We have a short six-game slate for this Thursday, but we still have three best bets for your degenerate enjoyment.
Read on for our MLB picks and predictions for Thursday, April 9.
MLB Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12:10 PM | |
  | 1:40 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Reds vs Marlins Moneyline Picks
Starting with the pitching matchup, the Reds have a sizable advantage in this one.
Cincinnati’s entire rotation has been terrific, and Rhett Lowder is probably underrated due to some of the other names around him. It is a small sample size for sure, but a 1.30 ERA to start his career is hard to ignore.
Lowder is more than a thrower; he is a pitcher. He won’t overpower hitters but mixes speeds and locations to keep hitters off balance. Lowder is coming off a six-inning shutout performance against the Rangers in his last time out. He has made just eight career starts and has held his opponents scoreless in five of them.
Miami likely has the advantage on offense right now, but Cincinnati is due for better results at the plate. They currently sit last in the league in scoring. However, we know about the talent in this lineup, and they are at least hitting the ball hard.
Last season, the Reds ranked 28th in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. Weak contact is what killed them last year. This season, though? Cincinnati ranks fifth in the league in average exit velocity. Elly De La Cruz, Tyler Stephenson, and Sal Stewart are crushing the ball.
Yet, they rank just 27th for BABIP. Expect that number to rise if they continue to hit the ball hard. The Reds currently rank 27th with a .281 wOBA, but their xwOBA is .310.
They also have the lowest team batting average with runners in scoring position by a pretty wide margin, hitting just .186 with RISP.
Everything points toward a team that is just getting unlucky at the plate and due for some positive regression.
Max Meyer has looked like nothing more than a back-of-the-rotation starter since getting drafted in the top five. He should provide a good matchup for a Cincinnati lineup that can hit the ball hard. Meyer has allowed a 14.4% barrel rate this season, an issue he has struggled with his whole career. When guys make contact against Meyer, they smoke it.
Stephenson and De La Cruz are already a combined 5-for-9 with two doubles and a home run against Meyer in their careers, and I expect them to do some more damage on Thursday.
Pick: Reds ML (+102 or Better)
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Tigers vs Twins Moneyline Prediction
By Frank Ammirante
Here we have the better team on paper, reasonably priced favorites, as they try to avoid a four-game sweep at the hands of a projected bottom-feeder in the AL Central.
The number of bets and percentage of money show increasing support for Detroit heading into today's first pitch.
The Tigers also have the edge in starting pitching, as Jack Flaherty is much more proven than Mick Abel.
Despite his intriguing potential, Abel has been ineffective throughout his time in the big leagues so far, dating back to last season.
On top of that, Detroit has the fresher bullpen.
Another interesting angle here: this is a day game after a night game. It's getaway day for both teams. After dropping the first three, it feels like the Tigers will have more urgency for this one.
On the other hand, the Twins may opt to rest a couple of regulars to get ready for a weekend in Toronto, since they already won this series.
With that in mind, we'll ride with the Tigers in this one.
Pick: Tigers ML (-135 or Better)
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Rockies vs Padres Over/Under Picks
By Kevork Mahserejian
Both teams are off to a slow offensive start and have one of their better early-season starters on the mound.
Randy Vasquez has been impressive through two starts. He has a 0.75 ERA, 3.54 xERA, 3.20 xFIP, and 3.23 SIERA thus far. His average fastball velocity is up one MPH, while his groundball rate is up to a staggering 64.5%.
Vasquez's career groundball rate is 40%, yet he is third among starters to begin this season!
This number may not be maintained at this level throughout the season, but it is not crazy to keep it up through a third start.
Meanwhile, the Rockies will rely on their most talented starting pitcher for the bulk of today. Chase Dollander's average fastball velocity is also up one MPH, and he has some results to go along with it.
His 21.6% K-BB and 52.2% groundball rate are impressive, albeit through 8 1/3 IP. This is the range of numbers necessary to succeed in the harsh conditions of Coors Field.
Even with a 5.40 ERA and 4.57 xERA, there is reason for optimism that Dollander may take a step this season to average starting pitcher territory, if not higher.
Regardless, Dollander is not pitching in Coors today; he is pitching in MLB's fifth-friendliest ballpark for pitchers (according to StatCast rolling averages).
Between these potentially improved starters, the Padres' arctic offense, and this being the Rockies' first game away from Coors without a day off, we will not expect many runs tonight in San Diego.
Pick: Under 8 (-110 or Better)
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