The Tampa Bay Rays host the Toronto Blue Jays on May 4, 2026. First pitch from Tropicana Field is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on RAYS.
The Blue Jays are favored by -120 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Rays are +101 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Blue Jays vs Rays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Blue Jays vs Rays Prediction
- Blue Jays vs Rays Pick: Jonathan Aranda Over 0.5 Home Runs
My Blue Jays vs Rays best bet is on Jonathan Aranda to go over his Home Runs total. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs Rays Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -205 | 8 -105o / -113u | +101 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +173 | 8 -105o / -113u | -120 |
- Blue Jays vs Rays moneyline: Blue Jays +101, Rays -120
- Blue Jays vs Rays over/under: 8 (-105o / -113u)
- Blue Jays vs Rays spread: Blue Jays -1.5 (+173), Rays +1.5 (-205)
Blue Jays vs Rays Probable Pitchers
| LHP Eric Lauer (TOR) | Stat | RHP Nick Martinez (TBR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | W-L | 2-1 |
| -0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 6.00/5.51 | ERA / xERA | 1.70/3.85 |
| 6.48/5.68 | FIP / xFIP | 3.63/4.42 |
| 5.7% | K-BB% | 10.2% |
| 22.1% | GB% | 38.9% |
| .256 | BABIP | .225 |
| 86 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 99 | Location+ | 105 |
Blue Jays vs Rays MLB Betting Preview
The Blue Jays (16-18) arrive in St. Petersburg looking to stabilize a rotation that has been ravaged by injuries. With Jose Berrios and Shane Bieber sidelined, the Jays turn to left-hander Eric Lauer, whose 2026 campaign has been a struggle.
Through 27 innings, Lauer has posted a 6.00 ERA with a concerning 1.48 WHIP. His underlying metrics are even more alarming for a matchup against a power-heavy lineup; Lauer currently sports a 57.0% fly-ball rate and a 36.4% hard-hit rate. When he isn't missing bats (6.67 K/9), he is yielding high-launch-angle contact, which has led to a bloated 2.33 HR/9 average this season.
Offensively, the Jays are leaning heavily on Kazuma Okamoto (9 HR, 22 RBI) as George Springer and Alejandro Kirk remain out of the lineup.
The Rays (21-12) are one of the hottest teams in baseball, winning 16 of their last 21 games. They boast a dominant 11-4 record at home and have a significant advantage on the mound Monday with Nick Martinez. Martinez has been a revelation this season, pitching to a 1.70 ERA over 37 innings with pinpoint command of his changeup arsenal.
Tampa’s lineup has been equally impressive, specifically Jonathan Aranda, who has evolved into a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat. Aranda leads the American League with 28 RBIs and has already tallied 7 home runs this season. He is coming off a four-hit performance on Sunday and appears to be in the "peak" phase of a power surge.
Blue Jays vs Rays Pick, Betting Analysis
We're backing Aranda to hit at least one home run. While he's a left-handed hitter facing a left-handed pitcher, this is a rare instance where the "lefty-lefty" narrative shouldn't put us off.
Eric Lauer’s 57% fly-ball rate is the highest among Monday's starters. In a controlled environment like Tropicana Field, fly-ball pitchers who lack elite velocity are highly susceptible to "barrel" events.
Aranda has hit 4 home runs in his last 15 games, including a multi-HR game late last month. His average exit velocity on fly balls this season is a career-high 105.8 mph.
With Aranda hitting in the heart of the order and leading the league in RBIs, he will see plenty of high-leverage strikes. If Lauer leaves an 89-91 mph heater in the upper half of the zone, Aranda has the bat speed to punish it.
Pick: Jonathan Aranda Over 0.5 Home Runs
