Astros vs Yankees Odds, Picks, Prediction for ALCS Game 4
Logan Riely/Getty Images. Pictured: Yordan Alvarez #44 of the Houston Astros.
Astros vs. Yankees Game 4 Odds
|Over/Under||6.5 (-120 / +100)|
|Time||7:07 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
Are we going to see a sweep?
The ALCS looked like it was going to be a battle of Goliaths, but instead it has been incredibly lopsided. The Astros won Game 3 by their biggest margin yet, squashing the line you have heard a thousand times: The series doesn't start until the home team loses.
Well, even if the series has just "started," it's about to end if the Yankees can't win Game 4 at home on Sunday.
With their backs against the wall, the Yankees will turn to Nestor Cortes.
Houston Astros: Is a Sweep Coming Sunday?
The Astros moved to 6-0 in the postseason with their 5-0 win over the Yankees in Game 3. Their previous five wins were by a total of seven runs, so it was nice for them to get some breathing room, but they've looked like an unstoppable machine so far this October.
And for those who have been paying attention to this team the past seven months, it's not shocking how they've been doing it. They simply have so much pitching depth that it's borderline impossible for the opposition to score.
On Sunday, they'll turn to Lance McCullers to stifle the Yankees. Ironically, given how well Houston has pitched, I actually like the Yankees to make some noise in Game 4.
McCullers is one of the most unique pitchers in baseball. He throws either a slider or curveball on over half his pitches, and when the lights are brightest, he often turns to those two even more. He's had one start this postseason, and in it he threw 46 sliders and 11 curves over 78 pitches.
The Yankees love sliders and curves. They were second in all of baseball against sliders this season and fourth against curves. In particular, their two righty mashers love those two pitches. Aaron Judge posted an insane .440 xwOBA against right-handed sliders and curves, with Giancarlo Stanton posted a .352 xwOBA, which is well above league average.
With the movement of those pitches and the ability of those two to poke the ball over the short porch in right, I'll be looking at those them both in terms of total base and home run props.
New York Yankees: Can Yankees Extend Their Season?
So if the Yankees are going to be able to score runs, should we look to their moneyline, which opened between -120 and -133?
Not so fast my friend. Just as the Yankees are a good fit for McCullers, the Astros are a pretty good fit to hit Cortes.
Cortes has already made two starts this postseason and he has been good on paper, allowing just three earned runs over 10 innings. However, if we dig a little deeper, he's been tap-dancing on landmines a bit, with just five strikeouts and four walks in those 10 innings.
Of course, that's a tiny sample to base any sort of analysis on and Cortes has consistently posted a lower ERA than FIP.
But beyond his past performances, the Astros just match up well with Cortes. The Astros were the second-best team in baseball against lefties this season. Cortes relies heavily on his cutter, which is where this analysis gets a little funky.
The Astros were one of the worst teams in baseball against cutters this season, but here's where folks have to be careful just blindly going by pitch run values. If we take it down to just lefties with cutter, the sample is small enough that, even over the course of a full season, it could be extremely noisy. The reason I say that is because the Astros have been notoriously good against cutters in seasons past. In fact, from 2017-2021, they were the second-best team in baseball versus cutters.
This year's roster is a little different, but looking strictly at production against left-handed cutters since 2017, there are some impressive numbers (Yordan Alvarez at .406 xwOBA, Jeremy Pena at .395, Yuli Gurriel at .368 and Jose Altuve at .325).
I love getting plus money on the over for the first five innings at 3.5 +100 (BetMGM). Both lineups should handle the starter well and this is a reasonable number to target.
I'm also going to play over 1.5 total bases for Stanton, Judge, Alvarez, Pena and Gurriel, and a light sprinkle on Judge, Stanton and Alvarez homers.
All of this offense in the game script also makes for a tempting same-game parlay. It's always better to play those in high-scoring games since the books –rather unfairly — won't let bettors bet on things not happening with nearly as many options. SGP options aren't out as of this writing, but check the app to see if I land on one Sunday morning.
Pick: First five innings over 3.5 runs +100 (BetMGM)