Best MLB Bets Thursday | Expert Picks, Predictions (March 28)
Bryan Bennett/Getty Images. Pictured: Randy Arozarena
The 2024 MLB season is here and that means the return of the Payoff Pitch Podcast.
Payoff Pitch will come out every Monday, Tuesday and Friday during the regular season with our MLB analysts giving out their favorite bets from that day's slate. While Opening Day is on a Thursday, the crew was excited enough to release a special episode to break down the whole slate.
Listen to the latest episode and read their picks below.
Best MLB Bets Thursday | Expert Picks, Predictions (March 28)
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| PPD | Under 7.5 | |
| 4:10 p.m. | Rays ML -130 |
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Under 7.5 vs. Brewers
1:10 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
By Sean Zerillo
Editor's note: Brewers vs. Mets on Thursday has been moved to Friday because of inclement weather in New York, which was announced after the recording of the Opening Day podcast. However, the pitching matchup of Freddy Peralta vs. Jose Quintana will remain the same.
Good under weather here and this game may not even happen. The weather is a big part of this cap here.
It will be 50 degrees, drizzling and wind in from left field. Citi Field generally plays about 10% under the league-run average and should be an extra ~5% thanks to the weather.
The Mets have been a bad defensive team for a few years, but after Edwin Diaz's injury in last year's World Baseball Classic, the bullpen fell apart, whereas the Brewers are a phenomenal defensive team and that should continue.
The Mets cleaned up a lot of holes in big part to new general manager David Stearns. Stearns is really great at building rosters that are full of average to above-average players at every position, which should do wonders for them defensively.
The Brewers were second in defensive runs saved last year and should still have a top-10 bullpen even without Devin Williams for three months. Freddy Peralta was one of the best starters in all of baseball last season.
I projected this number at 7, and I think both teams set up for better defenses and bullpens, or at least comparable for the Brewers.
Rays ML -130 vs. Blue Jays
4:10 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB Network
I got pinged on Monday that one book had released odds for Opening Day and I searched for what lines looked off. I thought both this line and the Dodgers line looked weird and one of them has moved, the other has not.
The market did the same thing last year with this Rays team in undervaluing them early in the season. Zach Eflin gets the start and is projected for a 3.56 ERA, according to The BAT. He has had four straight years with an ERA under 4, and all his stats were better last season than Jose Berrios, who has a 4.43 ERA projection this season.
Eflin is the better pitcher by nearly a full run and Toronto is down a talented arm in the bullpen in Jordan Romano. If you look at both offenses, obviously you would think the Blue Jays have more star power, but they were only 7% better than the average league offense and 9% better on the road. Tampa Bay had better offensive metrics than them as well.
I don't see the advantage for the Blue Jays and I will be betting on Tampa often in these first few weeks.
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