On Sunday, we have our usual 15-game slate, starting with Mets vs. Braves at Truist Park at 12:30 PM ET and closing with Red Sox vs. Angels at Angel Stadium at 9:30 PM ET.
Our experts have analyzed the matchups and found great options for today.
Below are 5 expert MLB best bets today for Sunday, July 5.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12:30 PM | |
  | 1:35 PM | |
  | 3:00 PM | |
  | 4:30 PM | |
  | 9:30 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tony Sartori's Mets vs Braves Best Bet
By Tony Sartori
The Mets hand the ball to right-hander Nolan McLean, who is a strong candidate to back. Coming off a promising first taste of MLB action in 2025, McLean has picked up right where he left off.
This success is likely to continue against the Braves, a team he has pitched well against. In two meetings, McLean is 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP.
New York won both of those games.
If Atlanta’s offense is neutralized in this matchup, it could struggle, especially with left-hander Martín Pérez slated to take the mound.
Pérez has been hit hard in each of his past two outings. Over that stretch, he is 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP.
Furthermore, the current Mets roster has had success against Pérez. In 77 combined plate appearances, they own a .328 batting average, a .422 slugging percentage and a .386 wOBA.
Read Sartori's full Mets-Braves analysis here:
Pick: Mets ML (-100 or Better)
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Derek Carty's Twins vs Yankees Prop Pick
By Derek Carty
There is a value opportunity on the Yankees' Trent Grisham's home runs prop.
THE BAT X is projecting 0.34 home runs for him with a 29% chance that he records at least one home run. If you can get the over at +400 or better, there is great value here.
This play is good down to at least +279.
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty's sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
Pick: Trent Grisham Home Run (+340)
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Sean Zerillo's Phillies vs Royals Projection
By Sean Zerillo
With two starting pitchers like Aaron Nola and Luinder Avila flashing ERAs well north of 5.00, high WHIPs and highly potent offenses on both sides, this game has all the ingredients for a high-scoring shootout.
Projections show solid value on the total for today, picking the over as the best choice for this Phillies vs. Royals matchup.
If you want to dive deeper into this matchup, it'd be wise to check out BARTOLO, my new PRO baseball tool that gives you access to all the input data he uses to project games every day.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-120)
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Sean Paul's Marlins vs Athletics Best Bet
By Sean Paul
Eury Perez control is an issue for the Marlins, as he's walking a career-high 3.69 batters per nine innings. Another issue is the long ball, as he's surrendering a career-worst 1.61 HR/9. Perez fully embraces the pitcher's vision of Joey Gallo's role as a three-true-outcomes player, striking out 10.03 batters per nine.
Miami has found a lot of success on the offensive end of late, boasting a 122 wRC+ over its last 18 games, ranking fifth best in the league. The Marlins rank in the top 12 in three key categories: walk rate (8.7%), strikeout rate (21%) and home runs (24).
When looking at this line, I'm a bit surprised the total has yet to reach double digits. I'm going with over 9.5 runs in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league, with two very strong offenses. Even if Jump dominates, the Athletics' bullpen will give up a few runs.
Meanwhile, the Athletics should be able to take advantage of Perez's home run woes on a sunny day in Sacramento.
Read Paul's full Marlins-A's breakdown here:
Pick: Over 9.5 (-108)
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Red Sox vs Angels Featured Bet Labs System
By Bet Labs
This system targets Sunday MLB games where the home team is coming off 1–2 consecutive overs, suggesting recent offensive outperformance or inflated totals, which is the case for this matchup after the Red Sox defeated the Angels 8-1 on Saturday.
The theory is that on Sundays — often the final game of a series and an early start — teams may rest key hitters, lineups can be inconsistent, and pitchers often perform better against lineups they’ve already seen.
With an opening total in the 8 to 9.5 run range, the line is high enough to offer under value when offensive regression is likely.
Betting the under in these specific setups has historically yielded a positive ROI over time.Taking Unders with moderate totals (8 to 9.5) in Sunday games with home teams on an Over streak.
Sunday games usually wrap up the series and played during the day, usually after a night game. Hitters may tend to be worn out by the end of the week, and collectively as a league, players tend to take their rest days on Sundays, so there's an added advantage towards Unders.
Pick: Under 8 (-108)
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