Tuesday’s MLB Over/Under: Handicapping a Godley Showdown in the Desert

Credit:

Joe Camporeale -USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Zack Godley

I said I wanted a full four-game Memorial Day Weekend sweep, and that is exactly what we got after yesterday’s Mets-Braves Under 8 bet cashed in the first game of their doubleheader. If you’re keeping track at home, that’s 8-1 over my last nine. Let’s keep it going on this Tuesday night.

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 37-19-2, +15.7 units

Yesterday’s Result: Mets-Braves Under 8 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit


Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks | O/U: 8

9:40 p.m. ET

Probable Pitchers: Luis Castillo (4-4, 5.34 ERA) vs. Zack Godley (4-4, 4.53 ERA)

Have the Diamondbacks finally snapped out of their prolonged slump at the dish? Yesterday’s series opener between these two National League clubs would seem to indicate that: Arizona racked up 12 runs after scoring a combined 13 runs in its previous seven games.

Before beginning this three-game set opposite the Reds, Arizona had lost 15 of 17, scoring three runs or fewer in all but three of those games. So, is the D’backs’ lineup getting back on track?

That remains to be seen, but  tonight’s competition will be much tougher. Instead of drawing Homer Bailey on the mound, the D’backs will match up with Castillo, a hard-throwing youngster.

After a bit of a concerning start to his second season in the bigs, Castillo has rebounded nicely entering tonight’s start, having recorded at least five innings while impressively surrendering two runs or fewer in each of his past five outings.

What’s the difference? The 25-year-old is starting to strike out more batters. Castillo, who has seen his K rate dip a bit in 2018 thus far, has accumulated 31 Ks in his past five starts, spanning 28.2 innings. He may also begin to benefit from a regressing batting average on balls in play, which currently sits at .311, one of the unluckier marks in the league. Castillo should definitely also benefit with Paul Goldschmidt out of the starting lineup tonight.

Godley, Castillo’s counterpart in this one,  could also use a little bit of better fortune, as he’s been saddled with an even worse .315 BABIP. He’s due for some better days ahead, though: His 4.53 ERA is not fully indicative of his performance.

Fortunately, we’ll be getting Godley at his home digs here, where he’s apparently more comfortable based on his significantly better 2.92 ERA in four starts at Chase Field. He’s also registered a much lower WHIP in front of the home fans (1.14) compared to on the road (1.90). This falls in line with a glaring trend involving the D’backs, who own a 3.21 ERA at home, tied for fourth-best in the majors. That metric indicates the addition of the humidor at Chase Field has certainly lived up to expectations.

As a fan of this 28-year-old since he first came up three years ago, I am simply also banking on a bounce-back effort after Godley allowed eight runs (six earned) in only 3.1 innings his last time out. When a hurler such as Godley experiences an extreme low such as that one, I expect him to respond in a positive manner. A rare Diamondbacks May win last night could also relieve the right-hander of some pressure that the team has been dealing with recently.

Play: UNDER 8 (-105)

Follow on me Twitter @MattZylbert

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