +168 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Phillies vs Reds prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Phillies vs Reds Prediction
- Phillies vs Reds Pick: Under 9 & Chase Burns 7+ Strikeouts (+122, DraftKings)
My Phillies vs Reds best bet is a same-game parlay featuring the Under and Chase Burns' strikeouts. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Reds Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -103 | 9 -104o / -116u | -168 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -117 | 9 -104o / -116u | +139 |
- Phillies vs Reds moneyline: Phillies -168, Reds +139
- Phillies vs Reds over/under: 9 (-104o / -116u)
- Phillies vs Reds spread: Reds -1.5 (-103), Phillies +1.5 (-117)
Phillies vs Reds Probable Pitchers
| TBD | Stat | Chase Burns |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10-1 | |
| fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.9 | |
| ERA / xERA | 2.40 / 3.03 | |
| FIP / xFIP | 3.29 / 3.35 | |
| K-BB% | 21.8 | |
| GB% | 36.7 | |
| BABIP | .268 | |
| Stuff+ | 113 | |
| Location+ | 101 |
Phillies vs Reds MLB Betting Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
Kyle Schwarber grew up in Middletown, Ohio, just about 40 minutes from Cincinnati, and attended the University of Cincinnati before becoming a first-round pick. As a free agent last winter, Schwarber considered the Reds before returning to the Phillies on a five-year deal. However, he wasted no time becoming an enemy in his hometown again.
Schwarber capped the third inning with a two-run shot to give the Phillies a 3-0 lead. It was Schwarber's 31st of the season and 14th in 51 games at Great American Ball Park. Though the Phillies added another run in the eighth inning, the third inning was all they would need the way Zack Wheeler was dealing last night.
Wheeler tied his career high with 14 strikeouts while allowing four hits, one earned run and not a single walk in seven innings. While Wheeler had a great matchup against the Reds, who can be strikeout-prone, he was also motivated by being snubbed for the NL All-Star team. Apparently, going 9-1 with a 2.28 ERA, 98 strikeouts in 87 innings and a 4.3 WAR is not good enough to make it while playing in the host city. However, it was good enough to help the Phillies pull within two games of the Braves in the NL East.
After having their two aces go back-to-back, there is uncertainty as to who is starting for the Phillies tonight. Alan Rangel had been filling the fifth spot in the Phillies' rotation as both a bulk reliever and traditional starter, but he was optioned to Triple-A last week with just one turn left in the rotation before the All-Star break.
If it is a bullpen game, the Phillies did add reinforcements by activating Brad Keller. The 30-year-old has a 4.15 ERA in 30 1/3 innings this season.
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview
Andrew Abbott earned a quality start last night but was outdueled by Wheeler. Tonight, the Reds figure to have the pitching advantage with Chase Burns getting the start. Last time out, Burns improved to 10-1 by defeating Jacob Misiorowski and the Brewers. He allowed four hits and two earned runs in six innings but struck out just four. It was just the second time in his last 10 starts that Burns failed to strike out at least seven batters, and his line sits at 7.5 tonight.
On Saturday night, Burns earned his first trip to the All-Star Game and joined an exclusive club in the process. He became just the sixth pitcher to be selected to the All-Star Game within two years of being drafted over the last 20 years. He ranks in the top 10 in wins, ERA and strikeout rate while ranking 13th with 116 strikeouts this season. He fanned nine against the Phillies in May while allowing just one run on three hits in six innings.
If one of the Phillies gets to him today, it will likely be one of their left-handed batters — Schwarber, Bryce Harper or Brandon Marsh. Burns has a higher strikeout rate against lefties, but his walk rate increases to 11% and his OPS to .700, compared to .523 against right-handed batters. Of the 12 home runs he has allowed this season, 10 have come against left-handed batters.
The Reds have scored four runs or more in eight of Burns' last nine starts. However, they have not been as generous to their other starters. Since the start of June, they are averaging just 3.6 runs per game and are just 11-21 in that span. They have fallen to 26th in MLB in runs scored.
They got Elly De La Cruz back from the IL recently, but he has just one home run and a .622 OPS since returning. Meanwhile, other notable impact bats like Sal Stewart and JJ Bleday have been quiet as well.
Phillies vs Reds Pick, Betting Analysis
In the last 10 meetings, these teams are 2-7-1 to the under, and eight of those games finished with fewer than 10 runs. That included a 4-1 victory started by Burns. While Burns is more hittable against left-handers, the Phillies' left-handed-heavy lineup is also a good matchup for him.
Burns has a 31.8% strikeout rate against left-handed batters and already struck out nine against the Phillies, who rank fifth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers. That should help Burns reach at least seven strikeouts for the ninth time in 11 starts. When combined with under 9 runs, we get plus odds on the two-leg parlay.
Picks:
- Under 9 (-101)
- Chase Burns 7+ Strikeouts (+117)
