BetMGM MLB NRFI Friday Best Bet | Royals vs Phillies (August 4)
Via Ron Schwane/Getty Images. Pictured: Jordan Lyles #24 of the Kansas City Royals pitches during the first inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on July 06, 2023 in Cleveland, Ohio.
As NRFI bets grow in popularity, many sportsbooks are taking advantage by offering promotions centered around the bet.
One of the most prominent to hit the market this season is BetMGM's NRFI Fridays.
So, how does this promo work? You can place a No Run First Inning bet of up to $50 on any Friday MLB game. If your bet loses because exactly one run is scored in the first inning, you get your stake back in bonus bets, up to $50.
In order to bet this promotion, you first need to "Opt In" to the promo via BetMGM's sportsbook. You can place the NRFI bet by betting "No" on the "Will There Be a Run in the 1st Inning?" market. If your bet loses, but one run is scored during the first inning, you'll receive a bonus bet back equaling your stake, up to $50.
Bonus bets will be reflected once the wager is settled, and the offer is only available on Fridays.
During this MLB season, I've regularly been breaking down my favorite NRFI/YRFI bets, and below, I'll give out my favorite BetMGM-specific NRFI wager in which I'd recommend using this bonus wager on.
BetMGM MLB NRFI Friday Best Bet for August 4
With a promotion like this — or any other where you have the potential to get something back if your bet loses — the goal isn't necessarily to win the bet. Holding expected value constant, we actually want the bets least likely to win. As an extreme example, a -1000 bet with this promotion would be a lot worse than a +1000 bet, assuming those odds reflect the true probabilities. The -1000 bet would rarely take advantage of the refund, so you might as well make that without the promotion.
This is a long way of saying I was very excited to find an even-money NRFI that I liked today. The Royals–Phillies game has a somewhat high implied total of nine, but nearly all of the run equity in the first inning is on the Phillies' side. That's a huge boost for this deal, since we wouldn't get the refund if both teams scored in the first inning.
The Royals are a bad offense in general, and Aaron Nola has been lights out his first time through the order. I'd make this bet even without the promotion, though, since Philadelphia ranks near the bottom of my database of "top heavy" teams on offense.
Royals starter Jordan Lyles isn't good at any point during the game, but he does do his best work early as well, with his first time through the order ERA of 5.31 nearly a full run lower than his overall ERA of 6.15.