Astros vs Phillies Game 4 World Series Picks
Photo Illustration by Matt Roembke. Pictured: Cristian Javier and Aaron Nola.
- The Phillies host the Astros tonight in Game 4 of the World Series.
- Philly looks for a 3-1 series lead behind Aaron Nola, while Cristian Javier looks to even things up for Houston.
- Continue reading for our staff's best bets for tonight's matchup in Philadelphia.
Astros vs. Phillies Game 4 Odds
|Time||8:03 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
Now for Game 4, Philadelphia looks to take a commanding series lead while Houston hopes to even things up ahead of Game 5.
It’s Cristian Javier vs. Aaron Nola in a sterling pitching matchup, and our analysts are all over it. We have five bets to recommend, including two plays on the total, two props, and one other, unique wager.
Here are our best bets for Game 4 of the World Series between the Astros and Phillies.
MLB Odds & Picks
Under 7.5 (-115)
Odds via PointsBet
Charlie DiSturco: When I saw the opening lines of this game I couldn’t help but ask myself, ‘How is this total so high?’ So I snagged the 7.5 right away.
This is the perfect spot to buy low on Aaron Nola after the Astros scored five runs over 4 1/3 against the right-hander in Game 1. It’s almost like everyone forgot about his 6 2/3 shutout innings to clinch the playoff berth against Houston in early October.
I wouldn’t be worried about Nola’s recent struggles. He has been excellent all season long and ranks inside the top 10 percent in hard hit rate and has an incredible 3.6 BB%. His expected indicators also sit well below his 3.25 ERA, down in the mid-to-high 2s.
Opposite him is Cristian Javier, who I personally believe has the best stuff among the Astros rotation. He was incredible in his third big league season, with career bests in xBA (.168), xSLG (.286), K% (33.2) and xERA (2.43).
Javier was thrown into Game 3 of the ALCS unexpectedly after Lance McCullers was given an extra day of rest. He dominated, throwing 5 ⅓ shutout innings of one-hit ball. Javier has shored up on both his barrel rate and walk rate — two weak points from a season ago — and has a sub-2 ERA since the All-Star Break.
The total for last night’s game closed at 7.5, but that featured a matchup between Ranger Suarez and McCullers, both of whom are worse than Nola and Javier. Not to mention that neither team had to exhaust their high-leverage arms because of the Phillies’ blowout victory.
I love the under here and would bet it down to 7. We’re getting two of the best arms in the World Series with well-rested bullpens to follow.
D.J. James: After a 7-0 throttling, the Houston Astros will put forth Cristian Javier to face Aaron Nola. Javier is the best starting pitcher on the Astros and somehow has not been given a chance to start earlier than Game 4. He owned a 2.43 xERA in the regular season with a 33.2% strikeout rate. Nola is a pitcher of the same aptitude with a 2.74 xERA and 31.6% strikeout mark.
The Astros’ bullpen is one of the best in baseball, even if they took a step back on Tuesday night, but the Phillies’ bullpen is turning it on at the right time. They have been solid in the World Series and have their best starter on the bump to eat up at least five or six innings.
Lastly, the Astros do not hit righties well. They held a 98 wRC+ from August 1 to the end of the season. Yordan Álvarez looks like he may be dealing with some discomfort at the plate and the bottom of the lineup has a significant drop-off from the top.
The Phillies, however, did well against righties in that same timeframe (107 wRC+), but this is a team who has a tendency to chase (fourth-worst in MLB). Look for Javier to offset his shortcoming of walking too many hitters with some strikeouts.
Take the under in this game. Both pitchers are far too strong for this line. Play it to 7 (-130).
Aaron Nola Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-105)
Odds via DraftKings
Doug Ziefel: In Game 1 of the series, we saw the Astros hit Aaron Nola hard. Of the 13 balls put in play against him, nine of them had exit velocities over 88 mph. That amount of hard contact should have equated to more hits, but fortunately for Nola, a few of those balls were right at fielders.
However, that level of contact is concerning for Nola heading into this outing, as his stuff was as good as it gets in Game 1. Every single one of Nola’s pitches was up by at least one mph in velocity and at least 100 rpm in spin. If Houston was able to do that amount of damage against his best stuff, what will it look like if his stuff regresses tonight?
Even with Houston’s excellent hard-hit rate in Game 1, it wound up with six hits off Nola, but tonight regression will be in their favor as Nola’s stuff will likely not be the same as it was, and the Astros were due for more hits then. So I’m expecting them to replicate their performance at a minimum tonight.
Lastly, this number is too low for Nola. Yes, he’s been excellent this season, and he’s given the Phillies tremendous length on a consistent basis, but the longer he’s in the game, the better our chances get. Nola allowed five or more hits in 63.9 percent of his starts this season. That gives us -176 implied odds that he will go over again tonight.
Aaron Nola Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)
Odds via DraftKings
Kenny Ducey: I was all over the other side of Aaron Nola’s strikeout prop last game, claiming he’d go over 5.5 punchouts for a fourth straight game this postseason. Well, I was wrong, and I think this time I ought to be right.
So, I’m going with Nola to go under his strikeout total. Why? Well, the Astros quietly have just a 22.5% strikeout rate during the World Series despite hitting just .218 and looking rather sluggish at the plate.
My thinking here is also that the Phillies have been reluctant to send a pitcher out the third time through the order against the Astros and have a completely rested bullpen behind Nola. It doesn’t seem like it would make much sense for them to send him out past the fifth inning, or to complete the sixth, given those two factors.
Houston has been putting the bat on the ball even if it hasn’t been going anywhere, and it has already had success against Nola and kept him under 5.5 strikeouts in this series. It would seem this is a rare moment to short the Phillies’ front-line stud.
Third Inning – Under 0.5 Runs (-150)
Odds via DraftKings
Jim Turvey: I love zagging off the classic No Runs – First Inning bets. I am targeting the third inning on Wednesday night because these are two lineups where the heart of the order is even more of a threat than typical.
Houston and Philadelphia have a particularly large delta between the top and bottom of their orders, and given that I am on the under for Game 4, it should indeed be the bottom of the order expected up in the third inning.
Avoiding names like Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, J.T. Realmuto and Bryce Harper, while targeting names like Chas McCormick, Bryson Stott and Martin Maldonado is the goal.
Typically, in a spot like this where runs are expected to be at a premium thanks to a pair of stud starting pitchers (both Javier and Nola rank among the top 10 in baseball in numerous advanced metrics), a No Runs – Third Inning bet would be more around -180 to -200.
So with books mostly offering this at -150 to -160 right now, there’s a lot of value to be had.