The New York Mets host the Arizona Diamondbacks on April 9, 2026. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on ARID and MLB.TV.
The Mets are favored by -162 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Diamondbacks are +136 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Diamondbacks vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Diamondbacks vs Mets Prediction
- Diamondbacks vs Mets Pick: Nolan McLean Strikeouts Ladder
My Diamondbacks vs Mets best bet is a Nolan McLean Strikeouts ladder (from over 5.5 to 9+). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Diamondbacks vs Mets Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 7 -110o / -110u | +136 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +132 | 7 -110o / -110u | -162 |
- Diamondbacks vs Mets spread: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-160), Mets -1.5 (+132)
- Diamondbacks vs Mets over/under: 7 (-110o / -110u)
- Diamondbacks vs Mets moneyline: Diamondbacks +136, Mets -162
Diamondbacks vs Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) | Stat | RHP Nolan McLean (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | 1-0 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 0.00/2.24 | ERA /xERA | 2.61/2.29 |
| 2.59/3.55 | FIP / xFIP | 3.57/3.67 |
| 0.92 | WHIP | 0.87 |
| 10.9% | K-BB% | 19.5% |
| 60% | GB% | 37.5% |
| 87 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 108 | Location+ | 109 |
Diamondbacks vs Mets Preview
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview
With a strong WBC and no earned runs over his first 12 innings, it seems Eduardo Rodriguez is on the verge of a career renaissance, but it’s more likely a 100 point drop in BABIP (.329 – .229) is at least partially responsible. Still, give credit for having not yet allowed a barrel with a 25.7% Hard Hit rate against the Dodgers and Braves.
He’s been more changeup heavy (34.9%) to start the year, cutting 20 points off his fastball usage (27.8%). The change grades as a stud pitch (58 PB, 114 P+) so far, but less about what he’s throwing than where he’s throwing it. A 3.91 Bot ERA and 99 Pitching+ are his best marks since 2021 with the improvements entirely in the command/location department.
E-Rod has managed just a 10.9 K-BB% and 8.2 SwStr% against two of the top NL offenses.
He’s had good stretches and even years before. Peripherals suggested he was a better pitcher than his results last year, yet still below average (4.48 SIERA, 4.51 xERA, 5.02 ERA).
The Mets posted a 98 wRC+ against LHP last year. Thursday’s projected lineup also averages a 98 wRC+ vs LHP since last year after replacing Soto with the struggling left-handed Carson Benge.
This game’s most interesting matchup may be that changeup against Francisco Alvarez, who’s 6.0 wCH/C is second best to Jacob Wilson in MLB among those with at least 150 PA since last season. Alvarez has also been a top 10 fastball hitter (2.9 wFA/C) among that same group. We’re talking about a hitter who smashes nearly two-thirds of the opposing pitcher’s arsenal.
Rodriguez doesn’t set up strongly against any other Mets from a pitch arsenal run value perspective (what he throws and how often he throws it vs how the opposing batters handle those pitches) except Tyrone Taylor (and Carson Benge in a small sample – if he even plays).
No one may give him as much trouble as Alvarez, who’s off to a red hot start (195 wRC+ before Wednesday’s game), though Francisco Lindor and Mark Vientos may also fare well here.
A strong base running lineup (proj. LU +8 BRR LY) has just two negative runners (Bo Bichette -3 and Alvarez -1). Rodriguez and Gabriel Moreno are a slightly above average combo in stopping the running game.
Where Arizona should shine is defensively, led by Moreno (8 Fielding Run Value) and Corbin Carroll (7) with Ketel Marte the likely weakest spot on the board (-1).
The bullpen projects middle of the league via Fangraphs depth charts (3.97 ERA/3.98 FIP), but with their best pieces on the IL, while the active group has posted a 6.02 ERA/4.69 FIP so far.
New York Mets Betting Preview
I’m excited about the opportunity to talk about Nolan McLean, who’s path to the majors (drafted as a position player by the Mets with a slow climb up the prospect rankings) very much resembles that of Jacob deGrom, so let’s get to it.
There you go. Onto offense.
Arizona had a 110 wRC+ against RHP last year with the projected lineup at just 96 since last season (after key lineup losses) and a team 78 wRC+ that’s fourth worst in baseball overall to start the year. (You’ll see why later.)
They’re a strong base running team (proj. LU +10 BRR), but that’s mostly tied up in Carroll (+10) and Geraldo Perdomo (+5). If Alvarez sits after playing both afternoon games in this series, it could hurt the Mets offensively, but would also shut down the Arizona running game.
McLean is about neutral at holding runners, but Luis Torrens is the best in the league at gunning them down. He led the league by three Catcher’s CS Above Average (12), which is a counting stat, despite starting only 72 games in 2025.
