The San Diego Padres host the Arizona Diamondbacks on July 8, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on ARID.
NL West rivals Arizona and San Diego will continue an important four-game series on Tuesday when Merrill Kelly (3.55 ERA, 104.0 IP) takes on Nick Pivetta (3.25 ERA, 97 IP).
Find my MLB betting preview and Diamondbacks vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction
- Diamondbacks vs Padres picks: Over 7.5 Runs (-114 at DraftKings, Play to -125)
My Diamondbacks vs Padres best bet is Over 7.5 Runs (-114). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Diamondbacks vs Padres Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -198 | 7.5 -114o / -106u | +113 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 7.5 -114o / -106u | -137 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Merrill Kelly (ARI) | Stat | RHP Nick Pivetta (SD) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-4 | W-L | 9-2 |
| 1.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.3 |
| 3.55 / 3.96 | ERA / xERA | 3.25 / 3.83 |
| 3.47 / 3.49 | FIP / xFIP | 3.26 / 3.46 |
| 1.09 | WHIP | 1.04 |
| 17.6 | K-BB% | 21.6 |
| 43.9 | GB% | 32.0 |
| 91 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 103 | Location+ | 112 |
Nick Martin’s Diamondbacks vs Padres Preview
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview: Bullpen Concerns Continue
Tuesday's matchup will arguably feature the two starters who have brought the most value to their respective teams this season, with Kelly taking on Pivetta. With that in mind, it's not overly surprising that Arizona currently sits one game below .500 and will likely be a seller at the deadline.
The consensus among the major projection systems was that Kelly would pitch to an ERA just below 4.00 this season. The veteran righty leads all Diamondbacks starters with 104 innings pitched and has been critical to a staff that has dealt with numerous key injuries, coupled with some disappointing results from those who have been healthy.
Kelly's expected numbers this season are quite close to what most systems projected at the start of the year. He holds a 3.96 xERA and 3.49 xFIP and a strikeout minus walk rate of 17.6%. His Stuff+ rating of 91 and Pitching+ rating of 95 are identical to 2024, when he finished with a 4.03 ERA across 73 and 2/3 innings of work.
Throughout Kelly's last five starts, he's allowed a batting average of .257 and has been hard-hit 44% of the time, holding an ERA of 3.86. His pitch metrics are down considerably in that span, with a Stuff+ rating of 88 and a Pitching+ rating of 88.
Arizona's bullpen has been a concern this season, pitching to the third-worst ERA in baseball and allowing the third-highest hard-hit rate. Over the last 30 days, it has allowed an ERA of 4.22.
After finishing the 2024 season ranked first in runs scored per game and third in wRC+, the Diamondbacks lineup has once again been quite productive and will provide a tough matchup for Pivetta. The Diamondbacks rank fourth in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching this season and hold a wRC+ rating of 112 versus righties over the last month of play.
Ketel Marte was held out of the series opener due to right groin tightness, but manager Torey Lovullo stated that Marte had a good chance of playing in Tuesday's matchup following last night's game.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Positive Regression Looming
The Padres had strong scoring opportunities in each of the final three innings of last night's series opener but were unable to capitalize and earn a come-from-behind victory. San Diego ranks 27th in OPS+ this season with runners in scoring position, which has ruined an otherwise sound offensive process.
San Diego held the fifth-highest wRC+ rating versus right-handed pitching in 2024 but ranks 18th in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching this season.
Over the last 30 days, it holds a wRC+ of 101 versus right-handed pitching and a wRC+ of 91 with runners in scoring position. During that span, it has a BB/K ratio of 0.80 with RISP but holds a 29th-ranked BABIP of .223.
The Padres currently have zero position players on the IL and are a likely candidate to produce more effective offensive results in the near future.
Pivetta arguably deserved to be named to the All-Star game based on his 3.24 ERA in 97 innings of work. He holds a 3.83 xERA and 3.46 xFIP and a strikeout minus walk-rate of 21.6%. Throughout his last five starts, he has a 3.45 ERA, with a Stuff+ rating of 97 and a Pitching+ rating of 107.
Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Diamondbacks have been excellent offensively once again this season and feature a deep lineup that is capable of finding success versus a quality starter in Pivetta.
While Kelly has been one of the few bright spots among the Diamondbacks pitching staff this season, he's been getting hit effectively recently, and the underlying metrics suggest his stuff has not been very good in those outings.
The Padres were one of the most productive teams in baseball last season and will likely be among the best offenses in the second half if they start to find more average results with runners in scoring position.
A matchup versus Kelly and a weak Diamondbacks bullpen gives San Diego's offense a good chance to bounce back after a disappointing performance in the series opener, and I believe we will see it push past its implied team total in this matchup.
At -114, there looks to be value in backing this matchup to feature over 7.5 runs, and I would bet it down to -125.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (-114 at DraftKings, Play to -125)
Moneyline
At -135, my lean would be with the Padres, as Kelly has not been as sharp as his recent ERA suggests, and I believe the Padres lineup is going to be much more productive the rest of the way.
Run Line (Spread)
At a price of +160, I would also lean with the Padres in terms of betting the run-line, especially as they could have a good chance of building on a late lead if the Diamondbacks opt to save their higher leverage relievers.
Over/Under
As outlined, my favorite bet from this matchup is backing over 7.5 total runs.
