Astros vs. Diamondbacks Betting Odds & Picks: Does Favorite Have Value?

Astros vs. Diamondbacks Betting Odds & Picks: Does Favorite Have Value? article feature image

Katelyn Mulcahy/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Framber Valdez.

  • The Astros are a road favorite over the Diamondbacks in Wednesday afternoon MLB action.
  • Jules Posner believes the market is underrating Framber Valdez and thinks the Astros will win big in this one.
  • Get his full Astros vs. D'Backs preview and pick below.

Astros vs. Diamondbacks Odds

Astros Odds-155
Diamondbacks Odds+125
Over/Under9 (-115 /-105)
Time3:40 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Houston Astros continue their opening-week road trip on Wednesday afternoon as they close a brief two-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

As of Tuesday, the Astros come into tonight's match up mashing against right-handed pitching so far in 2022, and they'll look to keep that rolling against Arizona starter Merrill Kelly.

The probable starter for the Astros is ace du jour Framber Valdez, who threw 6 2/3 scoreless innings on Opening Day against the Angels.

Astros Bats Are Unsurprisingly Thriving

The Astros are off to a solid start, as to be expected. However, they've really been doing damage against right-handed on the road. Houston is slugging to the tune of a .248 ISO entering Tuesday night, but in total it was third in MLB so far in team wRC+ against righties on the road among teams with over 100 plate appearances.

Obviously, that's a small sample and not every team has played on the road. Given the Astros' personnel and track record, though, they may be in line to put up some runs in Arizona.

On the mound, Valdez is coming off an excellent road start in his 2022 debut. This seems to be a trend for Valdez, who posted a 2.88 ERA and 3.86 FIP on the road in 2021.

Additionally, the Astros bullpen entered Tuesday night's game with a 1.88 ERA with a 2.76 FIP to start the year. They're going to be tough to score against.

Can Kelly Get Support From Arizona 'Pen?

The Diamondbacks are off to an expectedly slow start, dropping three of their first four games to the Padres entering these games against the Astros.

Arizona's one saving grace here is that Kelly is on the hill at home, where he seems to thrive. The right-hander sports a 3.46 ERA and 3.38 FIP in his career at home. He's also coming off a solid four innings of shutout ball in his first start of the season against San Diego.

Unfortunately, the Astros are really good against righties, and the Diamondbacks bullpen was the third worst unit in baseball last season. Although the Arizona relief corps is off to an OK start this season, a lot of things get off to an OK start. Namely, most of my romantic relationships.

Also, you know who isn't good against left-handed pitching? The Diamondbacks. They've really struggled in their limited appearances against southpaws so far this season.

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Astros-Diamondbacks Pick

The Astros are excellent. The Diamondbacks are not. Despite arguably their best home pitcher starting the game tomorrow, Arizona doesn't seem to have a great chance in this one.

Sportsbooks may have been a little slow to post odds because Valdez was not officially announced as the starter. Once he's officially on the lineup card or announced, though, expect Houston's moneyline to lose any possible value.

Considering the whole picture here, it seems like the best value and play in this matchup should be the Astros run line. It's at +105 now but is definitely worth taking as long as it's plus money.

Pick: Astros -1.5 (+105)

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