Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Ryan Minion has that job for Wednesday, August 5.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 HRR
- Junior Caminero Over 1.5 TB
- Angels vs Orioles NRFI
- Orioles F5 ML
- CJ Abrams Over 1.5 TB
- CJ Abrams Over 1.5 HRR
- CJ Abrams Over 0.5 Home Runs
- Yankees ML
- Jazz Chisholm Over 1.5 HRR
Dodgers vs Cubs Picks
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -194 | 9.5 -104o / -118u | +106 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 9.5 -104o / -118u | -124 |
The Cubs and Dodgers will duke it out on Wednesday afternoon in what will be the last of a three-game series at Wrigley Field in Chicago.
In a thrilling lefty duel, Eric Lauer will take the mound for the Dodgers, while Shota Imanaga will start for the Cubs.
Across 22 appearances and 128 innings, Imanaga is running a rock-solid 3.67 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.
Lauer has not been so rock-solid, running a 4.50 ERA across 88 innings.
I want to fade Lauer against some of Chicago’s right-handed sluggers.
While Seiya Suzuki has just two hits across nine previous head-to-head at-bats against Lauer, I think he matches up well with Lauer’s low-90s fastball — a pitch Lauer throws a whopping 44% of the time with a .367 xwOBA against.
Pick: Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 HRR
Rays vs Rockies Picks
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +102 | 11.5 -110o / -110u | -154 |
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -122 | 11.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
The Rockies will host the Rays on Wednesday afternoon to conclude a three-game set at Coors Field in Colorado.
Given Coors Field’s status as a hitter-friendly ballpark, I expect Wednesday’s contest to be a prime spot to target player prop betting markets.
And I expect Junior Caminero to have a massive day at the plate against Tomoyuki Sugano.
Across 19 appearances and 103 frames this season, Sugano is running a 4.47 ERA after surrendering 51 earned runs. That said, his ERA is a product of his Mile High environment, and his 1.26 WHIP is more indicative of his true talent level.
Still, Caminero is one of the best hitters in baseball.
Sugano is a four-seam-heavy pitcher (21% usage), but he’s allowed a whopping .422 xwOBA on the pitch with just a 14% whiff rate.
That’ll be a problem against Caminero, who is slugging .671 against four-seamers this season.
Pick: Junior Caminero Over 1.5 TB
Angels vs Orioles Picks
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -196 | 8.5 -106o / -114u | +116 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 8.5 -106o / -114u | -136 |
The Orioles will host the Angels on Wednesday evening in the second of a three-game set at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore. Trevor Rogers will start for Baltimore, while Reid Detmers will start for Los Angeles.
While Rogers has a lackluster 4.27 ERA, his 3.43 botERA suggests he’s in better form than his surface-level numbers. His season has turned on a dime over the past two months, as he’s running a 2.21 ERA over his past 10 starts.
Like Rogers, Detmers has settled into a groove, having allowed just three earned runs over his past 16 innings pitched.
I expect a low-scoring ballgame in the early going, but I do think Rogers is the better of these two starters and will help the O’s jump out to an early lead at home.
Pick: NRFI | Orioles F5 ML
Nationals vs Phillies Picks
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 9.5 -115o / -105u | +138 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +132 | 9.5 -115o / -105u | -164 |
The Phillies will host the Nationals on Wednesday in the third of a four-game divisional set at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. Jake Irvin will start for Washington, while Andrew Painter will start for Philly.
I’m looking to fade Painter during this rough season, as he’s posted a whopping 6.72 ERA and 1.61 WHIP across 71 innings.
In three previous head-to-head at-bats against Painter, CJ Abrams has recorded a hit, and I expect he’ll find more success on Wednesday.
Abrams has fully broken out. He’s slashing .284/.360/.549 with 28 home runs and an MLB-leading 85 RBIs.
Painter is a four-seam-first pitcher (33% usage), but he’s allowed a whopping .429 xwOBA on the pitch with just an 11% whiff rate.
Meanwhile, Abrams is slugging over .600 against four-seam fastballs.
I’m all in on CJ in this battle.
Pick: CJ Abrams Over 1.5 TB & Over 1.5 HRR & Over 0.5 Home Runs
Cardinals vs Yankees Picks
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -166 | 8.5 -118o / -104u | +128 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +138 | 8.5 -118o / -104u | -152 |
The Yankees will host the Cardinals on Wednesday night to conclude a three-game interleague set at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. Will Warren will start for New York, while Andre Pallante will start for St. Louis.
Pallante has been better than Warren this season (3.72 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 119 IP), but Warren is a volatile pitcher who has had a few blow-up starts that have inflated his 4.14 ERA.
Under the hood, I project Warren as the better starting pitcher between the two.
Additionally, this Yankee lineup has fared well against Pallante (.391 wOBA across 50 head-to-head plate appearances).
One Yankee I expect to have a big game is Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Though he’s gotten off to a sluggish start this season, he’s started to see the ball better of late, and he’s already hit a homer off Pallante in the past.
Pick: Yankees ML | Jazz Chisholm Over 1.5 HRR
Minion's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, August 5
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 HRR
- Junior Caminero Over 1.5 TB
- Angels vs Orioles NRFI
- Orioles F5 ML
- CJ Abrams Over 1.5 TB
- CJ Abrams Over 1.5 HRR
- CJ Abrams Over 0.5 Home Runs
- Yankees ML
- Jazz Chisholm Over 1.5 HRR
