The Houston Astros (60-42) will host the Athletics (42-62) in the MLB tonight. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on MLB Network.
The Astros return home from a 6-game road trip sitting top of the American League standings after completing a 3-game sweep of the Diamondbacks. Houston is a slight favorite in tonight's series opener versus the Athletics, as recently recalled righty Jason Alexander is expected to face off against Luis Severino.
Continue below for my Athletics vs Astros predictions and MLB picks for Thursday, July 24, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Athletics vs Astros Prediction
- Athletics vs Astros pick: Jose Altuve Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125)
My Astros vs. Athletics best bet is Jose Altuve over 1.5 total bases, with the best line currently available at DraftKings. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Athletics vs Astros Odds
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 9 +100 / -120 | +105 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 9 +100 / -120 | -125 |
Nick Martin’s Athletics vs Astros Preview
Athletics Betting Preview
After finishing the 2024 season with a 3.91 ERA across 182 innings of work, Severino has taken a step backward with the Athletics, as he enters this matchup with an ERA of 5.10. He has slightly underperformed his xERA of 4.71 and xFIP of 4.69.
Pitching in home games at Sutter Health Park hasn't helped matters, as it has played as MLB's second most batter-friendly ballpark this season, and he holds a 6.68 ERA in his 66 innings of work at home.
Severino holds an ERA of 3.10 on the road this season, but the underlying numbers suggest the large disparity in home and road splits comes largely due to some more fortuitous luck on the road.
He holds a strikeout minus walk rate of 5.9% and an xFIP of 5.09 on the road, but has stranded baserunners at a much higher rate and allowed far fewer home runs.
In his last five starts, Severino has pitched to an ERA of 7.16 in 27 and 2/3 innings of work. He holds an xFIP of 5.37 in those outings, and has been hit hard 47% of the time (Hard-Hit Rate), and allowed an xBA of .297.
The Athletics' relief staff holds the second-worst ERA in baseball this season, but has been in better form over the last 30 days, ranking 14th in ERA and 14th in xFIP.
Jack Perkins and Sean Newcomb will likely be unavailable in this matchup, but the rest of the bullpen is in good shape.
Over the last 30 days the Athletics offensive play has been fairly mediocre, as they rank 18th with a wRC+ rating of 97, despite ranking seventh in slugging percentage in that span.
Houston Astros Betting Preview
The Astros have played to a record of 10-8 in the month of July, which has been enough to keep pace with the Mariners in the race for the AL West. They have scored an average of 5.5 runs per game in that span, and rank third in baseball with a wRC+ of 121.
Christian Walker's return to form has been a key storyline for the Astros offensively, as he's currently red-hot after an unproductive start to the campaign. In the month of July, Walker has slugged .515 and holds an OPS of .895 in 71 PAs.
Jose Altuve has also been one of the most productive players in baseball this month, having hit to an OPS of 1.122 and a slugging percentage of .687 in 78 PAs. He's struck out only 16% of the time in that span and holds an xBA of .290.
Altuve holds reverse splits so far this season, having slugged .478 in 356 PAs versus righties.
Altuve has fared well historically versus Severino, as in 32 at-bats he's averaged .313.
For a second straight season he has been considerably more productive at home, having slugged .526 with an OPS of .887 this season.
With Lance McCullers Jr. landing on the 15-day IL, Alexander is expected to get the start in this matchup.
Alexander has struggled to an ERA of .840 in MLB this season, with an xERA of 5.40 and an xFIP of 5.81. He holds a Stuff+ of 90 and and a Pitching+ of 88 in his MLB starts this season.
Alexander's results in Triple A have been a little more encouraging, as he has pitched to an ERA of 1.55 in 64 innings of work, though his xFIP of 4.96 suggest that he's been fortunate to manage such a strong ERA.
Houston's bullpen was projected to be among the best in baseball this season, and that has been the case recently as it has pitched to an ERA of 3.34 with an xFIP of 3.65 over the last 30 days.
Athletics vs Astros Prediction, Betting Analysis
Bet365's outlier price of +135 for Altuve to record over 1.5 total bases holds strong value in this matchup and is my favorite bet from the game if you can get it.
Altuve has been one of the league's hottest batters recently and gets a favorable matchup to continue his strong play versus Severino.
Altuve has been excellent at home this season and has hit Severino well historically, and while his splits will likely level out the rest of the way, he has also fared better versus righties than lefties.
If you cannot bet Altuve to record over 1.5 total bases at a decent number, I would pivot to backing both teams to score three runs at -140.
The Athletics have a great chance of putting together a decent offensive day in a matchup versus Alexander, while it would be quite surprising to see Severino and a mediocre bullpen shut down a Houston offense that has been in good form of late.
Pick: Jose Altuve Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Moneyline
Alexander has been shaky enough that a price of -125 to back Houston does not look to hold any value, and the prices on sides in this game look fair.
Run Line (Spread)
There does not look to be any value betting the run line.
Over/Under
There looks to be some value in betting this game to feature over 8.5 total runs at -125, but I prefer the option of backing both teams to score three runs at -140.