The New York bullpen projects a bit better than Arizona (3.80 ERA/3.86 FIP), but has been far sharper to start the year (1.45 ERA/3.27 FIP), despite going to extras in nearly half their games so far.
Wednesday’s blowout loss served the purpose of resting the relief corps, using just Sean Manaea after the entire corps got involved Tuesday following Monday’s off day.
The Mets are a net neutral projected defensive lineup, though the two main culprits (Bichette -10, Vientos -6) have switched positions where they should be better off. This is also the only aspect where Soto’s absence may be a positive. Benge, Robert and Taylor should be a fantastic outfield.
Moving on to our final analysis…
I kid. You can’t possibly stop me from extensively lauding Nolan McLean's virtues, though his greatest asset, pitch movement, may also be his biggest detriment early in his career. His pitches move so much that sometimes it’s too much. He posted double digit walk rates above A ball and 8.7% in 58.1 major league innings so far.
That would be fine in concert with his 30.1 K% from a pure run prevention standpoint, but could be an obstacle to pitching deep into games. McLean threw five no hit innings in San Francisco last time out, yet only recorded one sixth inning out, due to pitch count (93).
He’s also been a ground ball machine for the most part (54.7% MiLB last year, 61.1% MLB, but just 37.5% in 2026).
McLean has a 56+ PitchingBot pure stuff grade on five of six pitches, including an 80 grade curveball. Stuff+ only sees the curveball as elite (128), though the entire arsenal merits a 116 Pitching+ overall.
Oh, and his velocity is also up a full mph on his fastball (96.6) and 1.6 mph on that curve (81.6) over last year.
Not a single projected Diamondback comes close to a positive pitch run value matchup against McLean with only Carroll hitting the curveball well enough (2.6 wCU/C) to present something approaching problematic.
Diamondbacks vs Mets Picks
In this WBC rematch with completely different backgrounds for these pitchers, what it may come down to is how some interesting swing rate metrics play out.
Arizona has the second highest chase rate in the league thus far (34%). There’s more of a gap between them and fourth place (1.3 points) than fourth and 11th.
You might be surprised to learn that this is not something McLean has excelled at…yet (just a 22.6 O-Swing%).
What he does lead the majors in since his debut, among those with at least 50 innings pitched, is Called Strike rate (20.7%) by a full point ahead of Brady Singer (19.7%).
Sometimes, this is an unsustainable outlier, but in McLean’s case, you can see why it’s probably not.
Other long term outliers that come to mind are Bartolo Colon with an impeccable ability to dot corners with his fastball and Adam Wainwright with his strike stealing curve, which the Mets still remember.
Now, here’s the odd thing. Despite all the chasing, Arizona has the 11th lowest swing rate in the league (45.7%) AND the fourth highest CStr rate (17.9%). Swing at balls, take strikes.
There’s your fourth worst offense in the league. A 26.2 Z-O-Swing% is the sort of thing pitchers dream of. (McLean’s 32.4% last year is best of any pitcher going Thursday by the way.)
Despite the defensive upgrade, the loss of Soto does some damage to the overall prospects of his team. I give the Mets the win a bit more than 60% of the time when adjusting the bullpen gap a bit wider than Fangraphs season projections and have a very similar outlook for the first five innings.
Unfortunately, the full game market sits on either side of that number. If you squint, you can see a bit of daylight between the market and my number for the Mets F5. Hardly enough to be actionable.
In a negative run environment (94 Park Run Factor), a Wednesday night forecast of temperatures in the mid-40s with a light wind out to left could drop the offensive output close to 10% further, putting me close to 7.5 with a neutral Erich Bacchus behind the plate if the normal umpire rotation holds.
Again, exactly where the market sits there too.
What I am most interested in here is McLean’s strikeout props, due to the extreme plate discipline numbers discussed.
Therefore, I’m not specifically endorsing McLean to merely beat his 5.5 posted total (-110 FD), I’m climbing the ladder (7 +168, 8+ 320, 9+ 640) because it may be a mark he blows past if swing trends hold true.
To be honest, the actual prop may be about fair. McLean could have poor command on a cold night where the Diamondbacks hold the bats and go under nearly half the time, but it’s also a potential dominance spot where Arizona gets twisted into a pretzel and doesn’t know what blew past them.
I want to take advantage of McLean potentially reaching his ceiling in what may be the ideal matchup for it.
I don’t hate a SGP combo with an Alvarez H+R+RBI or TB prop either, though with a lower weather influenced total, I won’t officially recommend an offensive prop.
Pick: Nolan McLean Strikeouts Ladder (Over 5.5, o.44u / 7+, 0.3u / 8+, 0.2u / 9+, 0.1u)
