The Baltimore Orioles host the Houston Astros on April 28, 2026. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 6:35 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on MASN.
The Orioles are favored by -138 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Astros are +115 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Astros vs Orioles prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Astros vs Orioles Prediction
- Astros vs Orioles Pick: Carlos Correa Over 0.5 Doubles
My Astros vs Orioles best bet is on Carlos Correa to go over his doubles total. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Astros vs Orioles Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +145 | 9 -103o / -115u | +115 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -175 | 9 -103o / -115u | -138 |
- Astros vs Orioles moneyline: Astros +115, Orioles -138
- Astros vs Orioles over/under: 9 (-103o / -115u)
- Astros vs Orioles spread: Orioles -1.5 (+145 ), Astros +1.5 (-175)
Astros vs Orioles Probable Pitchers
| RHP Kai-Wei Teng (HOU) | Stat | RHP Shane Baz (BAL) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 0-2 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 2.16/2.68 | ERA / xERA | 5.08/4.34 |
| 4.63/3.67 | FIP / xFIP | 3.69/4.46 |
| 15.6% | K-BB% | 10.3% |
| 43.9% | GB% | 37.4% |
| .154 | BABIP | .360 |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 103 | Location+ | 96 |
Astros vs Orioles MLB Betting Preview
The Astros enter Tuesday with an 11-18 record, a mark that has frustrated fans but intrigued analysts. Despite the slow start, Houston’s underlying metrics tell the story of a sleeping giant. The Astros currently lead the Major Leagues in doubles and rank near the top of the AL in team batting average.
The bright spot for Houston has been Kai-Wei Teng. Through the early stages of 2026, Teng has been a revelation, carrying a 2.16 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP. He’s shown elite command, forcing hitters into soft contact and keeping the ball in the park.
For Houston to climb out of the AL West basement, they need Teng to continue this dominance while their offense—led by the returning Carlos Correa and a surging Christian Walker—starts turning those gap hits into runs.
The Orioles (13-15) are currently treading water in the competitive AL East. Injuries have thinned out their rotation and middle-order depth, but the star power of Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman remains a constant threat.
Baltimore hands the ball to Shane Baz tonight, who has struggled to find his rhythm this season. Baz enters the contest with a 5.08 ERA and a bloated 1.55 WHIP. He has been prone to high pitch counts and has struggled with "traffic" on the bases—a dangerous recipe against a Houston lineup that prioritizes contact and extra-base hits. The Orioles will need their bullpen to be ready early if Baz can’t find the strike zone against a disciplined Astros squad.
Astros vs Orioles Pick, Betting Analysis
Our PRO Projections have identified a massive edge on Carlos Correa to record a double (+235). The value here lies in the specific pitcher-batter matchup and Correa’s current batted-ball profile.
Since returning to Houston, Correa has refined his approach, posting a 44.3% Hard-Hit Rate (ICR) so far in 2026. He isn’t just making contact; he’s driving the ball into the gaps.
Baz’s 1.55 WHIP is also key. He allows a high volume of baserunners, often falling behind in counts. When Baz is forced to come into the heart of the plate to avoid walks, Correa is exactly the type of veteran hitter who punishes those "get-me-over" fastballs.
While the "Great Wall of Baltimore" in left field has robbed many of home runs, it has actually increased the frequency of doubles for right-handed hitters who can spray the ball into the deep left-center gap. Correa’s swing is built for this—look for him to find the grass early in the count.
Pick: Carlos Correa Over 0.5 Doubles
