MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Blue Jays vs. Yankees Betting Preview (April 14)

MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Blue Jays vs. Yankees Betting Preview (April 14) article feature image

AP Photo/Frank Franklin II. Pictured: Aaron Judge

  • The Yankees host the Blue Jays as short home favorites on Thursday.
  • Which team will win the rubber match of this three-games series?
  • Tony Sartori breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Odds

Blue Jays Odds+105
Yankees Odds-125
Over/Under8.5 (-105 / -115)
Time7:05 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

We have an AL East matchup as the New York Yankees host the Toronto Blue Jays for the fourth and final game of this series. Each team has won a game through the first two with the under cashing in each contest. All the numbers given out below are from before Wednesday night's game.

Will the Yankees finish this series on a high note, or can the Blue Jays pull off the road upset?

Can the Blue Jays Turn It Around Against Severino?

The Toronto Blue Jays enter this contest having lost two of their last three games prior to Wednesday's matchup. Right-hander Kevin Gausman is the projected starting pitcher for the Blue Jays and had a rough outing in his season debut against the Texas Rangers as he gave up eight hits and three earned runs in just five innings.

Gausman will be in even more trouble in this matchup as his metrics were awful in that first outing. Through his first start, Gausman has a .343 xBA, .497 xSLG, and .357 xwOBA.

While that is obviously only from one game, Gausman also struggled mightily to end 2021 as he had a 4.42 ERA in the second half of last season. Gausman may also not get much run support as the Blue Jays are slated to go against right-hander Luis Severino.

In 50 career plate appearances against Severino, this Blue Jays lineup has a mere .128 batting average, .213 slugging percentage and .177 wOBA. Going on the road against a division opponent is always a tough task, let alone going against a pitcher with whom no one in this lineup has had success.

Severino Looks To Get Going

The New York Yankees enter this contest having won three of their first five games this season prior to Wednesday's matchup. As I mentioned, right-hander Luis Severino is the projected starting pitcher for the Yankees in this matchup.

While Severino also struggled in his season debut as he gave up two earned runs on five hits in just three innings, his metrics are still better than Gausman's as his xBA is .277. Even if Severino does not pitch many innings, I trust New York's bullpen as they have gotten out to a hot start this season.

Currently, the Yankees' bullpen ranks second in the league in ERA, first in batting average and first in wOBA. New York should be able to give a good amount of run support in this game as well.

In 105 career plate appearances against Gausman, this Yankees lineup has a .321 xBA, .635 xSLG and .429 xwOBA. Against right-handers at home this season, New York ranks 10th in batting average, eighth in OBP, and ninth in OPS.

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Blue Jays-Yankees Pick

I like the Yankees to get the job done at home to end the series before heading on the road to Baltimore. Yankees should have the pitching and hitting advantages in this matchup, add home-field and we are getting a good price on the moneyline.

Toronto enters this season with a lot of hype, which means we will get generous prices on the opposing team, even if all the metrics suggest the Blue Jays will be at a disadvantage in certain matchups.

Pick: New York Yankees ML (-130) | Play up to (-140)

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