Tuesday’s MLB Over/Under: Thor Faces Old Team For Second Time

Tuesday’s MLB Over/Under: Thor Faces Old Team For Second Time article feature image

Jun 4, 2017; New York City, NY, USA; Mr. and Mrs. Met perform during the seventh inning stretch between the New York Mets and the Pittsburgh Pirates at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

OK, I’ve experienced plenty of horrifying bad beats over my career doing baseball over/unders, but last night was about as bad as it gets, as we lost on a pinch-hit, two-out, ninth-inning inside-the-park home run by Tyler Saladino?? Yikes. Can’t dwell on them, though, so let’s just move on to Tuesday.

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 27-15-2, +10.3 units
Yesterday’s Result: Brewers-Diamondbacks Under 8, Guerra vs. Corbin (loss)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Mets
7:10 p.m. ET
Probable Pitchers: Jaime Garcia (2-2, 5.40 ERA) vs. Noah Syndergaard (2-1, 3.09 ERA)

As good as Syndergaard has been thus far in 2018, having allowed more than three runs only once in his eight starts, it still feels like the 6-foot-6 right-hander is capable of much more, and apparently that has been noticed by new pitching coach Dave Eiland, who recently said that Syndergaard is “yet to do a whole lot at the major league level.”

I definitely don’t agree with that assessment for Thor’s four-year career, as he is a former All-Star and looked like an NL Cy Young candidate as recently as two years ago. Last season, of course, he got off to an excellent start before an injury sidelined him for the final four months, but despite not having picked up a win in more than a month, Syndergaard has still been exhibiting all of the tools that make him one of baseball’s best aces. If anything, Eiland’s comments should fire up the 25-year-old and help ensure he’s on his game once again this evening.

There couldn’t be any more incentive for Syndergaard, who for the second time in his career, will be facing the team that drafted him. In the first meeting back in June of 2015, things couldn’t have gone better, as he cruised through six innings of one-run ball, yielding a grand total of four baserunners and striking out 11. And going into that matchup, he was quoted as saying, “It’ll be kind of cool to pitch against the team that traded me.”

That figures to be the mind-set once again for an extra hungry Syndergaard, who will be making his first start in nine days after his start on Saturday night was postponed due to rain and pushed back to tonight. For his career on six or more days of rest, Thor has churned out a 2.84 ERA and 1.04 WHIP to go with 11.1 K/9. You know he’s itching to get on the mound for this assignment, and that’s a good thing. Let’s also recall that Syndergaard is 15-10 in 37 career starts (and one relief appearance) at Citi Field with a 2.70 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 10.4 K/9.

Garcia doesn’t nearly have his counterpart’s pedigree, but he’s still in a good position to put up some positive results. One, he’s about to face the worst team in baseball against left-handed pitching, as the Mets have struggled with their team batting average (.203), on-base percentage (.285) and slugging percentage (.283). They’ve also hit by far the fewest homers (three) with a lefty on the mound as well, which could be of great assistance to Garcia, someone who has already allowed eight long balls in his seven starts. At least in this outing, he’ll be dealing with an opponent that hits one out against a left-hander just once every 95.3 at-bats.

It’s already been tough for the Mets, who are on an 8-17 tailspin entering this series. In those 25 games, they plated three or fewer runs 16 times. Tonight, not only will they be facing someone who has fared well against them — Garcia has a 3.18 ERA in 10 career starts against the Mets — but they’ll also be trying to give it a go without their star slugger, Yoenis Cespedes, who is out with a mild strain of his right hip flexor. That’s huge when analyzing the outlook of the Mets lineup.

Expect some rain in the very beginning of the evening, which could delay this contest a couple of hours, but we shouldn’t worry about any such precipitation during the proceedings. Once both these hurlers get on their game, the under looks like the more likely result.

Play: UNDER 7.5 (-120)